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Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 MAY 2012

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 MAY 2012

"Multi-Strike Musings"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994</a>

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Jean and Brad must be one of the lucky ones that hit a couple of top line royals. It is not uncommon to lose over $5000 on a $1 9/6 MS in two hours. Come in the next day and do the same.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@...> wrote:

Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 MAY 2012

"Multi-Strike Musings"

http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994

<a href="http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994">
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=1994</a>

*************************************************
This link is posted for informational purposes
and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
discussion of the article must be done in
accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
*************************************************

"VpKing77" wrote:

Jean and Brad must be one of the lucky ones that hit a couple of
top line royals. It is not uncommon to lose over $5000 on a $1 9/6
MS in two hours. Come in the next day and do the same.

Lower that threshold to about $4K in 2 hours and I expect you're pretty much on target. (It's my guess, off the top off my head, that odds drop considerably for a >= $5K loss, considering that the wager-weighted variance of 4-level Jacks play is roughly on par with $5 single line play.)

For those appropriately bankrolled for $5 play, I wouldn't expect someone to deem $1 MS play "brutal". (Not saying that was your characterization, VPKing.) Bear in mind that even if you never see that approx 1:320000 top line hit, you're still playing with an ER that's close to playing the same game in single line format (albeit with volatility at something like 1.2x that of the total wager played on a single line game).

Still, I can understand why some people will drive expectation based on the somewhat misleading "$1" denomination of the game.

- H.

<XVP aside: As new Georgia denizens, we got our first taste of a Southern style hail storm early last evening. I've never witnessed anything like it in my 50 years in the north (Michigan/Pennsylvania). In a very localized 15 minutes unrelenting assault in Marietta, our lawns/gardens were solidly blanketed with a cover of gumball (1/3") sized hailstones.

Bev (with my able assistance) had potted eight mid-sized to large containers with flowers, adding to eight the previous weekend, as well as planting two new modest beds with herbs/perennials. In the first couple minutes of the storm, Bev expressed concern and I (expecting the hail to quickly dissipate, as had always been my experience) muttered something along the lines of, "what doesn't kill them will make them stronger".

My smugness quickly faded, as I watched stem and stalk battered down one by one as the stones accumulated with shocking speed. Next thing I knew I was failing in driving rain and hail around the deck and pool, grabbing containers two at a time and ferrying them to Bev on our enclosed porch. We then pried out the hail from amongst the stems and used a couple of hairdryers on low setting to mitigate the frost damage.

When the storm finally abated, the stones on the lawn had largely melted, leaving the beds still blanketed in what otherwise might have been mistaken as a fresh 1/4" snow cover. It was simply unreal.

I expect that when daylight breaks shortly, we'll discover the fate of the flowers in the larger urns left out last night. It's not gonna be pretty, but maybe the flowers will be hardier than I expect.

All I know is, having parked our cars on Philly streets the last 20 years, I'm damned thankful of our new garage!

- H.

<<For those appropriately bankrolled for $5 play, I wouldn't expect someone to deem $1 MS play "brutal".>>

I usually agree with you, vp wiz, but not this time - from the viewpoint of someone who has played thousands and thousands of hours of MS. Brad and I have the bankroll to play – and we do play – up to $250 a hand (mostly on multi-lines at the higher levels). We have a high tolerance for big losses – although we don’t think they are as much “fun” as wins. But we feel more frustrated more often with MS, even on the lower level of quarters, than on any other form of VP. “Brutal” is not a math term, I guess, but it describes our feeling when we go an extremely long time without a win, with many surprisingly large losses.

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Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

From: vp_wiz
Sent: Monday, May 07, 2012 3:20 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 6 MAY 2012

"VpKing77" wrote:

Jean and Brad must be one of the lucky ones that hit a couple of
top line royals. It is not uncommon to lose over $5000 on a $1 9/6
MS in two hours. Come in the next day and do the same.

Lower that threshold to about $4K in 2 hours and I expect you're pretty much on target. (It's my guess, off the top off my head, that odds drop considerably for a >= $5K loss, considering that the wager-weighted variance of 4-level Jacks play is roughly on par with $5 single line play.)

For those appropriately bankrolled for $5 play, I wouldn't expect someone to deem $1 MS play "brutal". (Not saying that was your characterization, VPKing.) Bear in mind that even if you never see that approx 1:320000 top line hit, you're still playing with an ER that's close to playing the same game in single line format (albeit with volatility at something like 1.2x that of the total wager played on a single line game).

Still, I can understand why some people will drive expectation based on the somewhat misleading "$1" denomination of the game.

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Jean, because my analysis has been largely theoretical/simulation and I have only limited time booked on the game, I can't help but to defer to your experience.

I can only suggest that the math aligns with a $1 4-level game as being roughly on par with $5 single line in terms of win/loss experience. From what I understand, your experience is sharply at odds with that expectation.

My limited play of the game isn't out of lack of interest ... the mechanics are such that in the venues I play it generally is only played at a disadvantage to single line play.

Even where similarly strong paytables are available, the .25% MS ER boost is dwarfed when play speed is considered. And, with my most viable options being $.25 MS vs $1 single line, MS comes out short as a consequence in terms of overall hourly EV and relative risk ($.25 MS has roughly 120% of the wager weighted variance of $1 single line).

So, in my case, I'm not drawn to it. (Give me a decent $.10 5-play MS paytable and I might change my tune ;).

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Queen of Comps" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

<<For those appropriately bankrolled for $5 play, I wouldn't expect someone to deem $1 MS play "brutal".>>

I usually agree with you, vp wiz, but not this time - from the viewpoint of someone who has played thousands and thousands of hours of MS. Brad and I have the bankroll to play â€" and we do play â€" up to $250 a hand (mostly on multi-lines at the higher levels). We have a high tolerance for big losses â€" although we don’t think they are as much “fun” as wins. But we feel more frustrated more often with MS, even on the lower level of quarters, than on any other form of VP. “Brutal” is not a math term, I guess, but it describes our feeling when we go an extremely long time without a win, with many surprisingly large losses.