Craig Kleinberg wrote:
I have often wondered after a draw how the cards are dealt. If one is dealt a hand that can be played in more than one way, and the draw reveals the incorrect choice, it would be nice to know whether or not it REALLY mattered.
What REALLY matters is how you play the hand. If you played it for the highest EV (as per the hand rank table or Precision Play rules) then you played it right, regardless of the actual outcome.
I have thrown away pairs in favor of 3 to the royal and the other half of the quad shows up. If all the cards were dealt at once, the position of the cards would have prevented the quads no matter how the hand was played.
In the earliest machines (through the early 1980's) the draw cards lined up "behind" the dealt cards (parallel dealing), so with a different hold you would have received different draw cards. Very few of these machines remain in use in Las Vegas, but you may still find them in small casinos elsewhere.
Since the later 1980's, nearly all machines leave the draw cards "on the deck" and unchanging. When you hit the Draw button, you get the top card(s) off the deck regardless of which dealt cards were discarded. (serial dealing). In this case, a situation as you describe would have given you the big payoff if you had misplayed the hand and drawn for it.
In some of the newest machines, the remainder of the deck is shuffled repeatedly after the deal until you hit the Draw button. Although it doesn't make any difference in the probabilities or the game's EV, I tend to prefer this because, knowing that the deck is being shuffled eliminates the perception that you missed a big payoff because you played the hand according to the correct strategy. Unfortunately, in some people's minds, it may create the idea that you have to hit the Draw button at just the right time to get the best payoff.
As has been repeated here so often, random is random. The shuffle and deal method does not affect the game's EV, and you should not change your strategy.
There is no difference in the actual play of the hand, just in the way one processes the outcome.
Actually, the only difference is in how you PERCEIVE the situation. If you worry about what might have been if you had somehow known that the cards were there for the quads or royal, it may distort your perception of reality and cause you to start making playing errors. You may get lucky and hit a big payoff, but you are much more likely to just reduce your long term payback.
Dan
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Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at http://www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind."
-- Louis Pasteur