My girlfriend and I enjoy playing 25 cent 3-play NSU, which is the best
available to us here in San Diego that I know of. My question is how
much should we set aside for this? We typically split the bankroll and
play separately, in sessions. We are trying to identify an amount to
allocate for 2008 gaming. We also earn 0.5% cashback, $2.00=1 point.
Thanks!
Kelly Bankroll, 25cent NSUD 3-play
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rosemontwestwood"
<rosemontwestwood@...> wrote:
My girlfriend and I enjoy playing 25 cent 3-play NSU, which is the best
available to us here in San Diego that I know of. My question is how
much should we set aside for this? We typically split the bankroll and
play separately, in sessions. We are trying to identify an amount to
allocate for 2008 gaming. We also earn 0.5% cashback, $2.00=1 point.
Thanks!
Yeah, I can pencil it out, but you probably won't like the results.
Deuces variance is about 3 + 23/N where N is the number of hands
played, so 3-play is 3 + 23/3 = about 11.
Approximate Kelly is variance/advantage:
11/(-.003+.005)= 5500
3-play quarters looks like a bet per play of $3.75 .
5500 x $3.75 = $20,625!
That's the minimum, double that, about $40,000 would be the better
starting point.
rosemontwestwood wrote:
> My girlfriend and I enjoy playing 25 cent 3-play NSU, which is the
> best available to us here in San Diego that I know of. My question
> is how much should we set aside for this? We typically split the
> bankroll and play separately, in sessions. We are trying to
> identify an amount to allocate for 2008 gaming. We also earn 0.5%
> cashback, $2.00=1 point.
nightoftheiguana2000 replied:
Yeah, I can pencil it out, but you probably won't like the results.
Deuces variance is about 3 + 23/N where N is the number of hands
played, so 3-play is 3 + 23/3 = about 11.Approximate Kelly is variance/advantage:
11/(-.003+.005)= 55003-play quarters looks like a bet per play of $3.75 .
5500 x $3.75 = $20,625!
That's the minimum, double that, about $40,000 would be the better
starting point.
What NOTI identifies is a bankroll to protect against losses with
lifetime (infinite) play ... the double value provides what I expect
most deem a reasonable risk of ruin (based upon recent discussion).
It should be noted that this value presumes letter-perfect (or,
WinPoker perfect) play. Once you allow for even a modest error cost
(be it attributed to strategy errors, alcohol, distracting neighbor,
or the occasional tap on the shoulder) the value grows substantially.
However, your question asked about a specific set aside for your 2008
play. For a good answer to that (which I wouldn't be providing ;),
you would need to specify how many plays you expect to make (or
anticipated coin-in on the game for the year), plus what risk you wish
to take on that you might still bust out.
- Harry
Without bothering to calculate it precisely, you are playing a highly
volatile game, with a net +EV of 0.2% after cashback, with a bet size
of $3.75. My guess would be that you need somewhere in the
neighborhood of twenty thousand clams to achieve a tolerable risk of
ruin (less than 5%).
My guess is that you would probably not be comfortable with losing
even half of that, so I would think in terms of session bankrolls. I
would bring $600 with me to play this game for an evening. Losing that
can be frightfully easy, so if I was definitely going to play for a
long while (like if I had driven a long way to get there), then I'd be
more comfortable with $1000.
You should also be CERTAIN the two of you are playing PERFECTLY. A
couple of errors per hour will dissolve your tiny advantage and turn
the game into negative EV, at which point no Kelly Criterion can save
you.
tralfamidorgooglycrackers wrote:
Without bothering to calculate it precisely, you are playing a highly
volatile game, with a net +EV of 0.2% after cashback, with a bet size
of $3.75 ... I would think in terms of session bankrolls. I
would bring $600 with me to play this game for an evening. Losing
that can be frightfully easy, so if I was definitely going to play
for a long while (like if I had driven a long way to get there), then
I'd be more comfortable with $1000.
I think these are decent estimates, although my gut feeling is that
they are on the low side.
I fired up Video Poker for Winners for a reality check. $800 would
provide roughly 95% confidence of 3 hours total play. Of course, if
that were split evenly between OP and gf, one could generally expect
to bust out well within an hour.
Again, concerning the original question re a decent 2008 play bankroll
for the game, I commend VPW to the poster. The bankroll analysis
feature is ideally suited for questions of this nature.
- Harry
I disagree. I specified the Kelly Bankroll, that's the bankroll that
is able to achieve the maximum bankroll growth from this game,
starting with your next bet. If you think about it, if you start with
one bet, you could lose it all, so obviously your risk of ruin is
huge, and that can't possibly be optimal bankroll growth. If you start
with the bankroll of the Sultan of Brunei, you have no chance of ruin,
but you have almost no bankroll growth either. If you're already
stinking rich, what value is there in being slightly richer? The Kelly
Bankroll is the bankroll amount that acheives maximum bankroll growth.
On your next bet, right now! Kelly is about the here and now, not some
hypothetical infinite lifetime. Kelly also is not fixed, your next
optimal bet is determined by your current bankroll and the advantage
and variance of the bet you are considering taking.
ยทยทยท
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
What NOTI identifies is a bankroll to protect against losses with
lifetime (infinite) play ...
Chen and Ankenman's "Mathematics of Poker" has a good introductory
discussion of the mathematics behind Kelly Betting: "Chapter 24:
Growing Bankrolls: The Kelly Criterion and Rational Game Selection."
Harry Porter wrote:
> What NOTI identifies is a bankroll to protect against losses with
> lifetime (infinite) play ...
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
I disagree. I specified the Kelly Bankroll, that's the bankroll that
is able to achieve the maximum bankroll growth from this game,
starting with your next bet.
You're right -- I slipped a cog in that statement. The real point is
that a Kelly Bankroll doesn't address the question from the OP re how
much they should set aside against losses for their 2008 play.
rosemontwestwood wrote:
-> "My girlfriend and I enjoy playing 25 cent 3-play NSU, which is the
best available to us here in San Diego that I know of. My question is
how much should we set aside for this? We typically split the bankroll
and play separately, in sessions. We are trying to identify an amount
to allocate for 2008 gaming. We also earn 0.5% cashback, $2.00=1
point." <-
As I noted separately, additional info from the OP is necessary to
answer this question.
- H.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
> Harry Porter wrote:
> > What NOTI identifies is a bankroll to protect against losses
with
> > lifetime (infinite) play ...
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
> I disagree. I specified the Kelly Bankroll, that's the bankroll
that
> is able to achieve the maximum bankroll growth from this game,
> starting with your next bet.You're right -- I slipped a cog in that statement. The real point
is
that a Kelly Bankroll doesn't address the question from the OP re
how
much they should set aside against losses for their 2008 play.
rosemontwestwood wrote:
-> "My girlfriend and I enjoy playing 25 cent 3-play NSU, which is
the
best available to us here in San Diego that I know of. My question
is
how much should we set aside for this? We typically split the
bankroll
and play separately, in sessions. We are trying to identify an
amount
to allocate for 2008 gaming. We also earn 0.5% cashback, $2.00=1
point." <-As I noted separately, additional info from the OP is necessary to
answer this question.- H.
Thank you for your responses to my question! I had to scramble for
the smelling salts when Anne (girlfriend) saw the 20-40K figure.
Maybe I shouldn't have asked about the Kelly bankroll. I'm OK with a
$600-800 session bankroll. As far as coin-in, I would say 180-250K
yearly would be a fair estimate, although I should be tracking that a
little bit more carefully. Also, I suppose I could drop down to 3-5
lines and play dimes, but the best paytable is pseudo-NSU. At a
nickle, I'd rather watch paint dry.
Does this info help with my question of a set-aside amount? I do have
a yearly loss limit amount in mind.
Thanks! Eric
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rosemontwestwood"
<rosemontwestwood@...> wrote:
Thank you for your responses to my question! I had to scramble for
the smelling salts when Anne (girlfriend) saw the 20-40K figure.
Maybe I shouldn't have asked about the Kelly bankroll. I'm OK with a
$600-800 session bankroll. As far as coin-in, I would say 180-250K
yearly would be a fair estimate, although I should be tracking that a
little bit more carefully. Also, I suppose I could drop down to 3-5
lines and play dimes, but the best paytable is pseudo-NSU. At a
nickle, I'd rather watch paint dry.Does this info help with my question of a set-aside amount? I do have
a yearly loss limit amount in mind.Thanks! Eric
Dunbar's got a tool that will give an exact answer, but for that many
hands, using the normal approximation won't be far off:
$250K/$1.25 = 200,000 hands at 5 coin quarters.
1SD = SQRT(Variance x hands) = SQRT(26 x 200,000) = 2,280 bets =
$2,850 at 5 coin quarters.
So:
68% chance of plus or minus $2,850
95% chance of plus or minus %5,700
about a 2.5% chance of losing more than $5,700
The cashback barely covers the negative expectation of NSUD. Assuming
no mistakes in play.