In Dancer's article and also in the help screen for the machine it tells
you that the multiplier occurs an average of one out of 15 hands. Believing
that is the same as believing that the cards are randomly dealt. It also
tells you that the average multiplier is 4.05. If that average was exactly
4 the game as a whole would return the same as the base game involved
(Note: you can play without the multiplier with no RF penalty.). To
calculate the payback for any game on that machine, use the payback figure
generated on Winpoker, Frugal VP, VP Tutor, VPEXACT etc. and multiply by
18.05 then divide by 18. They cannot have NSUD on games in my (Chicago)
area as that works out to 100.0053%(Must be under 100%).
···
[Original Message]
From: Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Date: 8/5/2004 1:20:13 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: It was not on the bonus roundI wrote:
> > Any time there's a non-skill feature in a vp game for which the
> > addition to ER can't be immediately discerned from the information
> > displayed, you can bet that the game has a very poor return.Sylvia replied:
> What about Super times pay? I read that the ER for the 9/6 JB is
> slightly higher than a "regular" 9/6 game. The "times pay" card
> seems to be random so I assume someone got the payback info from the
> manufacturer.That's an excellent question. Were it not for the availability of
additional information (the IGT promo lit or Dancer's article), this
would be a game I'd avoid.Before accounting for the bonus multiplier, the base return on these
machines is cut by 1/6 since you're wagering 6 coins but only
receiving a 5 coin paytable return on any hand (in absence of a
bonus). That makes for a lot of return (around 17%) that has to be
compensated by the bonus, and I would want tons of confidence I could
expect that.If the bonus frequency is variable (that is, it can be adjusted by the
casino), then I'd bet on the casino setting it to the lower values
available -- providing for a very subpar game.Fortunately both the manufacturer and Dancer's article indicate that
the bonus is fixed (expected about once in 15 hands). Further, the
distribution of bonuses (they run 2x to 10x) are fixed. The frequency
and distribution is the same for all games as well. The addition to
expected return of the bonus in most cases is just under .3% (over and
above the 17% necessary to compensate for the payout cut).Armed with this info, it's possible to confidently approach the game
knowing what you're getting into.However, in the case of Double Trouble, and many other vp games with
unusual bonuses (Goldmine BP comes to mind as another example), bonus
frequency is a variable that can be set by the casino. As a player
you have no idea what you're looking at unless you, or someone else,
puts the machine through a large number of trials - recording bonus
frequency and amount.
For these games, unless I have advance information otherwise, I'm
satisfied that the casino sets the bonus fequency very low. (More
precisely, the casino actually selects ER, which drives the displayed
paytable and an associated bonus frequency.)- Harry
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