I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere around
4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.
Any comments?
Get busy
timmer
how many hands in the long run.
It varies by game as variance plays a role in the calculation. As an
example from 10-7 DB, for a 95% chance of being within +/- 1% of EV
you need to play 1,085,465 hands.
In table form, 95% confidence
99.17% to 101.17% 1,085,465 hands
99.67 to 100.67 4,341,859 hands
100.92 to 100.42 17,367,437 hands
100.07 to 100.27 108,546,482 hands
100.12 to 100.22 434,185,930 hands
Using a 99% confidence interval requires many more hands. So be sure
to get your hours in if you plan to quit your day job. Good luck.
TomSki
I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere
around
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "timmer" <timmr21@y...> wrote:
4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.
Any comments?
Get busy
timmer
timmer wrote:
I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere around
4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.
I had the impression that it might be generally somewhat shorter than
that, but I don't imagine that's a bad working figure. There's one
related point worth noting:
Because of the reduced likelihood that shorter play will come in very
close to game EV, many justify varying from strategy on occasion --
the implication being that if results are quite uncertain why not
gamble on a long shot. After all, "error cost" is theoretical and not
actual.
However, the long royal cycle is largely responsible for the sizable
"long term" of video poker. When it comes to the greater portion of
paying hands the cycle is much shorter and thus the predictability of
the cost of strategy deviations (or unintentional errors) becomes much
more certain.
For the better part, when you look at the theoretical cost of strategy
errors in vp software you're looking at something that is very
tangible and that will bear out with a significant degree of
confidence in your play. We're not talking about millions of hands
here, but something far more immediate.
- Harry
This question cannot possibly be answered unless one defines what is
meant by "long-term". Once that is done it can be answered precisely, as
done by TomSki. TomSki supplied his own definition(s), which is
certainly reasonable. "Long-term" is a relative term.
I think most people would settle for a much lower confidence factor
than 95%, BTW.
Thanks,
Skip
Harry Porter wrote:
···
timmer wrote:
> I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere around> 4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.
I had the impression that it might be generally somewhat shorter than
that, but I don't imagine that's a bad working figure. There's one
related point worth noting:Because of the reduced likelihood that shorter play will come in very
close to game EV, many justify varying from strategy on occasion --
the implication being that if results are quite uncertain why not
gamble on a long shot. After all, "error cost" is theoretical and not
actual.However, the long royal cycle is largely responsible for the sizable
"long term" of video poker. When it comes to the greater portion of
paying hands the cycle is much shorter and thus the predictability of
the cost of strategy deviations (or unintentional errors) becomes much
more certain.For the better part, when you look at the theoretical cost of strategy
errors in vp software you're looking at something that is very
tangible and that will bear out with a significant degree of
confidence in your play. We're not talking about millions of hands
here, but something far more immediate.- Harry
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You're replying to timmer's post and comment/question, right Skip :).
It get's a little confusing when you include a peripheral reply in
your quoted text.
- Harry
Skip Hughes wrote:
···
This question cannot possibly be answered unless one defines what is
meant by "long-term".
Harry Porter wrote:
>
> timmer wrote:
> > I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere
> > around 4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type
> > games.
>
> I had the impression that it might be generally somewhat shorter
> than that ...
No, Im figuring on playing at least 4M hands of VPin the next few
years.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
timmer wrote:
> I read in various books and articles that it floats somewhere
around
> 4,000,000 hands . I figure slightly more for Joker type games.
For the better part, when you look at the theoretical cost of
strategy
···
errors in vp software you're looking at something that is very
tangible and that will bear out with a significant degree of
confidence in your play. We're not talking about millions of hands
here, but something far more immediate.- Harry