To anyone:
How do I calculate the exact odds of winning X amount of dollars
with a Y bankroll on a given VP game (positive OR negative EV)? I
certainly understand that using the info provided by Cindy Liu's video
poker calculator is a good start, but what do I do next?
Here's a simple example problem:
I start with $20 (16 $1.25 units) and play 25c 9/6 JoB. I want
to win $5 (4 $1.25 units or more) and quit. What is the exact
probability of achieving this goal before going broke?
My father has a master's degree in mathematics (and, yes, he's a
VP fanatic, too) and he agrees this type of question can be resolved,
but he believes it is very complex.
Thanks for any assistance.....~Psych.
Humble VP Math Question
All right, here are some hints: you're correct that Cindy's results
are a good start. Mike Shackleford has exact numbers if you want to be
that picky. I'll look at your explicit example, you'll easily figure
out how to expand it.
Let's call P(n) the probability of ever having 20 units or more when
starting with n units (n>=0). Obviously P(0)=0, and P(n)=1 for n>=20.
The number you're looking for is P(16).
Let's call Q(r) the probability of a single hand of VP causing a net
result of r (r can be negative). For 9/6 JoB, here's what the
(approximate) numbers look like: Q(-1)=0.545, Q(0)=0.214, Q(1)=0.129,
Q(2)=0.074, Q(3)=0.011.
Now, you need to put the numbers together in a big system of equations
(19 equations with 19 unknowns): P(n)=sum(r) of P(n+r)*Q(r).
Resolve those equations, and you'll have what you're looking for.
JBQ
···
On 12/1/05, Psychophysical <jimb777@warpdriveonline.com> wrote:
To anyone:
How do I calculate the exact odds of winning X amount of dollars
with a Y bankroll on a given VP game (positive OR negative EV)?
What in tarnation is this nonsense doing over here? Shackleford,
Cindy Liu, and now this guy? Gee, so many players will now be able to
go out and win because of this mathematical info. Maybe I'll stay up
all night and run these calculations so I can be safe the next time I
step into a casino.....
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jb@q...>
wrote:
All right, here are some hints: you're correct that Cindy's results
are a good start. Mike Shackleford has exact numbers if you want to
be
that picky. I'll look at your explicit example, you'll easily figure
out how to expand it.Let's call P(n) the probability of ever having 20 units or more when
starting with n units (n>=0). Obviously P(0)=0, and P(n)=1 for
=20.
The number you're looking for is P(16).Let's call Q(r) the probability of a single hand of VP causing a net
result of r (r can be negative). For 9/6 JoB, here's what the
(approximate) numbers look like: Q(-1)=0.545, Q(0)=0.214, Q(1)
=0.129,
Q(2)=0.074, Q(3)=0.011.
Now, you need to put the numbers together in a big system of
equations
(19 equations with 19 unknowns): P(n)=sum(r) of P(n+r)*Q(r).
Resolve those equations, and you'll have what you're looking for.
JBQ
> To anyone:
> How do I calculate the exact odds of winning X amount of
dollars
···
On 12/1/05, Psychophysical <jimb777@w...> wrote:
> with a Y bankroll on a given VP game (positive OR negative EV)?
Hey, Rob, close up your laptop and get out of the sandbox before one
of the other kids dumps a pail of sand on your keyboard. If you must
sit there, practice your multiplication tables using pencil and paper.
You have about 15 years to go before you are ready to grok
Shackleford, et. al.
Nosnek (that's MR Coyle to you)
···
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rsing1111" <rsinger1111@c...> wrote:
What in tarnation is this nonsense doing over here? Shackleford,
Cindy Liu, and now this guy? Gee, so many players will now be able to
go out and win because of this mathematical info. Maybe I'll stay up
all night and run these calculations so I can be safe the next time I
step into a casino.....
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "noznay_coyle" <noznay_coyle@y...>
wrote:
Hey, Rob, close up your laptop and get out of the sandbox before one
of the other kids dumps a pail of sand on your keyboard. If you must
sit there, practice your multiplication tables using pencil and paper.
You have about 15 years to go before you are ready to grok
Shackleford, et. al.
Nosnek (that's MR Coyle to you)
Someone please tell me....What did he say?
Shakleford's a walking, talking contradiction who blabs the math, yet
runs Internet gambling ads like they were going out of style on his
site. A "math whiz/professor" who pushes what the Justice Dept. has
determined to be illegal activities, who gives the perception long-term
strategy is how he 'wins', but for some strange reason relies on income
from all those pop-ups and ads? If you can make as much sense as that,
please do.