vpFREE2 Forums

Isn't it just one long game?

#1

In a message dated 7/19/2003 4:27:20 PM Central Daylight Time,
ljboxer@earthlink.net writes:

The argument against the timeline being with the machine is that it would
supposedly imply that something is "due." That's not true, since most
sessions are "short term" where variance plays a huge role in outcome.
Those players who insist that they see a more or less expected distribution
after many short term sessions are probably seeing the results of variance
more than anything else, and there are likely more players who are not
seeing anything like an expected distribution under the same circumstances,
also due to variance.

You interpret my position correctly, and I agree that a player will not
correctly perceive any ER over the short term. This is why serious players keep
detailed records to look back on over time. I do not understand how any
misperception would affect the reality, however. I also do not understand how a
perception of whether it is a machine or player being proactive would affect
outcome, or ER, and I suspect this is one of those questions where positions are
cast in concrete:-)
Chandler

"...there is always a well-known solution to every human problem--neat,
plausible, and wrong." H. L. Mencken

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

cmayhem@aol.com wrote:

> The argument against the timeline being with the machine is that it would
> supposedly imply that something is "due." That's not true, since most
> sessions are "short term" where variance plays a huge role in outcome.
> Those players who insist that they see a more or less expected distribution
> after many short term sessions are probably seeing the results of variance
> more than anything else
>

I completely agree with this. This is why variance in the short term is so important, and with experience and a plan, it can be manipulated to the players advantage, generally but not always, but enough that it can and does make a difference. This is true of full and short pay machines. Since all sessions are short term, be it 5 minutes or 5 hours, variance is really the primary controlling factor in any given session. Being proactive can make a big difference. A lot of people already are proactive in their own way and don't realize it. They will explain it with human emotions by saying the machine wasn't giving anything back, so they moved to find a better machine or will try other "lucky" things that have helped them in the past. I do not subscribe to this other than I understand what they are doing is a small part of being proactive.

Being completely proactive requires a plan and the will power to stick with it. Will you be a winner every time by being proactive? Of course not, but for my last 14 LV trips, which I have detailed records on, I have come home a substantial winner 11 of those 14 times and my loses for the other 3 trips were minimal. My definition of "substantial winner" is $3,000 or more since it costs me $2,100 for round trip airfare to LV. My definition of "minimal" loses is $5,000 or less.

I agree that a player will not
correctly perceive any ER over the short term. This is why serious players keep
detailed records to look back on over time. I do not understand how any
misperception would affect the reality, however. I also do not understand how a
perception of whether it is a machine or player being proactive would affect
outcome, or ER, and I suspect this is one of those questions where positions are
cast in concrete:-)

I only agree with two things here. Yes, serious players do keep detailed records to look back over time, and yes, it is one of those questions where positions are cast in concrete. :slight_smile:

Bob

···

cmayhem@aol.com wrote:

#3

Hmmmmm.......I can't understand why you call variance "important".
Variance is just a mathematically derived number to describe one aspect
of a gambling situation. It's not "important", it just exists as a concept.

I don't particularily like a game with high variance. Too much variance
to the downside is painful. Too much upside variance can cloud one's
judgement (hopefully temporarily :-).

As for "experience and a plan" and manipulating the variance to the
players advantage...........uh oh, this sounds suspiciously like RS's
"strategy". Yes, you can change the variance of a game by straying
from the strategy that yields the highest return. And, such strategy
changes can alter the distribution of winning and losing
sessions. If this is what you mean by "players advantage" then I can
agree. Some players might find it advantageous to have a higher
number of winning sessions at the expense of larger losing ones.
But if you meant pretty much anything else, then I must
disagree. "Manipulating" the variance will cost the player money
in the long run and I just can't see this as being to his "advantage".

Of course, the above assumes that the value of a gambling
opportunity is measured only in terms of cold, hard cash.
Some individuals may place a different "value" on having
a winning session. Then, indeed their "optimal" strategy
is the one that produces the greatest value for them.

G'luck
Gamb00lin F00l(s)

···

cmayhem@aol.com wrote:

> The argument against the timeline being with the machine is that it
> would supposedly imply that something is "due." That's not true,
> since most sessions are "short term" where variance plays a huge
> role in outcome. Those players who insist that they see a more
> or less expected distribution after many short term sessions are
> probably seeing the results of variance more than anything else

Bob Sommer - Top of the World Coins" <NL7HT@barrow.com> wrote:

I completely agree with this. This is why variance in the short term is
so important, and with experience and a plan, it can be manipulated to
the players advantage, generally but not always, but enough that it can
and does make a difference.

#4

VP nom de plume wrote:

Hmmmmm.......I can't understand why you call variance "important".
Variance is just a mathematically derived number to describe one aspect
of a gambling situation. It's not "important", it just exists as a concept.

As for "experience and a plan" and manipulating the variance to the
players advantage...........uh oh, this sounds suspiciously like RS's
"strategy". Yes, you can change the variance of a game by straying
from the strategy that yields the highest return. And, such strategy
changes can alter the distribution of winning and losing
sessions.

I guess if you don't agree with someone, you make an innuendo linking him with a semi-controversial person so most people will dismiss his ideas? I have never met RS and have no idea what he thinks of my writings. I also have not seen, or remember seeing, anything about variance from him.

I have never strayed from perfect play while playing a machine. I have been very successful in manipulating variance to a certain degree that gives me a much better edge. Over the years I have developed a strategy that works for me using variance and I know others that it works for also. I also realize that some people don't like to hear of such success and will immediately condemn it, in a very loud voice, as faulty because they don't want anyone else to believe it either.

"Manipulating" the variance will cost the player money
in the long run and I just can't see this as being to his "advantage".

Totally disagree.

Of course, the above assumes that the value of a gambling
opportunity is measured only in terms of cold, hard cash.
Some individuals may place a different "value" on having
a winning session. Then, indeed their "optimal" strategy
is the one that produces the greatest value for them.

As I have said before, I have NEVER counted comps in any of my wins or loses. They mean almost nothing to me and I never use them except what a host may give me "after the fact".

Bob

···
#5

VP nom de plume wrote:

> Hmmmmm.......I can't understand why you call variance "important".
> Variance is just a mathematically derived number to describe one aspect
> of a gambling situation. It's not "important", it just exists as a
> concept.
>
> As for "experience and a plan" and manipulating the variance to the
> players advantage...........uh oh, this sounds suspiciously like RS's
> "strategy". Yes, you can change the variance of a game by straying
> from the strategy that yields the highest return. And, such strategy
> changes can alter the distribution of winning and losing
> sessions.

I guess if you don't agree with someone, you make an innuendo linking
him with a semi-controversial person so most people will dismiss his
ideas? I have never met RS and have no idea what he thinks of my
writings. I also have not seen, or remember seeing, anything about
variance from him.

I don't think he has used the term variance in his writing. But, some
of the strategy changes he has stated the he has used, do indeed alter
the variance. These changes probably alter the win/loss ratio of sessions.

I didn't link you with RS. It's just that your statements about
manipulating
variance seem similar to his beliefs, even though you use different
terminology.

I have never strayed from perfect play while playing a machine. I have
been very successful in manipulating variance to a certain degree that
gives me a much better edge. Over the years I have developed a strategy
that works for me using variance and I know others that it works for
also. I also realize that some people don't like to hear of such
success and will immediately condemn it, in a very loud voice, as faulty
because they don't want anyone else to believe it either.

> "Manipulating" the variance will cost the player money
> in the long run and I just can't see this as being to his "advantage".

Totally disagree.

I'm glad to hear that you don't stray from perfect strategy.

Please give us an example of how you "manipulate" variance?

I suspect that you really don't mean the mathematical definition of
variance in your statements.

The commonly accepted definition of "edge" is expected return - 1
expressed in %. For example a 5% edge means expected return is 1.05.
Do you claim that you increase your edge by "manipulating" variance?
Please, give us a concrete example.

> Of course, the above assumes that the value of a gambling
> opportunity is measured only in terms of cold, hard cash.
> Some individuals may place a different "value" on having
> a winning session. Then, indeed their "optimal" strategy
> is the one that produces the greatest value for them.

As I have said before, I have NEVER counted comps in any of my wins or
loses. They mean almost nothing to me and I never use them except what
a host may give me "after the fact".

I was actually referring to intangible values such as feeling good after
hitting
a sizeable jackpot, not the (at least somewhat tangible) value of comps.

#6

VP nom de plume wrote:

Please give us an example of how you "manipulate" variance?

I already did in a previous post.

Bob

#7

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Sommer - Top of the World Coins
<NL7HT@b...> wrote:

VP nom de plume wrote:

> Please give us an example of how you "manipulate" variance?

I already did in a previous post.

Bob

What message number was it, or tell us again.

#8

> VP nom de plume wrote:
>
> > Please give us an example of how you "manipulate" variance?

Bob Sommer wrote:

> I already did in a previous post.
>
> Bob

deuceswild1000 wrote:

What message number was it, or tell us again.

Here is what I copied from one of his previous posts (18136)

Bob Sommer wrote:

Have you ever hit a jackpot, made a reasonable profit, then put it all
back in the machine and walked away a loser for that session? If you
answer no to that question, you are someone who either lies or someone
what doesn't gamble at all. We have all done it at one time or another,
some more than others, and if you observe other gamblers, you see it
done all the time.

The trick is knowing when to quit. You will not always be right, but it
is a lot better than walking away a loser almost every time. This all
comes with experience and the will power to leave the machine, which a
lot of people don't have.

For example: Lets say I am playing $1 TP DB. I have $800 invested in
it. I have 385 credits on the machine when I am dealt 4-aces. After I
am paid and get my W2G, I will play off the 85 credits to see if
something else might come up, but if it doesn't, I will quit and cash
out my $300 for a tidy profit of $1,900. I will take a long break,
change machines, get something to eat, or quit for the day depending on
my mood and schedule. No way is that particular machine going to get
any more money from me that day. The next person to sit down at that
machine might very well hit a royal within a few hands, and then again
they might pump in hundreds of dollars without hitting anything. I like
to gamble, but when I win, I want it in my wallet. And if you believe
that it is the casino's money you are playing with at that point, you
have a bigger problem than I can help you with here.

Now I know that the math purists and "experts" out there will pooh pooh
this and say they know everything there is to ever know about playing VP
and say that it does not matter what machine I play and that it is only
the long term that matters but I have two problems with this. First,
all sessions are short term. This is reality. Second, I believe it is
the long term of the machine and not that of the player. This has been
discussed on this forum before, with those with the loudest voice
believing they won the argument.

It all comes down to the experience of a good gambler, knowing and using
expert play, luck, and the will power to quit when not too far behind or
after showing a profit. I have been playing VP since 1980 and today I
do very well, but this was not always true years ago when I just knew
the machine was going to hit just one more four of a kind.

Every player must find their own comfort level when gambling. Don't use
someone else's, it just won't work. I have found mine and am very happy
with it.

#9

None of this has to do with manipulating variance. Most can play well
after a big win. That's the easy part.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VP nom de plume" <gamb00ler.vp1@c...>
wrote:

> > VP nom de plume wrote:
> >
> > > Please give us an example of how you "manipulate" variance?

Bob Sommer wrote:

> > I already did in a previous post.
> >
> > Bob

deuceswild1000 wrote:

> What message number was it, or tell us again.

Here is what I copied from one of his previous posts (18136)

Bob Sommer wrote:

Have you ever hit a jackpot, made a reasonable profit, then put it

all

back in the machine and walked away a loser for that session? If

you

answer no to that question, you are someone who either lies or

someone

what doesn't gamble at all. We have all done it at one time or

another,

some more than others, and if you observe other gamblers, you see

it

done all the time.

The trick is knowing when to quit. You will not always be right,

but it

is a lot better than walking away a loser almost every time. This

all

comes with experience and the will power to leave the machine,

which a

lot of people don't have.

For example: Lets say I am playing $1 TP DB. I have $800 invested

in

it. I have 385 credits on the machine when I am dealt 4-aces. After

I

am paid and get my W2G, I will play off the 85 credits to see if
something else might come up, but if it doesn't, I will quit and

cash

out my $300 for a tidy profit of $1,900. I will take a long break,
change machines, get something to eat, or quit for the day

depending on

my mood and schedule. No way is that particular machine going to

get

any more money from me that day. The next person to sit down at

that

machine might very well hit a royal within a few hands, and then

again

they might pump in hundreds of dollars without hitting anything. I

like

to gamble, but when I win, I want it in my wallet. And if you

believe

that it is the casino's money you are playing with at that point,

you

have a bigger problem than I can help you with here.

Now I know that the math purists and "experts" out there will pooh

pooh

this and say they know everything there is to ever know about

playing VP

and say that it does not matter what machine I play and that it is

only

the long term that matters but I have two problems with this.

First,

all sessions are short term. This is reality. Second, I believe it

is

the long term of the machine and not that of the player. This has

been

discussed on this forum before, with those with the loudest voice
believing they won the argument.

It all comes down to the experience of a good gambler, knowing and

using

expert play, luck, and the will power to quit when not too far

behind or

after showing a profit. I have been playing VP since 1980 and today

I

do very well, but this was not always true years ago when I just

knew

the machine was going to hit just one more four of a kind.

Every player must find their own comfort level when gambling. Don't

use

someone else's, it just won't work. I have found mine and am very

happy

···

with it.