mikeymic wrote:
The "hardcore" vpFREE members would say you shouldn't even be playing
less than full-pay. Giving up even a few percent over time adds up.
But long-term expectation is based on lots of hands. And, even then,
you might play 100,000 hands perfectly on a full-pay game and hit no
royals. Then, you might hit two in less than the next 1,000.
I'm reasonably "hardcore", but I'm very comfortable with someone
playing anything they want so long as they're fully aware of the
economics involved.
However, I cringe when the "long term" argument is raised as even a
modest rationalization as to why the cost of playing short-pay is an
iffy-prospect in the shorter term.
You hit the nail on the head in identifying the royal as the culprit
why a million+ hands is necessary in most vp games to have a strong
expectation that your actual results will adhere closely to expected
return.
However, when we talk "short-pay" we're typically talking about hands
that occur with a very reliable frequency -- hands like FH, F, and S.
When you're talking about a couple of thousand hands, it's quite
uncertain as to whether a full-pay player playing opposite a short-pay
one will come out ahead on these hands given comparable sessions.
But once you move the horizon out to a still moderate 20,000+ hands,
the situation starts turning to a near certainty that the full-pay
player is on top.
When it comes to a full-pay vs short-pay discussion, the "long-term"
player uncertainty concept is bunk.
- Harry