It's not worth playing unless, perhaps, the casino gives very good bounceback offers.
First of all, if you play the game with perfect "normal" 96 DB strategy, your return will be 99.76%. To get over 100%, you'll have to learn strategy changes caused by the big RF payout.
If you learn the strategy variations, and if you play it perfectly at 800 hands an hour, your ev would be about $4/hr. Calculation of "NO" tells us that after 93 million hands, you'd still have one chance in six of being behind. That's just 116,000 hours of play!
If you have a $300,000 bankroll, you'll still have a 25% chance of going broke eventually. (that fig comes from the jazbo-sorokin equation.)
If you want to play through $50K in action to see about the bounceback, you're still taking a hefty risk. 41% of the time you'll lose more than $2000. 12% of the time your loss will be greater than $4000.
What if you find that a $50K play will earn you a bounceback offer of $500? That's very similar to getting 1% cashback. That would lower "NO" to about 700,000 hands, or about 900 hours of play. ,
Say you plan to do the play 10 times and start with $10,000. That is, each time you give $50K in action and you get back $500 in bounceback. You'd have a 31% chance of going broke before you finished the 10th time. The good news is that you'd have a 35% chance of more than doubling your initial $10K bankroll.
So, even with 1% cb or bb, it's a very high risk play.
And all of the above ignores the risk that you might have a fight on your hands if you hit a RF.
--Dunbar
(all calcs done with DRA-VP)
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <vprod618@...> wrote :
I was scouting a local casino and found a db 965 with the royal set at $8,000.00, It DOES have a double down feature, but on the glass it says $8,000.00. If you punch in "see pays" it says five coins, at the one dollar level, pays $8,000.00. I punched the pays into wp and it said it returns 100.094. You get NO slot points at this casino. Is this worth playing? If you did hit the royal, would they pay off the full amount? This is a first to me..Rod
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