vpFREE2 Forums

How do you do at MS vs Regulated Gambling Destinations

#1

In a message dated 3/10/2005 8:08:20 PM Eastern Standard Time,
rodvideopoker@aol.com writes:
re: how do you do at MS??
I have one question for you JOEL) do you honestly feel in your heart the vp
machines
at MOHEGAN SUN are in fact random??? Personally I have my
doubts…
When I step back and look at my results at MS over the last five years vs Las
Vegas, A/C and more recently Reno, and Miss and when I look at the EV and my
Royals, in my opinion the royals are not based on a 52 card deck RNG at MS.

I easily played between 200K and 300K hands in each of the last two years and
got one royal each year. My play in the prior three years was not as heavy
but my total royals for 2000-2002 was one royal.

The problem is that we (especially my wife) loves the place. We enjoy the
shows, concerts, dinners, she loves the shopping and we enjoyed the suites when
we got them. It alot more family friendly then A/C with Kids Quest.

My goal is to reduce my play there and to treat it more of a vacation expense
(as it has been) My results at Foxwoods have been just as pathetic as MS with
only 1 royal ever.

I plan to take more trips to A/C, Miss and Vegas and to substantially reduce
my bankroll when I go to MS.

Joel

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

---Joel,
I have to disagree with you. Either the VP is run by a RNG or it is
not. It cannot distingush between Royals and other hands. We go to
Vegas about six times a year and on our visit last Christmas my
wife and I playing single line hit more royals in that one trip (5)
than in the previous 3 years. It is just a mathematical fluke. I did
not hit a royal last year at MS going about 8 times but still wound
up winning overall. A friend of mine who goes has hit 4 royals there
playing less than you. Just my opinion
Mel

In a message dated 3/10/2005 8:08:20 PM Eastern Standard Time,
rodvideopoker@a... writes:
re: how do you do at MS??
I have one question for you JOEL) do you honestly feel in your

heart the vp

machines
at MOHEGAN SUN are in fact random??? Personally I have my
doubts…
When I step back and look at my results at MS over the last five

years vs Las

Vegas, A/C and more recently Reno, and Miss and when I look at the

EV and my

Royals, in my opinion the royals are not based on a 52 card deck

RNG at MS.

I easily played between 200K and 300K hands in each of the last

two years and

got one royal each year. My play in the prior three years was not

as heavy

but my total royals for 2000-2002 was one royal.

The problem is that we (especially my wife) loves the place. We

enjoy the

shows, concerts, dinners, she loves the shopping and we enjoyed

the suites when

we got them. It alot more family friendly then A/C with Kids Quest.

My goal is to reduce my play there and to treat it more of a

vacation expense

(as it has been) My results at Foxwoods have been just as pathetic

as MS with

only 1 royal ever.

I plan to take more trips to A/C, Miss and Vegas and to

substantially reduce

···

In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, joel0457@a... wrote:

my bankroll when I go to MS.

Joel

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@y...> wrote:

---Joel,
I have to disagree with you. Either the VP is run by a RNG or it
is not. It cannot distingush between Royals and other hands.

...

Mel

Mel,

I machine can be run by a RNG and still cheat. In the notorious case
of American Coin (where the programmer turned witness Larry Volk was
murdered), there was a RNG, but "upstream" programming had all RF
hands rejected and a new random draw was made.

More sophisticated programming could have only a certain fraction of
RFs and other premium hands rejected, but not all.

I have played over 200T hands of $1 JOB at MS w/o ever getting a
royal. Only royal there was at 10 play 25c SAs. I also played 20T
hands of PE at the old machines at the sports bar w/o quads.
However, as the machines have changed, I believe they are on the up
and up now. Certainly a number of my friends who played $5 job had
their fair share of RFs (which may be one reason for the
downgrades). Well off to Vegas tomorrow.

David

#4

--David
Well I stand corrected. I still believe the new machines are on the
up and up or they never would have downgraded them.
Mel

- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "d_richheimer"
<d_richheimer@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@y...> wrote:
>
> ---Joel,
> I have to disagree with you. Either the VP is run by a RNG or

it

> is not. It cannot distingush between Royals and other hands.
...

> Mel

Mel,

I machine can be run by a RNG and still cheat. In the notorious

case

of American Coin (where the programmer turned witness Larry Volk

was

murdered), there was a RNG, but "upstream" programming had all RF
hands rejected and a new random draw was made.

More sophisticated programming could have only a certain fraction

of

RFs and other premium hands rejected, but not all.

I have played over 200T hands of $1 JOB at MS w/o ever getting a
royal. Only royal there was at 10 play 25c SAs. I also played 20T
hands of PE at the old machines at the sports bar w/o quads.
However, as the machines have changed, I believe they are on the

up

···

and up now. Certainly a number of my friends who played $5 job had
their fair share of RFs (which may be one reason for the
downgrades). Well off to Vegas tomorrow.

David

#5

Just thought I'd throw my personal experience in -- I played about
400,000 hands of $1 Pick 'Em over 6 months or so last year. In that
time, I received almost exactly my fair share of quads, and 2
royals. The royal cycle for PE is about 356K hands, which means I
got one more than I "deserved". Didn't really play any other games,
but have no reason to think that they're not fair.

I stopped playing after the downgrade, with no intention of going
back, except to cash in on free shows, etc. Ironically, about a week
after I stopped going, I received a Sachem card in the mail. Wasn't
even Sagamore before...

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@y...> wrote:

--David
Well I stand corrected. I still believe the new machines are on the
up and up or they never would have downgraded them.
Mel

- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "d_richheimer"
<d_richheimer@y...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
> <mel3dmd@y...> wrote:
> >
> > ---Joel,
> > I have to disagree with you. Either the VP is run by a RNG or
it
> > is not. It cannot distingush between Royals and other hands.
> ...
>
> > Mel
>
>
> Mel,
>
> I machine can be run by a RNG and still cheat. In the notorious
case
> of American Coin (where the programmer turned witness Larry Volk
was
> murdered), there was a RNG, but "upstream" programming had all RF
> hands rejected and a new random draw was made.
>
> More sophisticated programming could have only a certain fraction
of
> RFs and other premium hands rejected, but not all.
>
> I have played over 200T hands of $1 JOB at MS w/o ever getting a
> royal. Only royal there was at 10 play 25c SAs. I also played 20T
> hands of PE at the old machines at the sports bar w/o quads.
> However, as the machines have changed, I believe they are on the
up
> and up now. Certainly a number of my friends who played $5 job

had

···

> their fair share of RFs (which may be one reason for the
> downgrades). Well off to Vegas tomorrow.
>
> David

#6

I stopped playing at MS in Feb., when Foxwoods had dbl points month,
and they raised my gift card from $10 to $20. At MS, I think there
is quite a lag time between your play and when marketing catches up
to you. Contrarily, at Foxwoods, I barely played 2 weeks at .25 JWD
when they sent my first $5/wk card.

The slot & VP machines are semi-regulated by the State of
Connecticut, as the State receives 25% of the profit from the
machines (nothing from table games however.) They are required to
payout from 80%-100% overall per machine. There might be some loose
interpretation to how that's defined. They do not have the numerous
regulations involving fair play in AC or Vegas. However, it would be
somewhat of a scandal if it were found that the machines were
deceptively cheating the players. Connecticut citizens would be
outraged and the media would play it up. This is where it's best to
write to our legislature or the Hartford Courant to enact further
regulation.

I believe with ~95% surety that the machines play fair. Even though
I've been on the unlucky side in PKM, I've been within reasonable
variance. The 5% of me that's unsure is still worthy of concern.
Unfortunately, it takes millions of plays to detect a small % of
bias. However, I have said that the nature of VP is to be pseudo-
random -- where the numbers seem to add up in the very long term, but
can act very unrandom, "streaky" or "clumpy" in the short term.