vpFREE2 Forums

Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

#1

2h. Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet
Posted by: "tabrc2002" tabrc2002@yahoo.com tabrc2002
Date: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:48 pm ((PDT))

I play max coins on all single line machines EXCEPT for when I have to play
dollars to get at least a 1% or more EV. Example: When I go to Blue Chip casino
I can play max coin at 9/5 DDB or 7/5 BP for quarters or I can play 99.5 JoB one
coin for dollars or NSU at 99.73. I cannot stomach full coin dollars. I never
play two, three, or four coin because than I would be better off playing the max
and having a much shorter session than risking more to win less. I guess it is a
personal and financial choice.

I don't know the exact returns for the quarter games you're passing up due to short paytables, but I'm pretty sure that most $1 machines are not, as you describe them, "99.5 JoB" for single coin-in; the 99.5% return, as I understand it, includes getting 4,000 coins for 5 coins-in on a royal, or 800 to 1. Although I don't play anything but JoB (maybe someday I'll learn another game), I'm sure the 99.73 for NSU also requires a max payout for the royal, and that it is also given only for max coins-in.

Most machines I've seen are 400 to 1 for the royal if you don't have max coins in, so even on 9/6 JoB, you are no longer at 99.5% (not sure how much less), so you need to consider that vs. the return of the low-paytable quarter machines. In either situation, you will be playing less than 99% return, I'm sure -- better than most slots, I'll guess, but probably not good enough to be "even", even with comps and cash-back. So choosing between a bad paytable at quarters and a good paytable (but not for less-than-full-coin-in) at dollars with only one coin in, is choosing between two losing choices. The better choice is not to play -- and I understand that this is sometimes not acceptable, and that's fine -- IF you understand there's a cost to playing that has increased over your "usual" games.

--BG

···

================

#2

the 99.5% return, as I understand it, includes getting 4,000 coins for
5 coins-in on a royal, or 800 to 1.

It does. (Nit: "800 to 1" and "800 for 1" mean different things. Here
you mean "800 for 1." When you bet 5 coins and hit a royal, you get
4000 coins, which is 800 for 1. If you got 4000 coins *plus* your
original bet back, that would be 800 to 1.)

Most machines I've seen are 400 to 1 for the royal if you don't have
max coins in,

Hm, most machines I've seen have a short-coin royal that pays 250 for 1.

···

On Tue, 14 Jul 2009, Barry Glazer wrote:

#3

Regarding the discussion about playing with max bet...
My wife and I have lost approximately $6,500 so far this year playing mostly single quarter bets with $125,000 coin-in (500,000 hands or 1 royal per 55,555 hands versus projected frequency of 40,799 hands). We have had 9 royals, all on single quarter bets. I think the fair comparison would be the same number of hands at full quarters. This means our loss would have been five times more or $32,500 less the additional $8,437.50 (9 x $937.50) for five coin royals or a loss of $24,062.50. You can adjust that and say we would have received comps of .4% (assume we play only on 3X or 7X days) X $500,000 extra coin-in for $2,000 in additional comps. So a loss of $22,062.50 versus $6,500.

The other approach would be to say, what if we gambled the same coin-in but played max bet for fewer hands and had Royals for the same percent of hands. So assume we would have had 2 Royals. So the new calculation is loss of $6,500 adjusted by $1,875 (2 x $937.50) for a loss of $4,625.

Some notes about what/where we play:
We play primarily at Horseshoe, So. IN where the only full pay VP games that we know at quarters would be $.25 JOB. We don't enjoy JOB and primarily play DDB which is only 8/5 at $.25. I also play some Super Aces which is 7/5 at $.25 on two machines in the entire casino. I have studied play strategies a fair amount and have gone over them with my wife. We don't play perfectly, but should be fairly close. 8/5 DDB on a single coin bet has a EV of 95.55% per VP Genius. So our expected loss for coin-in of $125,000 is $5,562.50. Our play is producing results of return of 94.8%. We are new to VP and enjoy playing for long sesssions. We get a lot of free meals since she is Diamond level.

Some conclusions (often cited on this forum), open to hear thoughts of others:
The more you gamble on a losing paytable, the more you will lose. If we wanted to cut our gambling time to 20% of current time we would have lost about $1,800 less had we played max coins assuming all else equal. Had we instead played 9/6 JOB we would have lost $2,913 playing single coin (assuming EV of 98.37 on single coin less .7% deduction for less than perfect play) or lost $1,500 playing 9/6 JOB max coin (assuming EV of 99.54 less .7 deduction) for same coin-in (20% of single coin hands).

So we are paying a price for playing the game we like for a long time. But assuming we want to play that game for that amount of time, we are better off betting the least amount possible. All this makes those "free meals" pretty expensive doesn't it?

#4

One coin Jacks returns about 98.37%; one coin NSU (300 for a one coin Royal) about 98.6%. That's a little better than the 7/5 BP or the 9/5 DDB, but, IMHO not better enough to surrender a shot at a $1000 return for a $1.25 investment. (Of course one could drive a few miles around the lake to the Majestic Star and find lots of 99.5+ VP

> 2h. Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet
> Posted by: "tabrc2002" tabrc2002@... tabrc2002
> Date: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:48 pm ((PDT))
>
> I play max coins on all single line machines EXCEPT for when I have to play
> dollars to get at least a 1% or more EV. Example: When I go to Blue Chip casino
> I can play max coin at 9/5 DDB or 7/5 BP for quarters or I can play 99.5 JoB one
> coin for dollars or NSU at 99.73. I cannot stomach full coin dollars. I never
> play two, three, or four coin because than I would be better off playing the max
> and having a much shorter session than risking more to win less. I guess it is a
> personal and financial choice.
>

I don't know the exact returns for the quarter games you're passing up due to short paytables, but I'm pretty sure that most $1 machines are not, as you describe them, "99.5 JoB" for single coin-in; the 99.5% return, as I understand it, includes getting 4,000 coins for 5 coins-in on a royal, or 800 to 1. Although I don't play anything but JoB (maybe someday I'll learn another game), I'm sure the 99.73 for NSU also requires a max payout for the royal, and that it is also given only for max coins-in.

Most machines I've seen are 400 to 1 for the royal if you don't have max coins in, so even on 9/6 JoB, you are no longer at 99.5% (not sure how much less), so you need to consider that vs. the return of the low-paytable quarter machines. In either situation, you will be playing less than 99% return, I'm sure -- better than most slots, I'll guess, but probably not good enough to be "even", even with comps and cash-back. So choosing between a bad paytable at quarters and a good paytable (but not for less-than-full-coin-in) at dollars with only one coin in, is choosing between two losing choices. The better choice is not to play -- and I understand that this is sometimes not acceptable, and that's fine -- IF you understand there's a cost to playing that has increased over your "usual" games.

--BG

================

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Barry Glazer" <b.glazer@...> wrote:

#5

> One coin Jacks returns about 98.37%; one coin NSU (300 for a one coin Royal) about 98.6%. That's a little better than the 7/5 BP or the 9/5 DDB, but, IMHO not better enough to surrender a shot at a $1000 return for a $1.25 investment. (Of course one could drive a few miles around the lake to the Majestic Star and find lots of 99.5+ VP)

> > 2h. Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet
> > Posted by: "tabrc2002" tabrc2002@ tabrc2002
> > Date: Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:48 pm ((PDT))
> >
> > I play max coins on all single line machines EXCEPT for when I have to play
> > dollars to get at least a 1% or more EV. Example: When I go to Blue Chip casino
> > I can play max coin at 9/5 DDB or 7/5 BP for quarters or I can play 99.5 JoB one
> > coin for dollars or NSU at 99.73. I cannot stomach full coin dollars. I never
> > play two, three, or four coin because than I would be better off playing the max
> > and having a much shorter session than risking more to win less. I guess it is a
> > personal and financial choice.
> >
>
>
> ================
>

···

On second thought, never mind (except the part of aboutthe Star's decent quarter games). 7/5 BP is a 98.01 proposition; 9/5 DDB 97.87. If comps or cashback or whatever makes the Blue Chip choices necessary, the player will lose a lot less (and get to see 25% more hands) with the 1-coin dollar option. --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jaywilly240" <wha724@...> wrote:

#6

I recently saw a lady playing a 100 play penny machime at The Palms. She was playing one line only at one coin! I cringed to think about her hitting a royal- for $2.50.

The $1 DB progressive at this casino must be a big money maker for George M. Lots of folks put in a twenty or a hundred, and walk when it's gone. They often play short coin and have no player's card.

Typical was a conversation I had with a distinguished looking gentleman who plopped next to me one night. He put $20 in the machine, and pointed at the $4000 plus progressive sign, saying to me, "Someone is going to win that, and it may as well be me!" He proceeded to play one coin, so I said, "No, sir, if you hit a royal you will win $250."

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Lone Locust of the Apocalypse <zorak@...> wrote:

Hm, most machines I've seen have a short-coin royal that pays 250 for 1.

#7

My husband and I began playing VP approximately 10 years ago. I was not good at record-keeping in the beginning, but started keeping track in 2001. Since then I have had 19 Royals and he has had 20. Thank goodness one of the first things we learned was to ALWAYS play max coin or go down in demonination so you could afford to play max coin. I attribute that bit of knowledge to whom else but Jean Scott by way of the Skip Hughes Group. Thank you both so much. Paula in Ohio

#8

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet) a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year. Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the bathroom or just before a show.

#9

H'mmm, let me do the math.

Expectation of a RF is 1 in ~40,000 hands.
42.5 RF per year average X 40,000 hands= ~1,700,000 hands.
~1,700,000 hands / ~600 hands per hour = 2833.33 hours
2833.33 hours / 24 = 118.055 24 hour days
@8hrs per day 118.055 24 hour days = 354.166 eight hour days

So I guess you took 10 days off for vacation?

But then, that WOULD be 10 days EVERY year.

I'm certainly impressed. I guess.

···

________________________________
From: marvele66 <marvele66@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, July 17, 2009 6:24:55 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet) a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year. Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the bathroom or just before a show.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

As this person seems to play a lot, 600 hph is probably on the
conservative side. I know that for games I know well, where the machine
speed permits it, I can easily get 1000 hph. I've hit 1300 hph playing
Jacks.

If they frequently play multi-line then it's every ~40000 draws, not
every ~40000 deals, which would change the numbers a lot too.

···

On Fri, 17 Jul 2009, Guru Perf wrote:

H'mmm, let me do the math.

Expectation of a RF is 1 in ~40,000 hands.
42.5 RF per year average X 40,000 hands= ~1,700,000 hands.
~1,700,000 hands / ~600 hands per hour = 2833.33 hours

#11

This is why I said I was over royaled every year. I don't play anywhere that many hours. I average 25-30 hours a week on poker. More if I'm on a streak, less if the hands are not hitting. There are weeks Ill hit 4-5 royals and weeks I don't hit any. I went on a streak at M were I hit 14 royals in about 3 months.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Guru Perf <guruperf@...> wrote:

H'mmm, let me do the math.

Expectation of a RF is 1 in ~40,000 hands.
42.5 RF per year average X 40,000 hands= ~1,700,000 hands.
~1,700,000 hands / ~600 hands per hour = 2833.33 hours
2833.33 hours / 24 = 118.055 24 hour days
@8hrs per day 118.055 24 hour days = 354.166 eight hour days

So I guess you took 10 days off for vacation?

But then, that WOULD be 10 days EVERY year.

I'm certainly impressed. I guess.

________________________________
From: marvele66 <marvele66@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, July 17, 2009 6:24:55 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet) a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year. Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the bathroom or just before a show.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#12

Someone is fibbing, shame.

David K

···

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: marvele66@yahoo.com
Date: Sat, 18 Jul 2009 04:53:36 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

This is why I said I was over royaled every year. I don't play anywhere that many hours. I average 25-30 hours a week on poker. More if I'm on a streak, less if the hands are not hitting. There are weeks Ill hit 4-5 royals and weeks I don't hit any. I went on a streak at M were I hit 14 royals in about 3 months.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Guru Perf <guruperf@...> wrote:

H'mmm, let me do the math.

Expectation of a RF is 1 in ~40,000 hands.
42.5 RF per year average X 40,000 hands= ~1,700,000 hands.
~1,700,000 hands / ~600 hands per hour = 2833.33 hours
2833.33 hours / 24 = 118.055 24 hour days
@8hrs per day 118.055 24 hour days = 354.166 eight hour days

So I guess you took 10 days off for vacation?

But then, that WOULD be 10 days EVERY year.

I'm certainly impressed. I guess.

________________________________
From: marvele66 <marvele66@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, July 17, 2009 6:24:55 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet) a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year. Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the bathroom or just before a show.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

Yea, I'm fibbing just to impress you wonderful people. Like a give a damn. To impress you even further most of these royals are on less than 100% pay tables(8/5 Triple Bonus +.) Wow, its possible.

#14

I think I've read about this guy.? He is normally in a Jackpot Winners section of a wall or in a magazine.? I've noticed the comments about play are usually "had less than $20 in when the jackpot hit" or "was playing a couple of dollars while waiting for someone" or "waiting for beeper to signal their dinner table was ready".? I'm jealous every time!? I say - more power to ya' dude!!

···

-----Original Message-----
From: marvele66 <marvele66@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Fri, Jul 17, 2009 6:24 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Hitting a royal flush with maximum bet

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet) a year.
Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year. Friends and family
hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when Ive thrown in a couple
bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the bathroom or just before a show.

------------------------------------

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

Is deuces wild your game of choice?

Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet)

a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year.
Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when
Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the
bathroom or just before a show.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "marvele66" <marvele66@...> wrote:

#16

Actually my game of choice is white hot aces or triple bonus plus. I rarely play deuces. Im not sure why its so hard to believe. In a 30 minute period my wife and I hit 3 top jackpots on dollar slots for a total of $16k on a visit here before we actually lived in Vegas. She hit 3 $10k jackpots on nickel video reels in a 3 month period. I actually think hitting the lottery would be more unbelievable than hitting a bunch of royals.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vidi0t" <vid@...> wrote:

Is deuces wild your game of choice?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "marvele66" <marvele66@> wrote:
>
> Ive played VP for 4 years now and I average 40 to 45 royals(full bet)
a year. Ive been pretty lucky and have been over royaled each year.
Friends and family hate me for it. I have hit royals on short coin when
Ive thrown in a couple bucks to kill time waiting for someone in the
bathroom or just before a show.
>