vpFREE2 Forums

It's Still Gambling

#1

As a long time observer and infrequent poster, I'm going to share
with all the truth I have learned after playing VP for over 10 years.

No matter how much we believe that playing perfect VP gives us an
edge, no matter how much we believe that we can make a consistent
profit,
no matter how much we are told by "professionals" that they do it and
it can be done, the bottom line is it's still gambling.

I have kept records of my play and I'm not ashamed to admit that I
have lost tens of thousands of dollars, playing .25 & $1 full pay and
as perfect as one can. No I'm not including my free rooms, food, etc.
Because frankly I could have paid for all of those "freebies" and
have a substantial amount more money in my bank than I do now.

I have plenty of money and my family as never suffered because of my
loss. My wish is that people take an honest look at their play, stop
believing the hype that you read by people trying to sell you their
products and claiming how much they've won.

Once I deprogrammed myself from believing all the forementioned and
realized that it can't be done, I starting taking a few dollars to
the casino and playing for enjoyment and relaxation. On any VP
machine where I was comfortable, I didn't care if it was full pay,
half pay. I didn't care if the casino was having a promotion, yes
I've chased those all over town. I didn't care if I didn't have my
slot card in the machine. I just went out and had fun. Guess what for
the first time in 10 years I'm making money. Luck? absolutely....
Gambling? absolutely.....but now I am a true advantage player.

#2

Gee....Have you tried golf? You can really enjoy golf and it's
relaxing. Stay out of the casino and breath the fresh air. Of course
you might get whacked with a golf ball hit by someone else. Come to
think of it, I guess golf is gambling too.

Cheers
.
.

As a long time observer and infrequent poster, I'm going to share
with all the truth I have learned after playing VP for over 10

years.

No matter how much we believe that playing perfect VP gives us an
edge, no matter how much we believe that we can make a consistent
profit,
no matter how much we are told by "professionals" that they do it

and

it can be done, the bottom line is it's still gambling.

I have kept records of my play and I'm not ashamed to admit that I
have lost tens of thousands of dollars, playing .25 & $1 full pay

and

as perfect as one can. No I'm not including my free rooms, food,

etc.

Because frankly I could have paid for all of those "freebies" and
have a substantial amount more money in my bank than I do now.

I have plenty of money and my family as never suffered because of

my

loss. My wish is that people take an honest look at their play,

stop

believing the hype that you read by people trying to sell you their
products and claiming how much they've won.

Once I deprogrammed myself from believing all the forementioned and
realized that it can't be done, I starting taking a few dollars to
the casino and playing for enjoyment and relaxation. On any VP
machine where I was comfortable, I didn't care if it was full pay,
half pay. I didn't care if the casino was having a promotion, yes
I've chased those all over town. I didn't care if I didn't have my
slot card in the machine. I just went out and had fun. Guess what

for

···

.-- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truthseekr99" <ydoc21@...> wrote:

the first time in 10 years I'm making money. Luck? absolutely....
Gambling? absolutely.....but now I am a true advantage player.

#3

.....and that is good...that you have found your "level of comfort".

That is something that all of us must do with VP and "gambling",
i.e., find our own personal "level of comfort".

But, you have to recognize (and accept) that we all have our own
personal levels of comfort, and that your level of comfort is not
the same as my level of comfort, nor Joe Blow's level of comfort.

For me, personally, I would not have fun, just sitting down at any
machine, without looking at the paytable, and deciding whether I am
comfortable with it. That is part of my "fun", i.e., searching out
reasoanable paytables that I am comfrotable with. It is not JUST
the gambling.

Good luck to you and to your playing. The best thing is for you to
have found your level of comfort and now to be able to play for
enjoyment.

.....bl

Once I deprogrammed myself from believing all the forementioned

and

realized that it can't be done, I starting taking a few dollars to
the casino and playing for enjoyment and relaxation. On any VP
machine where I was comfortable, I didn't care if it was full pay,
half pay. I didn't care if the casino was having a promotion, yes
I've chased those all over town. I didn't care if I didn't have my
slot card in the machine. I just went out and had fun. Guess what

for

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truthseekr99" <ydoc21@...> wrote:

the first time in 10 years I'm making money. Luck? absolutely....
Gambling? absolutely.....but now I am a true advantage player.

#4

Clearly, it CAN be down as demonstrated by the current VPFree poll of
2005 results. Which, by the way, follow quite closely with statistical
projections for a large group of players with a small edge.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "truthseekr99" <ydoc21@...> wrote:

Once I deprogrammed myself from believing all the forementioned and
realized that it can't be done,

#5

truthseekr99 wrote: I have kept records of my play and I'm not ashamed
to admit that I have lost tens of thousands of dollars, playing .25 & $1
full pay and
as perfect as one can.

This is an extremely unlikely result --- although I'm assuming that by
"full pay" he/she means "over 100%" --- and also assuming that we're
talking about several hundreds of hours of play over the years.

I have no idea who truthseekr99 is --- or whether we also know him/her
under a different pseudonym --- so my comments are not personal in the
slightest. The most common reasons for such a bad result are:

    1. Your play is less perfect than you indicate. Have you really
tested yourself at home using WinPoker or other product? Have you used
the advanced training mode and set the difference between the best play
and the second best play to .03 or less and STILL believe you play
essentially perfectly? Do you avoid alcohol, drugs, sleep deprivation,
playing immediately after a big meal, playing when emotionally
distraught and other things that can make you not at your best?.Players
tend to assume these things away, but they are very real and can bite
you.

    2. You haven't played enough. Assuming that "tens of thousands of
dollars" translates to $24,000, and playing for quarters and dollars
really means mostly dollars, we are talking being down more than 6 royal
cycles. If he has played 20 royal cycles (800,000 - 1,000,000 hands
depending on the game), the chance of being behind 6 or more royals is
less than 4%. (if you were playing $1 10/7 DB, which is worth 100.17%
before the slot club, 20 royal cycles will put you ahead, on average,
about $8,000. So to be down $24,000 you need to be behind EIGHT royal
cycles, which happens less than 2% of the time). Cash slot clubs and
promotions that bring you in cash make it even less likely.

    3. Your game selection isn't as advertised. Maybe you sometimes
play games under 100% --- for whatever reason.

    4. Your record keeping is inaccurate --- or it includes such
things as plane fare or other non-gambling expenses.

    5. Still a 2% chance of this kind of result means that it will
happen to one-in-fifty accurate players. While this is a small number,
it is NOT infinitessimal. It is possible that truthseekr99 as done
everything as he/she says and is still behind by this amount. It happens
and it's no fun when it does. But that does NOT justify the conclusion
that now he/she picks games willy-nilly, with or without a slot club,
and everything is cool. Even if you've had terrible results, playing a
100.2% game is BETTER than playing a 98.1% game. Receiving benefits from
a slot club is BETTER than not receiving them.

        It is one thing to do all the right things and to have had a bad
go of it. It is quite another to conclude that "everything these
so-called experts say is bunk because it didn't work in my case." That
conclusion will be a very expensive one for sure. Yes we are gambling,
but there are intelligent gambles and not-so-intelligent gambles.

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

<snip>

This is an extremely unlikely result --- although I'm assuming that
by "full pay" he/she means "over 100%" --- and also assuming that
we're talking about several hundreds of hours of play over the years.

<snip rest of post>

While I thought your reply was right on overall, I do want to comment
on this assumption and make a few additional observations.

I have seen a lot of posts lately on this list and on at least one
regional list discussing a losing record playing full pay games. When
I first started playing I played 8/5 bonus, 9/6 double double and 9/6
jacks, as they were all full pay and to me that meant those were games
I should play. That what someone had told me anyway. Basically I
knew enough to get me in trouble thinking I was doing the right thing.
Now I was probably better off than before where I knew literally
nothing, and I have since learned a lot, but there are many people
playing "full pay" less than positive games and are surprised at their
losing results. The AC forum is famous for this. JOB is usually the
best game around in AC for the casual quarter player. Even if one is
right on track hitting royals, one should be losing in theory. It
should be expected to lose playing JOB over the long term. Now,
sometimes with cashback, bounceback or other promotions, these games
do become positive. And the comps can have real value to the tourist.
But, the game itself is a losing game. I think that gets forgotten.

On the other hand, double bonus, loose dueces and other highly
volitile full pay games are very streaky. A long losing streak is not
that unusual. I believe Jean Scott has written about the bankroll
requirements for 10/7 double bonus and about how long the long term
can be in that game. The high variance nature means some will likely
be running way better than expected and some way worse over the short
term. Playing a shorter paying version will just make the losing
streaks even worse and the winning ones not as positive as they could
be.

The other observation people have commented on is not seeing winners
around them on newer machines. With TITO it is much less common to
notice winners. Hitting a royal playing quarters often produces no
fanfare at all. Not everyone jumps for joy everytime they hit a
jackpot. Some people can be quiet and keep on playing, not wanting to
draw attention to themselves. Perhaps the casinos should have kept
handpays on more jackpots to keep giving the impression of lots of
winners. I personally love TITO, but I wonder how prevelant the
notion is that these newer machines are colder and don't hit as much.
One more comment on the TITO newer machines. They tend to be faster
in general when it comes to the play of hands. So if one is playing a
negative FP game faster than before, they will lose more. Another
reason those machines can seem colder.

ev_junkie

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:

#7

With TITO it is much less common to

notice winners. Hitting a royal playing quarters often produces no
fanfare at all. Not everyone jumps for joy everytime they hit a
jackpot. Some people can be quiet and keep on playing, not wanting to
draw attention to themselves.

How true that is! A couple of years ago I was playing at the SunCoast DDB 9/5 .25c with TITO
when all of a sudden the Royal filled in after holding an ace for $1000.00. Within a few more
hands I hit aces with a kicker and and several more four of a kind of different denoms. I
cashed out about $1600.00. No one around me paid the slightest bit of attention to my play
as I did not manifest any outward emotion at my good fortune. The only way they could have
known was if they had had a stethoscope glued to my chest and wired to the loudspeaker for
all to hear my wildly happy thumping heart!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ev_junkie" <ev_junkie@...> wrote:

#8

Yes it is gambling but it is also finatial risktaking with a
mathamatical edge.

Since the realm of VP winners is a culture rather than a few
scatterd individuals the rule of sheer numbers virtually proves that
VP can be beat in a matter that superceeds mathamatical proof. this
provides independent confirmation of the fact.

since so many people do beat it and can learn to beat it.Makes it
a virtual impossibility that your contentions are on the surface are
truthfull.provided you play less than a $1 games (additional proof
comes in the form of independent reverse confirmation i.e. casinos
pulling "good" games from their inventories)

Although your play may represent a statistical anomoly I would
suggest you.

1.play only the best 100% + $.25 games you can find

2. play only at the casino that offers the most back in hard
currency or liquidable negotionalables (free play) or really good
stuff that others might want to purchase from you (like through e
Bay or garage sales ect.)

3. spend a bunch of time disecting the game you do play and always
input the correct information.

4. slow down the rate at which you play.

truthseekr99 wrote: I have kept records of my play and I'm not

ashamed

to admit that I have lost tens of thousands of dollars,

playing .25 & $1

···

full pay and
as perfect as one can.

#9

I have enjoyed 10 straight winning years at VP since 1996. I play mostly
quarters and dollars and multi'line 5 cent, ten cent, etc. So my book would
be called something like "$35,000 a year VP." This year, my 11th year,
I'm right at $15,000 so far. I use optimum strategy, have all the books,
software, etc., try to play as perfectly as possible and not overplay my
bankroll.

I choose not to run people down who use other systems. In my case
it's a "It ain't broke, so I am darn sure not going to try to fix it" thing. Good
Luck.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:

truthseekr99 wrote: I have kept records of my play and I'm not ashamed
to admit that I have lost tens of thousands of dollars, playing .25 & $1
full pay and
as perfect as one can.

This is an extremely unlikely result --- although I'm assuming that by
"full pay" he/she means "over 100%" --- and also assuming that we're
talking about several hundreds of hours of play over the years.

#10

    5. Still a 2% chance of this kind of result means
that it will happen to one-in-fifty accurate players.
While this is a small number ..

Most people I know are losers and for the reasons Bob
notes. However, how many members are on this board,
thousands? People seem more disposed to beleive in the
the 1 in 50 player on the right hand side of
distribution.

It seems some people want to pray to the gods of
mathmatics but only when it agrees with their point
of view. I find it ironic that while railing against
biases, people seem to expose their own. I'm not
advocating any silly playing schemes, just noting
that the title of this thread is accurate.