I'm growing weary of losing

[whitejeeps]

I've been playing a lot of DDB lately. Mostly 10/6 at 10 play quarter and some 3 play quarter 9/6 DDB. Usually about 5 hour sessions. I also sprinkle some crummy machine play; but very little. Here's this year win loss per session. Negative sessions; 1040,875,300,1120,399,1857,1722,802,1381, 1420, 801,368,860,25,1040,720,115,1303,533,742,855,667,330, a loss total of $19,275 this year. Win 2495,866,1683, 1492,352,609, to total 7497. Total loss of $11,778.00 till now this year.

My wife win loss, mostly 9/6 single play DDB at fifty cents…Loss,1305,1304,1410,723,610,603,608,270,601,405,1032,582,620,865, 200,305,50,288,900,301,308,442,268,33. A total loss of $14,033. Win: 222,927,210,30,50,305,1276, Win total $3020.00. Total loss for her $11,013.

Between the two of us, loss of $22,791. CB total between 2 is $4220.00 leaving a loss of $18,571. Total sessions of 34 per player. A very rough estimate of 340 hours seems to figure out to $54 an hour loss rate for 340 hours.

I know, the gang here will say this is normal loss. One must expect loss like these. I've been playing for years and this loss rate is new to me. Especially @ quarter play. In my opinion, this is a huge unlucky streak. Unprecidented loss, including the old days of $5 Double Joker 3 coin in AC, $1 Bonus progressives in Vegas and the ever favorite extinct $1 FPDW.

Just looking for some input?

Have a good holiday weekend. Jeep.

[jim_mason7]

Jeep-

How much does a dealt royal at 10 play pay?
$10K? It is not as unlikely as you think.
All it takes is one big hand to turn things around.
That is how this game works. We try to lose as little as
possible until that royal fills in. With the appropriate bankroll
the only risk is the amount of time you spend playing.
The worst enemy is the mental one. Maybe take a break
for a while(day,week,month?). Good Luck.

Jim Mason

[Don_the_Dentist1]

The 9/6 DDB returns 98.98%, while the 10/6 DDB is at 100.06% (with perfect play). While your results are on the wrong side of the bell curve, they are probably within one or two sigmas. A better choice of games played may improve your results.

Don the Dentist

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "whitejeeps" <whitejeeps@...> wrote:

I've been playing a lot of DDB lately. Mostly 10/6 at 10 play quarter and some 3 play quarter 9/6 DDB. Usually about 5 hour sessions. I also sprinkle some crummy machine play; but very little.

[slowpoke2222]

Jeep,

My very rough calculation is that you've played about $1 million coin in between you and your wife. 10/6 DDB is just over 100% EV and 9/6 DDB is just under 99%, assuming perfect play. If your coin in was split equally between the two games, you would have an "expected loss" of about half a per cent or $5,000 (before cash back) on $1 million coin in.

You are right that a $22K loss is a very unlucky result but these games are very volatile as I'm sure you know.

Playing ten-play or three-play adds to the volatility since your overall results depend so much on your dealt hands. My guess is that you have not received "your share" of dealt Aces, 2s, 3s and 4s.

As others have said, a few big hands will turn things around for you. OTOH, a normal streak over the next $1 million will result in a further loss of roughly $5,000, before cash back.

Hope this helps.

Slowpoke

[fivespot]

I've been playing a lot of DDB lately. Mostly 10/6 at 10 play quarter and some 3 play quarter 9/6 DDB. Usually about 5 hour sessions. I also sprinkle some crummy machine play; but very little. Total loss of $11,778.00 till now this year.

back of the envelope calculation:
variance for ddb is about 40.
per-hand variance for 10-play is about double that of 1-play, so 80.
stddev/hand is the square root of that, or about 9 bets.
let's say 640 rounds/hr. that's 6400 hands. square root is 80.
stddev/hr is 9*80 bets, so 720 bets.
you've played about 170 hours. square root is about 13.
stddev for the year's play is 13*720, so 9360 bets.
each bet is $1.25, so stddev for the year is 9360*$1.25, or $11700.

in other words, even under very generous assumptions, you're about one
standard deviation below expectation - almost one-sixth of the time
you'd be expected to run this bad. given that you were sometimes
playing short-pay ddb and other bad games, and that you might not play
perfectly, it was probably an even stronger likelihood than that.

the combined likelihood of both you and your wife having downstreaks
like that is lower, of course, but nowhere near the realm of freakish.

(i'm not even going to take a stab at her results. the fact that
you're the one asking the questions, and that she's playing a smaller
game at short pay, suggests that imperfect play may be a larger factor
for her - but i have no way of even guessing how much so.)

I've been playing for years and this loss rate is new to me. Especially @ quarter play. In my opinion, this is a huge unlucky streak.

you can toss the dice quite a few times before rolling a seven.
doesn't make the seven all that unlikely.

all it takes is a couple of big hands to get you back to even... of
course, all it takes is another few months of not getting those big
hands, and you're stuck another twenty grand.

why are you playing so much? are you still having fun? if so, would
you have as much fun at lower stakes? these are important questions to
ask. DDB at $12.50/pull is not a small game.

if the downside potential of this game stresses you out, maybe you
should step down in stakes. or stop.

if you want to keep playing, do it because the combination of
enjoyment and expectation and variance is appealing to you, not to try
to get "your money" back. chasing leads nowhere good - no matter how
bad a losing streak is, it can always get worse.

i wish you wisdom in choosing future plays, and luck in whichever play
you choose.

cheers,

five

···

On Fri, May 22, 2009 at 1:04 PM, whitejeeps <whitejeeps@yahoo.com> wrote:

[whitejeeps]

Your on the money. Number of delt As without a kicker = 0 since the first of the year. I believe there may have been one 4 low without kicker but not drawing enough to get signer. Got an ok amount of 4kds 250. Never got a dealt sf though. I don't even look for the dealt royal as I don't consider that much of the return I need, however that would be icing on the cake needed to return back to 1/2 health. I have had 4 lifetime dealt roys and I believe I might be short on those by a couple. Teh are hard to get. The dealt As and lows make a big impact, in my opinion. Of course, as we all know, there is no such thing as "due to hit". On level of play; I believe quarter 10 play isn't much worse than two dolar single play in win loss swings. One crazy thing, I have spent a 4-5 hr sessions 10 ply and stopped by bar and played some crummy single play game while getting a "free drink and peanuts" and caught the dealt high and low 4kd. I'm getting my share; but in the wrong places. Of course any hit is better than no hit.

The normal loss streak you mention (5000) is acceptable. In fact, playing 5 hr sessions on automatic play with Dancer fits in short long run; if that makes sense. Meaning a bunch of short runs turns into a looger run.

Bt the way, last year was positive year. In my case I have run positive for quite a few years. This play is just from one gambling joint. I have 3 trips to AC this year with ho hum results. Slightly negative.

To sum up, Sometime payback can be a bitch!! Worse, it's might not be over yet.

Cheers...Jeep

It's just .com, "Slowpoke" <decca@...> wrote:

···

Jeep

You are right that a $22K loss is a very unlucky result but these games are very volatile as I'm sure you know.

Playing ten-play or three-play adds to the volatility since your overall results depend so much on your dealt hands. My guess is that you have not received "your share" of dealt Aces, 2s, 3s and 4s.

As others have said, a few big hands will turn things around for you. OTOH, a normal streak over the next $1 million will result in a further loss of roughly $5,000, before cash back.

Hope this helps.

Slowpoke

[mikeymic]

I wanted to take some time to think about your post so that I might offer some productive advice. Hopefully my response will help.

First, the notion that a "dealt royal isn't all that rare" not only isn't realistic but doesn't do anything for you if it never happens to YOU. So, I would instead like for you to consider what you CAN do rather than waste energy fantasizing about what COULD happen to you but probably will not.

My initial thought is that you have become comfortable with losing. I certainly don't mean that you enjoy the financial "hit" you are taking. Rather, the casino (or casinos) that you visit have hooked you on whatever cashback or comps they offer. So, you continue to be comfortable there and enjoy those perks in spite of the fact you aren't winning.

I can tell you that I have saved myself in video poker by being strong enough to walk away from thousands of dollars in comps at casinos where I SHOULD have won but experienced repetitive bad luck. And I was playing 9/6 Jacks and NSUD which I consider to be a bit more "dependable" than even the 10/6 version of DDB. Yet I lost consistently at places I should have won and absolutely had to walk.

The fact that two of you are both not doing well suggests that where you are playing just isn't your place. As another member posted, how will you feel if you drop another $5K into the bottomless pit with no better result? Your confidence will drop and so can your skill. Then, panic can set in and you are doomed. The casino is betting on it.

I don't want to see that happen. So, don't let where you are playing "win". You and your wife have both tried enough with all those sessions and are now done. Take your business elsewhere and don't look back.

Walk away.

Since I have been in your position I refer to anything in the past as a "sunk cost", to use an accounting term. It is money that is gone and irrelevant.

So, you are now starting today fresh from Day One.

I suggest that you continue playing, since the two of you enjoy it. Always make good game and slot club choices and play as skillfully as you can. But vow to explore and now take your play elsewhere. You'd be surprised how quickly you'll wish you have made the move sooner.

Better luck,

Mikey

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "whitejeeps" <whitejeeps@...> wrote:

I've been playing a lot of DDB lately. Mostly 10/6 at 10 play quarter and some 3 play quarter 9/6 DDB. Usually about 5 hour sessions. I also sprinkle some crummy machine play; but very little. Here's this year win loss per session. Negative sessions; 1040,875,300,1120,399,1857,1722,802,1381, 1420, 801,368,860,25,1040,720,115,1303,533,742,855,667,330, a loss total of $19,275 this year. Win 2495,866,1683, 1492,352,609, to total 7497. Total loss of $11,778.00 till now this year.

My wife win loss, mostly 9/6 single play DDB at fifty cents…Loss,1305,1304,1410,723,610,603,608,270,601,405,1032,582,620,865, 200,305,50,288,900,301,308,442,268,33. A total loss of $14,033. Win: 222,927,210,30,50,305,1276, Win total $3020.00. Total loss for her $11,013.

Between the two of us, loss of $22,791. CB total between 2 is $4220.00 leaving a loss of $18,571. Total sessions of 34 per player. A very rough estimate of 340 hours seems to figure out to $54 an hour loss rate for 340 hours.

I know, the gang here will say this is normal loss. One must expect loss like these. I've been playing for years and this loss rate is new to me. Especially @ quarter play. In my opinion, this is a huge unlucky streak. Unprecidented loss, including the old days of $5 Double Joker 3 coin in AC, $1 Bonus progressives in Vegas and the ever favorite extinct $1 FPDW.

Just looking for some input?

Have a good holiday weekend. Jeep.

[whitejeeps]

Hi Mickey

I'm not comfortable with losing and never will be. One fact for sure; any even game that has the potential to let you walk away with 8 or 10 G win will also painfully take as much from you --- It's an even game. Last year I had left the joint with well over 10 thousand in signers. Dealt As % kicker for 5000 then As an catching 6 kickers on draw. I sprinkled in 2 roys and some other good stuff giving me an excellent session. Again, as nice as the games can be; they can also be brutal. Catching 6 out of 10 was nice. Sprinkled in a couple roys and some other stuff and I had a nice session. If I were to go back a year from today the win loss would be respectable.

Your right about volitable games. 9/6 JOB with a .5 cb is like a s stroll in the park if comps is the goal. The problem is there is only a very limited supply of this DDB machine in the joint I go to. There are no other even close to good games. Your thinking about the place having a hex on me is well taken. But, numbers will turn around, its just painful. If I was in Vegas I would have played other places untill luck changed better in bad luck place. Before I'd walk I would use comp points and clean up on every dollars worth of coupons as I'm walking away.

If I change casinos and play same machine in another property whats to prevent me from losing another 5G in another place. That's what I would do if another casino was near. Luck can be a factor but I'm inclined to believe in the numbers in most cases.

"Sunk costs", I like that one; sort of good $$ after bad. Every day is a new day in random gambling.

Thanks to all who replied. I enjoyed reading the thoughts.

Cheers... Jeep
.
.
ps@> wrote:

···

- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mikeymic" <mikeymic@...> wrote:

My initial thought is that you have become comfortable with losing. I certainly don't mean that you enjoy the financial "hit" you are taking. Rather, the casino (or casinos) that you visit have hooked you on whatever cashback or comps they offer. So, you continue to be comfortable there and enjoy those perks in spite of the fact you aren't winning.

I can tell you that I have saved myself in video poker by being strong enough to walk away from thousands of dollars in comps at casinos where I SHOULD have won but experienced repetitive bad luck. And I was playing 9/6 Jacks and NSUD which I consider to be a bit more "dependable" than even the 10/6 version of DDB. Yet I lost consistently at places I should have won and absolutely had to walk.

The fact that two of you are both not doing well suggests that where you are playing just isn't your place. As another member posted, how will you feel if you drop another $5K into the bottomless pit with no better result? Your confidence will drop and so can your skill. Then, panic can set in and you are doomed. The casino is betting on it.

I don't want to see that happen. So, don't let where you are playing "win". You and your wife have both tried enough with all those sessions and are now done. Take your business elsewhere and don't look back.

Walk away.

Since I have been in your position I refer to anything in the past as a "sunk cost", to use an accounting term. It is money that is gone and irrelevant.

So, you are now starting today fresh from Day One.

I suggest that you continue playing, since the two of you enjoy it. Always make good game and slot club choices and play as skillfully as you can. But vow to explore and now take your play elsewhere. You'd be surprised how quickly you'll wish you have made the move sooner.

Better luck,

Mikey

[randi]

Whitejeeps,
       Your story is depressing. I know the feeling. Here is my story. From January 17 to March 28 I played 380220 hands with zero royal flushes. During this period I lost $18540. Play was mostly on quarter single line and 3 play and 5 play full pay machines. There was about 3000 hand of dollar 9/6 jacks and 20000 hands of 50 cents NSUD. My worst game was quarter 3 play bonus poker progressive ,which I only played when the progressive put the game over 100%. I lost about $4000 on this game playing about 40000. My best game was quarter full pay deuces where I was ahead about $2100 playing 49000 hands. During this period my wife was winning about $2000 playing about 60000 hands. Cash back and free play during this period for both of us was about $8000.

randi.d
   
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