vpFREE2 Forums

Hitting a Royal Flush on your first hand

#1

I don't remember which post, but someone mentioned a story about a lucky guy that hit a Royal on his first hand, playing a certain machine. I knew just such a fellow that worked at the Circus Circus.

One night when scouting, I saw him getting off shift and walking up to a machine. He inserted 5 coins, played a single hand, and after receiving no pay, began to leave. I questioned him and discovered that he always did this, and had been doing it for 20 years. Turns out his first hand Royal occurred on his 6,947th one hand trial.

To repeat: If you would also like to be able to tell a 1 hand Royal Story. just play one hand on every machine you can, everyday. Resting your mental counter after sleep. In about two months you should be able to say honestly,

"So I walked up to this machine and hit a Royal on my First Hand!"

It's all about the story.

~A shadow touched by light cannot survive long.

~FK

#2

My wife did it in Blackhawk,CO!
Machine wouldn't take, the new at the time, yellow 10's. She always uses 10's.
Goes back to the cage and gets older bills. Comes back I'm already down $20+.
Sits down , holds three cards and gets her first royal ever on her first hand.

SBM

···

--- On Fri, 1/7/11, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:

From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Hitting a Royal Flush on your first hand
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, January 7, 2011, 3:17 AM

      I don't remember which post, but someone mentioned a story about a lucky guy that hit a Royal on his first hand, playing a certain machine. I knew just such a fellow that worked at the Circus Circus.

One night when scouting, I saw him getting off shift and walking up to a machine. He inserted 5 coins, played a single hand, and after receiving no pay, began to leave. I questioned him and discovered that he always did this, and had been doing it for 20 years. Turns out his first hand Royal occurred on his 6,947th one hand trial.

To repeat: If you would also like to be able to tell a 1 hand Royal Story. just play one hand on every machine you can, everyday. Resting your mental counter after sleep. In about two months you should be able to say honestly,

"So I walked up to this machine and hit a Royal on my First Hand!"

It's all about the story.

~A shadow touched by light cannot survive long.

~FK

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

To repeat: If you would also like to be able to tell a 1 hand Royal >Story. just play one hand on every machine you can, everyday. Resting >your mental counter after sleep. In about two months you should be >able to say honestly,

If the guy worked 7 days a week, it took him 19 years to hit it. At 5 days a week it took him almost 27 years to hit it.

Kurt

#4

Kurt, I think you are mis-reading Frank's assumptions. The motivated player can probably play one hand a minute if he/she cashes out and moves to a different machine after every hand. In an 10-day, the player can easily log 500 hands, even allowing for some leisurely time to change casinos after exhausting the VP supply at the first one.

If the player "works" 7 days a week, that's 3500 hands a week. In 12 weeks he/she would have played over 40,000 hands, and that's enough to "expect" an RF. 12 weeks is much closer to Frank's 2-month estimate than your 19-year estimate. Someone willing to work long hours at a fast pace could certainly expect to do it in 2 months.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kingofkurtopia" <kingofkurtopia@...> wrote:

> To repeat: If you would also like to be able to tell a 1 hand Royal >Story. just play one hand on every machine you can, everyday. Resting >your mental counter after sleep. In about two months you should be >able to say honestly,
>

If the guy worked 7 days a week, it took him 19 years to hit it. At 5 days a week it took him almost 27 years to hit it.

Kurt

#5

I just went back and re-read Frank's message. Lo and behold, you are right. Next time I'll read twice before posting. lol

Kurt

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:

Kurt, I think you are mis-reading Frank's assumptions.

#6

If you are talking about hitting a royal flush on your first hand in a SESSION, Brad may have done the "impossible" in this category. DEALT a royal on quarter 100-play at the Palms - $100,000!!!!!!

···

________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#7

I can combine an outrageous mistake with an "impossible" first hand of an entire trip. On my first hand of a Las Vegas trip a few years ago, I sat down at a $1 100-play JOB, intending to play 15 lines. I inserted $500 and carefully selected the 15 lines. Then, to make sure I played 5-coins per line, I hit "Max play". Oops. I was shocked when the whole screen lit up with hands--100 of them, not 15--and even more shocked when all of those hands showed 4 jacks and a queen. So, I started the trip with a $12000 win on a mis-bet hand.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

If you are talking about hitting a royal flush on your first hand in a
SESSION, Brad may have done the "impossible" in this category. DEALT a
royal on quarter 100-play at the Palms - $100,000!!!!!!
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#8

Great story! Thanks for sharing it.

Myra

···

On 2011-01-08, at 4:31 PM, dunbar_dra wrote:

I can combine an outrageous mistake with an "impossible" first hand of an entire trip. On my first hand of a Las Vegas trip a few years ago, I sat down at a $1 100-play JOB, intending to play 15 lines. I inserted $500 and carefully selected the 15 lines. Then, to make sure I played 5-coins per line, I hit "Max play". Oops. I was shocked when the whole screen lit up with hands--100 of them, not 15--and even more shocked when all of those hands showed 4 jacks and a queen. So, I started the trip with a $12000 win on a mis-bet hand.

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:
>
> If you are talking about hitting a royal flush on your first hand in a
> SESSION, Brad may have done the "impossible" in this category. DEALT a
> royal on quarter 100-play at the Palms - $100,000!!!!!!
> ________________
> Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
> http://queenofcomps.com/
> You can read my blog at
> http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Outstanding story. Wish I had one just like it.

My main reason for starting this thread was to highlight how some things that seem very unlikely aren't.

Please keep in mind that millions of people make single trips to Vegas every year, and out of those millions of people, it is quite likely that several will have stories like your own.

So the real question is how many people visit Vegas every year that don't have stories like that to tell?

To make this a fair sample, I recommend that everyone that hasn't hit a jackpot on their first hand also chime in, including the people that aren't on vpFREE, and the ones not reading this post.

And please state the total number of "first hands" you've played in your entire life! No estimates. Be exact!

~FK

P.S. Only reply to this post if you haven't read it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:

I can combine an outrageous mistake with an "impossible" first hand of an entire trip. On my first hand of a Las Vegas trip a few years ago, I sat down at a $1 100-play JOB, intending to play 15 lines. I inserted $500 and carefully selected the 15 lines. Then, to make sure I played 5-coins per line, I hit "Max play". Oops. I was shocked when the whole screen lit up with hands--100 of them, not 15--and even more shocked when all of those hands showed 4 jacks and a queen. So, I started the trip with a $12000 win on a mis-bet hand.

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@> wrote:
>
> If you are talking about hitting a royal flush on your first hand in a
> SESSION, Brad may have done the "impossible" in this category. DEALT a
> royal on quarter 100-play at the Palms - $100,000!!!!!!
> ________________
> Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
> http://queenofcomps.com/
> You can read my blog at
> http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>

#10

Similarly, some things that seem likely, aren't. We all pretty much take for granted that we're 'here', despite each of us having overcome billion-to-one odds just being born. I'm not thinking any mystical 'miracle of life' thing, just the hard fact that our individual complement of DNA resulted from 1 sperm in 100 million getting to that egg, which was one of maybe 300 possible eggs that could have been waiting there.

We all start with a piece of luck that in isolation seems impossible. Frank might turn this around and state that it's obviously likely, since there are over 6 billion living examples of it happening. It just depends how you want to look at it.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Outstanding story. Wish I had one just like it.

My main reason for starting this thread was to highlight how some things that seem very unlikely aren't.

Please keep in mind that millions of people make single trips to Vegas every year, and out of those millions of people, it is quite likely that several will have stories like your own.

So the real question is how many people visit Vegas every year that don't have stories like that to tell?

To make this a fair sample, I recommend that everyone that hasn't hit a jackpot on their first hand also chime in, including the people that aren't on vpFREE, and the ones not reading this post.

And please state the total number of "first hands" you've played in your entire life! No estimates. Be exact!

~FK

P.S. Only reply to this post if you haven't read it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@> wrote:
>
>
>
> I can combine an outrageous mistake with an "impossible" first hand of an entire trip. On my first hand of a Las Vegas trip a few years ago, I sat down at a $1 100-play JOB, intending to play 15 lines. I inserted $500 and carefully selected the 15 lines. Then, to make sure I played 5-coins per line, I hit "Max play". Oops. I was shocked when the whole screen lit up with hands--100 of them, not 15--and even more shocked when all of those hands showed 4 jacks and a queen. So, I started the trip with a $12000 win on a mis-bet hand.
>
> --Dunbar
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@> wrote:
> >
> > If you are talking about hitting a royal flush on your first hand in a
> > SESSION, Brad may have done the "impossible" in this category. DEALT a
> > royal on quarter 100-play at the Palms - $100,000!!!!!!
> > ________________
> > Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
> > http://queenofcomps.com/
> > You can read my blog at
> > http://jscott.lvablog.com/
> >
>

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote: We all start with a piece of luck that in isolation seems impossible. Frank might turn this around and state that it's obviously likely, since there are over 6 billion living examples of it happening. It just depends how you want to look at it.

~FK: Well no I wasn't going to turn it around, at first I thought you were quoting me from my book. Here's an excerpt from chapter 2, subheading "Lighting Never Strikes a Slightly Pregnant Women Twice"----

This aspect of probability is all about perspective.
From the perspective of the person that an unlikely
event happens to, the event doesn't seem so
unlikely. It's been said by many that the miracle of
conception is almost inconceivably improbable
when you consider the elements involved. One
single sperm out of 500 million has to find the egg at just the perfect moment. Then that sperm's
genes combine with the genes of the mother's egg,
and after sorting through the 50 billion possible combinations of genetic traits, a child is formed.
Despite how ridiculously unlikely this one in several quadrillion event is, it has happened to all
of us. Just to be alive and reading this book right
now, you had to accomplish something so
improbably that it's roughly equivalent to hitting MegabucksTM four times in a row. Yet here you
are! It's true that one in several quadrillion is
unlikely, but one cycles through those
combinations during every conception, so getting
one result in one cycle isn't that improbable at all.
How things can be incredibly unlikely and
commonplace at the same time confuses the dickens out of some people and is the source of most
casino urban legend.

~Frank Kneeland, Author of The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives--A History and How-To of Video Poker Slot Teams in Las Vegas. www.progressivevp.com

#12

How's this for a thought:

One random result tells you absolutely nothing (unless it violates what you thought were the bounds). But as you increase your sample size, you can start to do Bayesian inference (people do this naturally without knowing the math behind it).

For example, let's say you hit a royal on your first hand. The attendant will come around to congratulate and pay you. Often they will ask you to "play it off" (play another hand) so that someone else can't claim it for another payoff. If you hit another royal on your second hand, the attendant will probably say something like: "wow, that's lucky, I haven't seen that in years." Now, if you hit another royal on your third hand, that's a "pattern" that will probably draw attention. You will probably notice a lot of "suits" coming to check you out, they might call a slot tech to do some checks, they will probably run a camera check and investigate the attendant, they may even call for a manufacturer's rep. They may even refuse to pay, claiming a malfunction, bringing in gaming for an investigation.

Three royals in a row is possible but it's a very unlikely "pattern".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference