In FPDW what would be expected likely longest streak of hands of poker with no 4 deuces and and no royal?
I realize *anything* could happen. One could hit 1 million royal flushes in a million hands, but rather than that, the most probable losing streak in that number of hands you would likely run into. Not the most improbable streak.
Are you saying you've done 1,000,000 hands w/o a royal or quad dueces?
I remember a long time Skip Group member (from California) who had never gotten a Royal but he was doing O.K. because the VP was positive w/o a Royal (those were the days). Just ballparking:
~25 Royal cycles in a million hands.
~100 quad duece cycles in a million hands.
So, one "should" get either a Royal or dueces every ~8,000 hands
(~125 cycles in a million hands).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "theprostitutionstate" <theprostitutionstate@...> wrote:
In FPDW what would be expected likely longest streak of hands of poker with no 4 deuces and and no royal?
I realize *anything* could happen. One could hit 1 million royal flushes in a million hands, but rather than that, the most probable losing streak in that number of hands you would likely run into. Not the most improbable streak.
Oh no. I believe I would quit playing. Especially without 4 deuces.
I was just curious as a "probable" event, in the course of a million hands what is the longest losing streak of no 4 deuces or royal one would likely run in to.
"Probable" being the key word here.
I don't know, maybe I'm not asking a sensible question.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@...> wrote:
Are you saying you've done 1,000,000 hands w/o a royal or quad dueces?
Or maybe I should ask this instead, is there a way to calculate the occurence of "streaks"?, not just the occurance of say, the number of RF per million in a particular game?
Best to look at this is terms a cycle. A cycle is how long it takes on average to hit a specific hand. A royal cycle for JOB is about 40,000 hands. A four deuce cycle is about 4900 hands in deuces wild.
Now we can ask "What are the chances of going 0 for 1 or 0 for 2 cylces" the odds will be the same for any type of hand.
For example if the odds of going 0 for 3 cycles is 1 in 20, that would correspond to 3x40,000 = 120,000 hands for a royal, and 3x4900=14,700 hands for hitting four deuces.
Chances of hitting zero hits for
1 cycle : 1 in 2.7
2 cycles : 1 in 7.4
3 cycles : 1 in 20
4 cycles : 1 in 55
5 cycles : 1 in 148 (this would be 200,000 hands for a royal or 24,500 hands for four deuces)
6 cycles : 1 in 403
7 cycles : 1 in 1096
8 cycles : 1 in 2981
9 cycles : 1 in 8103
10 cycles : 1 in 22026
11 cycles : 1 in 59874
12 cycles : 1 in 162755
13 cycles : 1 in 442413
14 cycles : 1 in 1202604
15 cycles : 1 in 3269017
I once went 0-9 cycles trying to hit a four of a kind. A 1 in 8103 shot.
One million hands is 25 royal cycles. Chances of going this many hands with no royal are 1 in 72 billion. If you played 700 hands an hour, 24 hours a day, it would take 11,741 years just to play 72 billion hands.
TomSki
Thanks, excellent!
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "ThomasS" <tomskilv@...> wrote:
Best to look at this is terms a cycle. A cycle is how long it takes on average to hit a specific hand. A royal cycle for JOB is about 40,000 hands. A four deuce cycle is about 4900 hands in deuces wild.
Now we can ask "What are the chances of going 0 for 1 or 0 for 2 cylces" the odds will be the same for any type of hand.
For example if the odds of going 0 for 3 cycles is 1 in 20, that would correspond to 3x40,000 = 120,000 hands for a royal, and 3x4900=14,700 hands for hitting four deuces.
Chances of hitting zero hits for
1 cycle : 1 in 2.7
2 cycles : 1 in 7.4
3 cycles : 1 in 20
4 cycles : 1 in 55
5 cycles : 1 in 148 (this would be 200,000 hands for a royal or 24,500 hands for four deuces)
6 cycles : 1 in 403
7 cycles : 1 in 1096
8 cycles : 1 in 2981
9 cycles : 1 in 8103
10 cycles : 1 in 22026
11 cycles : 1 in 59874
12 cycles : 1 in 162755
13 cycles : 1 in 442413
14 cycles : 1 in 1202604
15 cycles : 1 in 3269017I once went 0-9 cycles trying to hit a four of a kind. A 1 in 8103 shot.
One million hands is 25 royal cycles. Chances of going this many hands with no royal are 1 in 72 billion. If you played 700 hands an hour, 24 hours a day, it would take 11,741 years just to play 72 billion hands.
TomSki
Using the wizard's numbers [(440202756+4060462824)/19933230517200] the 50% point (halflife) is at 3070 hands. Meaning half the time you will get a royal or deuces before 3070 hands and half the time you will get them after 3070 hands. The 95% point is at 13,267 hands.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "theprostitutionstate" <theprostitutionstate@...> wrote:
In FPDW what would be expected likely longest streak of hands of poker with no 4 deuces and and no royal?
I realize *anything* could happen. One could hit 1 million royal flushes in a million hands, but rather than that, the most probable losing streak in that number of hands you would likely run into. Not the most improbable streak.
I feel the pain:
I still have not gotten a Royal Flush on a regular VP machine, ever.
Deuces Wild 4 2's probably around 10 times.
I too am a bit angry about the RF drought, NEVER?
..and I see one player get 3 in same hour?
My never is probably roughly 250k hands, I don't play a ton, I can't afford it right now, hardly play at all.
RF is 41,000 to 1 long shot every time, right?
So having played 250,000 hands or so, I have bucked the odds in favor of the casinos.
I'm playing Bonus Poker Deluxe usually when I play and settling on the better 4 of a kind payouts which I actually get, sometimes.
-Brian
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@...> wrote:
Are you saying you've done 1,000,000 hands w/o a royal or quad dueces?
I remember a long time Skip Group member (from California) who had never gotten a Royal but he was doing O.K. because the VP was positive w/o a Royal (those were the days). Just ballparking:
~25 Royal cycles in a million hands.
~100 quad duece cycles in a million hands.
So, one "should" get either a Royal or dueces every ~8,000 hands
(~125 cycles in a million hands).--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "theprostitutionstate" <theprostitutionstate@> wrote:
>
> In FPDW what would be expected likely longest streak of hands of poker with no 4 deuces and and no royal?
>
> I realize *anything* could happen. One could hit 1 million royal flushes in a million hands, but rather than that, the most probable losing streak in that number of hands you would likely run into. Not the most improbable streak.
>
On Bonus Poker Deluxe, it's about 1 in 42,000 assuming perfect strategy.
Note those three words "assuming perfect strategy". If you don't play
perfect strategy you can swing the odds a good amount either way. In
the case of Bdlx, the main part of this to pay attention to is that if
you have a choice between high pair and three to a royal, keep the
high pair. If it's low pair versus three to a royal, keep the three to
a royal. If you've been keeping the low pair when a situation like
that comes up, you're making it harder for yourself to hit that juicy
royal payout. Also, you always always keep four to a royal unless you
got a king high straight flush, in which case you keep the straight
flush.
On Jun 10, 2010, at 8:45 PM, brianlv66 wrote:
RF is 41,000 to 1 long shot every time, right?
So having played 250,000 hands or so, I have bucked the odds in
favor of the casinos.I'm playing Bonus Poker Deluxe usually when I play and settling on
the better 4 of a kind payouts which I actually get, sometimes.-Brian
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