2a. Just how random is Video Poker?
Date: Sat Jan 10, 2009 7:37 am ((PST))
...
B. As we sit and play for hours on end, it is obvious that the VP
programs have "gotcha" hands. For example, how many times does a
machine give you an 8 in place of a needed 3, or a 4 in place of a
needed Ace, etc. just to make you think for a split second that you got
what you needed! Clearly sadistic programmers at work, but how can
that be random?
Without keeping an actual count, my guess would be that a machine gives you an 8 in place of a needed 3 pretty much as often as you should expect one, on average.
Remember, while it is SOMETIMES the case that you need your 3 or 4 for a straight, it is more often the case that you need it to quad your 3-3's or 3-A's, in which cases the likelihood of getting what you need is considerably less than getting some other card that looks similar, such as the 8 or 4, since there are more of those left it the deck, because you've already used a bunch of the ones you want. If you look at how many are left of the card you need and how many are left of the cards that look similar (to you), it really shouldn't take a great big sample to approximate the predicted frequency with high probability.
NOW, on the other hand, have you noticed how often when you get four to a royal you have a made flush that you need to bust in order to make the correct draw...
...and how often you then proceed to get nothing at all...
...and...
--BG
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