Jazbo's Kelly betting for VP
For what it's worth, the estimated Kelly number for FPDW is
variance/(er-1)=3391. The actual Kelly number, using Jazbo's perl
script and independently verified with a spreadsheet, is 2924. Using
this number, the optimum Kelly bet is your bankroll (total money
you're willing to lose before you quit for good) divided by it, for
example if your bankroll was $5,000: the optimum Kelly bet would be
$1.71 . Or conversely, if you wanted to play 5-coin dollar deuces, the
optimum Kelly bankroll would be 2924 x $5=$14,620 . If you played
forever, until you busted out, your chances of busting out are
0.999346833^(2924)= 14.8% . However, to correctly use the Kelly
strategy, you should halve your bet if your bankroll is halved, for
example going down to a 50 cent machine, or double your bet if your
bankroll is doubled up, for example going up to a $2 machine.
Can someone give some rule-of-thumb bankrole guesstimates for each denomination? I've heard things like 4 or 6 royals. In other words, for $1 machines you should have enough to cover 4-6 royals or 4-6 times $4k equals $16k-$24k. I'm guessing game variance comes into play, so let's start with these games: 9/6 JOB, JWKings+, 10/7 DB, and 16/10 NSUD.
John
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OOps...negative games cannot be bankrolled. Let's assume that cashback etc makes those games positive.
John <john_oc_ca@yahoo.com> wrote:Can someone give some rule-of-thumb bankrole guesstimates for each denomination? I've heard things like 4 or 6 royals. In other words, for $1 machines you should have enough to cover 4-6 royals or 4-6 times $4k equals $16k-$24k. I'm guessing game variance comes into play, so let's start with these games: 9/6 JOB, JWKings+, 10/7 DB, and 16/10 NSUD.
John
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kelly bankroll estimate = variance/(er-1+cashback) bets
example: FPDW + .25% cashback:
bankroll = 26/(1.0075-1+.0025) = 2600 bets ($3250 on 5 coin quarters)
OOps...negative games cannot be bankrolled. Let's assume that
cashback etc makes those games positive.
John <john_oc_ca@y...> wrote:Can someone give some rule-of-thumb
bankrole guesstimates for each denomination? I've heard things like 4
or 6 royals. In other words, for $1 machines you should have enough to
cover 4-6 royals or 4-6 times $4k equals $16k-$24k. I'm guessing game
variance comes into play, so let's start with these games: 9/6 JOB,
JWKings+, 10/7 DB, and 16/10 NSUD.
John
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> John asked: Can someone give some rule-of-thumb bankroll
> guesstimates for each denomination?
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
kelly bankroll estimate = variance/(er-1+cashback) bets
example: FPDW + .25% cashback:
bankroll = 26/(1.0075-1+.0025) = 2600 bets ($3250 on 5 coin
quarters)
It bears noting that the "Kelly" bankroll determination is set at a
Risk of Ruin of ~ 11%. It's a calculation that's interesting when
comparing two games. But I don't benchmark my play at such a high
risk factor.
Everyone's risk tolerance varies, but ask yourself if you'd prep
yourself for a vacation in a manner such that the "risk of no return"
was 11%.
A relatively prudent starting bankroll in undertaking a game
represents no more than a 5% ROR (and ideally 1%-2%). These bankrolls
are much larger.
- Harry
Since ROR varies exponentially with the size of the bankroll, you
could define a "Kelly 5%" bankroll (multiply the base "Kelly"
bankroll" by 1.35), "Kelly 2%" (1.77), "Kelly 1%" (2.08).
Those are approximate numbers.
Don't forget that it doesn't matter how much money you've already
lost: if you quickly go through a major part of your bankroll,
consider playing a lower denomination if you want to avoid losing your
entire bankroll.
JBQ
···
On 8/29/05, Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:
It bears noting that the "Kelly" bankroll determination is set at a
Risk of Ruin of ~ 11%. It's a calculation that's interesting when
comparing two games. But I don't benchmark my play at such a high
risk factor.A relatively prudent starting bankroll in undertaking a game
represents no more than a 5% ROR (and ideally 1%-2%). These bankrolls
are much larger.
Nothing too exciting. The $1 (5 plays only) have 9/6
DDB on them.
A slot tech came around asking us lots of questions
about the machines and games, I pulled a semi Rob
singer and asked if the $1 5play deuces game could be
upgraded to NSUD (arizona is one of those only less
than 100% games states). It currently is Ugly ducks.
When I told him a competitor has NSUD (Casino Del
Sol), he seemed genuinely interested and said he'd
make the request and wrote down the pay table. If
anyone visits Ak-chin and sees the upgrade , let me
know!
Mark
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