9c. Re: How Many Times Has This Happened To You
Date: Mon Nov 9, 2009 9:15 pm ((PST))One certainly could if they want and that one will hit more royals that I,
but at the end of the line, wherever that might be, I will have more in my
pocket than that one will. Now if you are in fact comparing a two card
royal hold, JQs to a paying pair, in most $ progressive games, you will need
a royal somewhere north of $80,000.00 in order for this to be the correct
play. If you spot a $ prog. this high there is something wrong with the
meter.
Or something else fishy -- I once sat down to a $1 three-play with a progressive around $80,000, and fortunately after playing the 8/5 JoB for a couple hours, was ahead, when I read the fine print somewhere, and the progressive pays only if you get a royal on all three lines -- in other words, mostly a dealt royal (translate: mostly never), or the very unlikely way of getting there, drawing to a royal and hitting it all three lines (even closer to never!).
It was nice to be lucky enough to win at 8/5 in spite of the "bad" progressive and in spite of my initial failure to recognize something was fishy -- should have heeded the old saying about "if it seems too good to be true...".
As others have indicated, you will not, based on your personal experience alone, be able to quantify that a given play, such as keeping QQ instead of QJ suited, has a higher expectation than the other way, in any but the most extreme examples. Although you report a very high incidence of "would have made the royal", it is in fact so unlikely that this is a VERY unusual situation, and certainly not one that is likely to make the reverse play correct.
In fact, if you like to think in terms of luck rather than logic, then figure you've used yours up on plays you didn't make, and should never play again 
My frustration lies in another one that happens to me commonly -- seems like whenever I break a made flush to draw to a 4-card royal, I get nothing at all an awful lot -- no flush, no high pair, no straight -- and I've never hit the 4-card royal yet (some 3-card and 2-card, but no 4-card). If I went by my experience and said "never again" as the original poster seems inclined to do, I would never draw to my four card royals, since they never hit and I can just keep the sure pay flush!
But in spite of my personal experience, you can be sure I'll be busting made flushes to draw to four-card toyals whenever I get the chance.
--BG
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