First, to respond to your subject line, "random" mean unpredictable. There are not degrees of randomness. Either something is random, or it is not.
I completely understand the impact of paytables on machines, and how
they impact payback and ultimate profitability for players, but I am
still hung up on this idea of "random hands".A. How does the RNG work, i.e. does it select individual cards or does
it select the actual 10 cards that make up the hand?
The RNG does not select the cards to be shown. Rather, it is used to shuffle a simulated deck. The shuffling begins when a hand has been completed and any payoff made. It shuffles repeatedly until the next Bet button is pushed. Thus, the result is unpredictable, and since each unseen card always has equal probability of appearing the games can be analyzed for an optimum strategy and can be expected to operate that way.
B. As we sit and play for hours on end, it is obvious that the VP
programs have "gotcha" hands. For example, how many times does a
machine give you an 8 in place of a needed 3, or a 4 in place of a
needed Ace, etc. just to make you think for a split second that you got
what you needed! Clearly sadistic programmers at work, but how can
that be random?
What you suggest would not be random, but what you are "seeing" are what appear to the human mind to be patterns where there are none, just as we see faces and animals in cloud formations.
C. Most importantly, if hands are random, how do people like George
Maloof claim to operate the "Royal Flush Capital of the World (first at
Fiesta, then at Palms). The "random" nature of video poker would have
you believe that a casino can't control how often a royal is dealt, but
I highly doubt the Maloof's just happen to be lucky enough to have more
royals come up at their hotels than at another property. They are
obviously "setting" their machines to pay more royals.
There are more royals hit at Maloof's casinos for the simple reason that they offer more games with relatively attractive payoff schedules, thus attracting more players and more play. More play means more of every kind of final hand, including royals, just as more play on the craps tables would result in more frequent long hands. Also, unskilled players hit more royals than skilled players because their intuitive strategy is biased in favor of royal draws (but that bias means that they lose more even though they hit more royals.
I expect a lot of dispute on this subject, and I do want to believe
everything is totally random. What I can't get past is that it appears
some properties or mahines give more quads or royals than others, and
that is not because they are paying 45 vs. 35 for a full house.
Yes, certainly some machines give more royals than others, but that is because each game requires a different strategy for maximum payback. For example, the correct strategy for Jacks or Better will yield (on average) one royal per 40,390 hands, but the correct strategy for full pay Deuces Wild will yield only one royal per 45,282 hands. If you used Jacks or Better strategy to play Deuces Wild, you could expect one royal per 40,390 hands.
Looking forward to the responses!
Jeff
Hope this helps.
Dan
ยทยทยท
--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur