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JOB results

After doing some research on bankroll and risk of ruin, I decided to do some empirical work on the subject.

I ran sets of 4000 hands on winpoker in 9/6 job. I ran 100 sets and found some interesting results:

The lowest result was a loss of 1845 coins. The best result without a royal was 915 coins. I used the variance from winpoker and calculated the standard deviation and found the results were -2.807 sigma on the low end and plus 1.6 sigma on the high end. If I include the sets with a royal, the sigma goes up to almost 8. There were NO sets with results between 1.75 and 4.25 sigma.

I realize that the size of the set might be a factor in these results. What it did show me is that the results you will see are a little more tightly clustered around a mid point with the 1 in 40,000 hand spike from a royal. I plan to repeat this a couple of times and see if anything else of interest comes out of it.

Wouldn't -2.807 sigma on the low end equal to a loss of 4,012 coins?
Expectation is = 4,000 hands * (1-.995439) * 5 coins per unit = -91 coins
One Standard Deviation is = sqrt (4,000 * 19.51468) * 5 coins per unit = -1397 coins
So -2.807 sigma should be = - 91 - (1397 * 2.807) = -4012 coins.
Where is my mistake?
John
"John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@delphi.com> wrote:After doing some research on bankroll and risk of ruin, I decided to do some empirical work on the subject.

I ran sets of 4000 hands on winpoker in 9/6 job. I ran 100 sets and found some interesting results:

The lowest result was a loss of 1845 coins. The best result without a royal was 915 coins. I used the variance from winpoker and calculated the standard deviation and found the results were -2.807 sigma on the low end and plus 1.6 sigma on the high end. If I include the sets with a royal, the sigma goes up to almost 8. There were NO sets with results between 1.75 and 4.25 sigma.

I realize that the size of the set might be a factor in these results. What it did show me is that the results you will see are a little more tightly clustered around a mid point with the 1 in 40,000 hand spike from a royal. I plan to repeat this a couple of times and see if anything else of interest comes out of it.

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$ John T. Levandowski
$ Visit http://www.levandowski.net

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