research.
investing.
···
with it.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yea , thats how you do it to make $, of course you would like to have
5 stocks like that, but 1 better than none
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As far as that goes, I find much of the concept of "value investing"
somewhat laughable for the individual investor.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
HUH???
It's rare that an
individual is going to have insight into a stock, no matter how much
research, that the greater market doesn't have
+++++++++++++++++++++
No No, the person at their kitchen table or computer beats the heck
out of money managers year after year, ask Warren Buffet or any of
the brokage houses analysts, there biggest gripe is there too far
away the action to see things as early the "little guy"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(unless they possess
inside information not available to the public - hence, not
obtainable
through research).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What we possess is seeing IGT exploding sales 18 months before any
analyst even cover them, that Target parking lot was getting fuller
while Wal Mart was getting empty, that Monster energy drink was
selling like mad , Station casinos expanding rapidly , Steve Wynn's
brillance, WYNN stock went from $11 to $44 before ONE money manger or
analyst even cover it, the "greater market" push it to over $70.
All of the above was info "obtainable through research" via yahoo
finace , companies web sites ,SEC filings,financial news, or just
opening your eyes to what going on around you, all months before
the "greater market" had a clue.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Frankly, I'm a strong adherent to the efficient
market hypothesis.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Me too Harry, BUT like the theo return on VP, can take a LONG time to
get there and there is money to be made in the mean time
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
More often than not, if a stock is "undervalued", stock analysts and
institutional investors are going to beat the individual to the
punch
(largely based upon info directly disclosed to them in analyst
meetings) and the individual will actually pay too much for the
stock,
setting themselves up for underperformance relative to the market.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The individual investor CONSTANTLY beats the market per many studies
& NOT one has shown different.
Harry havent you notice that analyst on a regular basis make there
recommdations AFTER the stock gone up???
CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Investor Busniess Daily are always
pointing that fact out & heavily critical about that practice.
You did make a good point about analysts without realising it thou,
individaul investors should not wait for an analyst opinion period.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The mask behind which "value investing" lies is that high beta
(variance) stocks are typically the focus, some of which
statistically
will end up being high fliers.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Harry you need to explain that beta measures varaince of a stocks
PRICE to the market price ie: the S&P 500, a stock that matches the
gain or loss of the market has a beta of 1, so a stock that gains or
loses faster than market will have higher varaince, so a high
variance can be a GOOD or a BAD thing.
beta has VERY little to do with vaule investing as it is a backwards
looking indicator, not forward. I dont know any investors that do.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Frankly, many individual will take
great pride in their pick when they simply happen to benefit from
statistical luck, and set themselves up for undue risk by
overweighting their portfolio in future picks.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Harry i dont understand, what is your point? overweighting WHAT in
your portfolio?? Do you pick stocks? Do you invest in index funds as
most efficient market belivers do??
If so fine,my retiremnt fund is because I dont have a choice, better
than bonds & you will beat 95% of the mutual fund managers, but not
most of "small investors" , per the Wall Street Journal & others.
I have "happen to benefit from statistical luck" for 35 years now,
beating the 500 index on a regular basis, Investing in Steve Wynn
wether his company was called Golden Nugget or Mirage or Wynn would
have done it & thats just ONE stock ,throw in IGT ,Station , Harrahs,
the old Park Place ,shufflemaster, Pinnaclle entertainment, MGM-
Mirage-Mandalay Bay , Boyd and it possiblle to have made a lot of
money just in gaming.
I belive ANYONE can be a succesfull investor, if i can ANYBODY
can,the hardest part is getting started, thanks to the internet
reaserch is easier than ever
Has gambling lovers, we all have a HUGE advantage as we can see whats
happening long before wall street & casinos still is one the fastest
growing part of the economy as gambling is us baby boomers favorite
leisure activity.
Harry i will give you one to look at, alteria the old phillip morris
as of last Mon sells at 11 times earnings, growing profits at 16.5
percent a year, dividen is 4.5%,have increase the dividen 25 straight
quarters, 70% of profit returned as dividen & has announced they are
lookin at selling their stake in Kraft Foods which been a drag on
earnings.
Why is it selling at 11 times earnings when the market is selling at
15 to 16, litagation is a scare, but they have been succesfull in
getting court decisions reduced & they alredy written off billions to
pay litagation cost off the books , already counted it against
earnings, some people dont care for their bizness & i dont either but
money is money ,
You can get a co. thats growing earnings thanks to the world demand,
not the USA, take advantage of the weak $ and get paid 4.5% percent a
year to wait for the price to move up.
Or not, YOMV
M J
