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How do vp experts like Bob Dancer play the 3-card Royal Flush hands?

#1

When dealt 3-card to a Royal Flush, how do vp pros/experts like Bob
Dancer play these hands?
(Assuming the regular Royal Flush jackpot of 4000 credits)

I heard some people say that they go for the Royal Flush 100% of the
time even if they have AA, KK, QQ, or JJ in all types of vp games.

When playing games such as DDB or TDB or Super Aces, I will never throw
away the other Ace to go for the RF while if playing JoB, I do throw it
away once in awhile.

Sorry, I didn't do a search first but, is there a Poll already on how
many here always go for the RF when dealt this 3-card Royal Flush?

Thanks!
gilbert

#2

Addressing the title question, I can answer for no expert other
than myself. It is always my goal to play every hand EXACTLY like a
computer program would. I've made adjustments for various promotions.
For example, if you got paid double for heart royals on Valentine's Day
and I was playing 9/6 Jacks or Better, I'd play Ah Kh Qh Qs 4d
differently than I would Ac Kc Qc Qd 4d. Not because of a hunch, but
because the parameters are different. I've written several times in my
various columns about adjustments I've made for various casino
promotions. There can be tax consequences or speed-of-paying W2Gs that
could affect the decision as well.

  There are hands where I don't know the correct play. (I might be
playing a progressive, for example, and am unsure of all of the
breakpoints). This uncertainty is likely true for me less frequently
than it is for non-expert players, because I study a lot before I play,
but nobody is expert at all games.

#3

gilbert_616 wrote:

When dealt 3-card to a Royal Flush, how do vp pros/experts like Bob
Dancer play these hands?

I heard some people say that they go for the Royal Flush 100% of the
time even if they have AA, KK, QQ, or JJ in all types of vp games.

When playing games such as DDB or TDB or Super Aces, I will never
throw away the other Ace to go for the RF while if playing JoB, I do
throw it away once in awhile.

Bob has chimed in. I'll give you an answer from a wannabe.

Looking at JB and the hand (KQJ)h Jd 8s -- holding the KQJ you'll
complete the royal once in 1081 tries. The KQJ has a .2405 coin
disadvantage (about a quarter on a $1 game) to the JJ hold. That
means for every successful completion of a royal from a KQJ hold,
you've sacrificed 260 coins EV.

No pro, nor any other player who obsesses on their bankroll, is going
to undertake such a play.

Now, I'm not anal enough this morning to calculate the probability of
this play (it's not terribly difficult). Suffice it to say that it's
infrequent enough that the cost per hand played over the course of
those 1081 expected attempts is pretty small. Consequently, should a
casual player get enough of a thrill out of chasing the royal from a 3
card hold, I won't begrudge them from going for it.

Speaking for myself, I've come to grips with that one in 1081 shot
expectation and, even when the 3 royal hold is optimal, I play through
it without even a whit of static electricity.

- Harry

#4

...... I've written several times in my various columns about
adjustments I've made for various casino promotions. There can be tax
consequences or speed-of-paying W2Gs that could affect the decision as
well........

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:

==================================================

Bob, I hesitate to augment what you, the great Guru wrote, but I
believe you forgot to mention another condition that could affect your
decision.

That is, whether you are wearing your tin foil or your Saran Wrap
hat!

~Babe~

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

gilbert_616 wrote:
> When dealt 3-card to a Royal Flush, how do vp pros/experts like

Bob

> Dancer play these hands?
>
> I heard some people say that they go for the Royal Flush 100% of

the

> time even if they have AA, KK, QQ, or JJ in all types of vp games.
>
> When playing games such as DDB or TDB or Super Aces, I will never
> throw away the other Ace to go for the RF while if playing JoB, I

do

> throw it away once in awhile.

Bob has chimed in. I'll give you an answer from a wannabe.

Looking at JB and the hand (KQJ)h Jd 8s -- holding the KQJ you'll
complete the royal once in 1081 tries. The KQJ has a .2405 coin
disadvantage (about a quarter on a $1 game) to the JJ hold. That
means for every successful completion of a royal from a KQJ hold,
you've sacrificed 260 coins EV.

No pro, nor any other player who obsesses on their bankroll, is

going

to undertake such a play.

Now, I'm not anal enough this morning to calculate the probability

of

this play (it's not terribly difficult). Suffice it to say that

it's

infrequent enough that the cost per hand played over the course of
those 1081 expected attempts is pretty small. Consequently, should

a

casual player get enough of a thrill out of chasing the royal from

a 3

card hold, I won't begrudge them from going for it.

Speaking for myself, I've come to grips with that one in 1081 shot
expectation and, even when the 3 royal hold is optimal, I play

through

···

it without even a whit of static electricity.

- Harry

----------------------------------------

Thanks again for your inputs Bob and Harry!

Talk about the "sacrificed coins" in holding the 3-card RF and if you
play say 700-800 hands per hour, how many times (on average) would
you get the dealt 3-card RF in an hour play?
Not counting some of them which are for sure not having any penalty
related card(s) or no high pair therefore holding the 3 cards are the
obvious choice.

I happened to hit many royals from holding 3 cards but now, wondering
if it was worth it!? (now I'm confused :<)
Again this question is for the regular 4000 coin jackpot and not any
promo or progressive jackpot.

Thanks again.
gilbert

#6

Excluding progressives and promos from the equation makes things a
lot easier. Several respected experts (Dancer, Boyd, Skip,
Grochowski, etc.)offer strategy summaries clearly indicating (by
game and pay scale) when 3-card Royals (of various compositions)
bring a better return than a high pair. If you're not overly
concerned with penalty cards, VPFREE has links providing basically
the same info.

> >
----------------------------------------

Thanks again for your inputs Bob and Harry!

Talk about the "sacrificed coins" in holding the 3-card RF and if

you

play say 700-800 hands per hour, how many times (on average) would
you get the dealt 3-card RF in an hour play?
Not counting some of them which are for sure not having any

penalty

related card(s) or no high pair therefore holding the 3 cards are

the

obvious choice.

I happened to hit many royals from holding 3 cards but now,

wondering

if it was worth it!? (now I'm confused :<)
Again this question is for the regular 4000 coin jackpot and not

any

···

In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

promo or progressive jackpot.

Thanks again.
gilbert

#7

Babe wrote: Bob, I hesitate to augment what you, the great Guru wrote,
but I
believe you forgot to mention another condition that could affect your
decision.

That is, whether you are wearing your tin foil or your Saran Wrap
hat!

  I've been wondering, Babe. Have you been smoking Saran Wrap
again?

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

#8

<<I happened to hit many royals from holding 3 cards but now, wondering
if it was worth it!? (now I'm confused :<)>>

The Frugal Video Poker software has a feature that can figure exactly how much EV you are losing by using a different strategy. I am rushed right now but perhaps someone else can do it and report.

···

________________________________________
Jean $¢ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
   frugal products are now available at my
   new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
   E-mail address is queenofcomps@cox.net.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Babe wrote: Bob, I hesitate to augment what you, the great Guru wrote,
but I believe you forgot to mention another condition that could
affect your decision. That is, whether you are wearing your tin foil
or your Saran Wrap hat!

···

===============================================
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@...> wrote:
I've been wondering, Babe. Have you been smoking Saran Wrap again?
Bob Dancer

Bob, I'm astonished at your allegation! You know that I dislike
smoking!.........unless it's salmon or bacon!
~Babe~

#10

gilbert_616 wrote:

Talk about the "sacrificed coins" in holding the 3-card RF and if you
play say 700-800 hands per hour, how many times (on average) would
you get the dealt 3-card RF in an hour play?

I happened to hit many royals from holding 3 cards but now, wondering
if it was worth it!? (now I'm confused :<)

Very approximately, you're dealt 3RF once every 65 hands (I'm still
feeling a little lazy and I'm not calculating the actual value). So,
we'll call it 10-12 times an hour, on average.

I don't know that "Was it worth it?" (concerning a 3RF hold over a HP)
is a useful question.

You take a certain risk and if it pays off, that's good ... if it
doesn't, that's unfortunate. The deed is done and "was it worth it?"
is a question more suited to philosophers than gamblers. A gambler
asks what'll they do next time.

Jean points us in a good direction with a suggestion to look to Frugal
VP for the math on this one. While I previously gave a limited peak
at the numbers with the example of holding suited JQK (the most
valuable 3 RF) over a high pair, FVP allows us to skip some cumbersome
arithmetic and still talk of the general situation you originally
raised: holding any 3 card RF over a high pair.

FVP indicates that shifting strategy so that 3RF is held over a high
pair in 9/6 Jacks reduces ER by .0703%.

The RF cycle is reduced from 39724.4 hands to 34375.9. Consequently,
for every 255316 hands played, you expect to gain 1 addition RF in
play. However, because of the overall reduced expected return, you
look to give up 4897 coins on other winning hands, for a net reduction
in win over that time of 897 coins.

As I suggested before, if you get a sufficient thrill from going for
the royal more often that the tradeoff makes sense for you, then it
can be said that this is a smart strategy move for you. But to
continue to go for it for no other reason than you have done well with
the hold previously isn't sound logic (although not quite as poor as
taking a second shot with a half loaded gun held to your head because
you got lucky with the prior shot ;).

- Harry

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

Very approximately, you're dealt 3RF once every 65 hands (I'm still
feeling a little lazy and I'm not calculating the actual value).

So,

we'll call it 10-12 times an hour, on average.

FVP indicates that shifting strategy so that 3RF is held over a high
pair in 9/6 Jacks reduces ER by .0703%.

The RF cycle is reduced from 39724.4 hands to 34375.9.

Consequently,

for every 255316 hands played, you expect to gain 1 addition RF in
play. However, because of the overall reduced expected return, you
look to give up 4897 coins on other winning hands, for a net

reduction

in win over that time of 897 coins.
- Harry
--------------------------------------------------------

Harry,

These are very valuable information so thanks again for the numbers.
Correct me if I'm wrong but, in the "give up 4897 coins on winning
hands, for a net reduction in win of 897 coins", I assume that all
other possible paying hands from holding the 3RF cards have been
accounted for such as:
- SF (with no A)
- Flush
- Straight
- 3 of a kind
- 2 Pairs
- Jacks or Better

Another assumption I must conclude is that the replies I received for
this topic also applies to multi-play (10-Play, 50-Play, 100-Play)
games in any denomination.

Thanks again everyone!
Gilbert

#12

gilbert_616 wrote:

Correct me if I'm wrong but, in the "give up 4897 coins on winning
hands, for a net reduction in win of 897 coins", I assume that all
other possible paying hands from holding the 3RF cards have been
accounted for such as:
- SF (with no A)
- Flush
- Straight
- 3 of a kind
- 2 Pairs
- Jacks or Better

Don't omit the very valuable quad, the holy grail when holding a pair :slight_smile:

Another assumption I must conclude is that the replies I received for
this topic also applies to multi-play (10-Play, 50-Play, 100-Play)
games in any denomination.

Strategy changes always impact single play and multiplay in the same
manner.

- H.

#13

I wrote:

Don't omit the very valuable quad, the holy grail when holding a pair

I was a little quick on the trigger. (No coffee yet; what more can I
say?) You were referring to hands that could alternately be formed
from 3RF aside from a RF. Yes, those are all accounted for.

- H.