vpFREE2 Forums

how many hands in the long run.

#1

timmer wrote:

How many hands in the long run? I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere around 4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.

Any comments?

When I first started writing about video poker, I picked a figure out of the air and said that "the long run" is at lease 5 royal cycles, or about 2 million hands, or about a year of full-time play at 50 hours per week. Later I amended that to ten royal cycles, which is about the figure you used.

Now, however, I try to avoid putting a number on "the long run." Instead, I suggest that you first decide what Risk of Ruin you are willing to tolerate. Will you accept a 5% probability of losing your entire bankroll? Whatever number you decide upon, now use the Sorokin formula on your game of choice, and find out how big a bankroll you need.

You will probably find that you need a much larger bankroll than you expected.

And how long will that bankroll last? That is the long run.

Dan

···

--

Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at http://www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind."
-- Louis Pasteur

#2

Dan has a typo here since 5 RF cycles is about 200,000 hands.

The vpFREE FAQ references this number which I saw in one of
Dan's books. I'm working on revising the entry in the FAQ:

11. What is the long run? - As you play more and more hands, luck's effect
diminishes and skill's effect increases and the closer your results will
approach the underlying ER. Dan Paymar considers the long term to be 200,000
or more hands.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 6 Oct 2003 at 9:51, Dan wrote:

When I first started writing about video poker, I picked a figure out of
the air and said that "the long run" is at lease 5 royal cycles, or
about 2 million hands, or about a year of full-time play at 50 hours per
week. Later I amended that to ten royal cycles, which is about the
figure you used.

#3

Dan Paymar considers the long term to be 200,000
or more hands.

I haven't read where he says that, but is that based on a specific
game or all games?

The only problem with a low 200,000 hands is that as the number of
hands increases the chances of an overall positive result also
increase. Long term should be considered as the point at which the
positive expectation is at its highest, even if, in some cases the
highest expectation is still negative, and considerations of game
played are a factor there.

lb

#4

I like few people have a bankroll that is 10,000 betting units
strong. So Im not concerned about busting out beyond a couple tenths
of a percent (1:500 chance). I also add cash back to my BR. What I
am concerned with is what my hourly win rate is and how long before
it is statistically significant.

I have played over 1,000,000 hands of FPDW and am winning more than
than what the game should be paying. Im Not including cash back in
this number. Perhaps Im playing more HPH that I thought. but I'm
Winning about $.70 per hour more than I should. Hence the question.

correct me if I am wrong but,isnt a royal cycle the average number
of hands in which you recieve 1 royal Flush?

timmer wrote:
>How many hands in the long run? I read in various books and

articles

>that it floats somewhere around 4,000,000 hands . I figure

slightly

>more for Joker type games.
>
>Any comments?

When I first started writing about video poker, I picked a figure

out

of the air and said that "the long run" is at lease 5 royal

cycles,

or about 2 million hands, or about a year of full-time play at 50
hours per week. Later I amended that to ten royal cycles, which is
about the figure you used.

Now, however, I try to avoid putting a number on "the long run."
Instead, I suggest that you first decide what Risk of Ruin you are
willing to tolerate. Will you accept a 5% probability of losing

your

entire bankroll? Whatever number you decide upon, now use the

Sorokin

formula on your game of choice, and find out how big a bankroll

you

need.

You will probably find that you need a much larger bankroll than

you expected.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan <Dan@O...> wrote:

And how long will that bankroll last? That is the long run.

Dan

--

Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at http://www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind."
-- Louis Pasteur