vpFREE2 Forums

Hit Rate Percentages

#1

This has been bugging us: We find very little information written on this issue, if it is an issue.

We know that choosing the best VP paytables at any given casino that has the best paytables is the best way to obtain the highest percentage of return on your bankroll.

Here is the issue. Do casinos have the ability/technology to change chips in the machines that produce different percentage of hit rates even though the paytable remains the same?

Example: A VP machine has chip XX inserted. A player plays 5000 hands of JoB 9/6 and has the following results with correct play: RF- 0 or 0.00%; SF- 1 or 0.00%; Quads- 10 or 0.20%; FH- 58 or 1.20%; Flush- 53 or 1.10%; Str8- 56 or 1.10%; Trips- 387 or 7.70%; 2 pair- 633 or 12.70%; JoB- 1053 or 21.10%; No Win- 2,749 or 55%. Note: these results were taken from a 9/6 JoB game played on-line with perfect play using auto play. The play was compared with VPW and it matched exactly for correct play of basic, intermediate and advanced hands.

The casino decides after calculating win/loss percentages that the machine(s) with chip XX inserted has too high of a hit rate percentage and thus their loss rate is too high. They replace chip XX with chip YY which has a lower hit rate percentage based on a random number generator programmed in the chip just for this purpose. The paytable remains the same, but the non-win rate increases for the same number of hands played correctly.

So, if in fact there is such a as a chip that is programmed with a lower hit rate percentage, how do we know the casinos are not using them to make the up the difference of revenue loss during the economic crunch Vegas is now going thru?

We are curious to know how many serious VP players would answer one of the following choices:

1. Yes, definitely agree with your theory and here is why…
2. Agree somewhat, but need more information.
3. Maybe, but not sure.
4. Definitely not, but can not prove it.
5. Definitely not and here is the reason why…
6. Have no idea and I wish you would not have even mentioned it….now I have something else to worry about!

Thanks to all who take the time to read and respond, Kathy and Chuck

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

There have been many paranoid postings about gaffed machines. Except for Class II Indian machines, Indian casinos in Washington State and NY State Racinos (not Indian casinos) every VP machine is required to deal cards with every card having an equal probability of turning up. No casino would risk their license to cheat as you describe.

···

At 12:30 PM 11/28/2008, you wrote:

This has been bugging us: We find very little information written on this issue, if it is an issue.

We know that choosing the best VP paytables at any given casino that has the best paytables is the best way to obtain the highest percentage of return on your bankroll.

Here is the issue. Do casinos have the ability/technology to change chips in the machines that produce different percentage of hit rates even though the paytable remains the same?

Example: A VP machine has chip XX inserted. A player plays 5000 hands of JoB 9/6 and has the following results with correct play: RF- 0 or 0.00%; SF- 1 or 0.00%; Quads- 10 or 0.20%; FH- 58 or 1.20%; Flush- 53 or 1.10%; Str8- 56 or 1.10%; Trips- 387 or 7.70%; 2 pair- 633 or 12.70%; JoB- 1053 or 21.10%; No Win- 2,749 or 55%. Note: these results were taken from a 9/6 JoB game played on-line with perfect play using auto play. The play was compared with VPW and it matched exactly for correct play of basic, intermediate and advanced hands.

The casino decides after calculating win/loss percentages that the machine(s) with chip XX inserted has too high of a hit rate percentage and thus their loss rate is too high. They replace chip XX with chip YY which has a lower hit rate percentage based on a random number generator programmed in the chip just for this purpose. The paytable remains the same, but the non-win rate increases for the same number of hands played correctly.

So, if in fact there is such a as a chip that is programmed with a lower hit rate percentage, how do we know the casinos are not using them to make the up the difference of revenue loss during the economic crunch Vegas is now going thru?

We are curious to know how many serious VP players would answer one of the following choices:

1. Yes, definitely agree with your theory and here is why…
2. Agree somewhat, but need more information.
3. Maybe, but not sure.
4. Definitely not, but can not prove it.
5. Definitely not and here is the reason why…
6. Have no idea and I wish you would not have even mentioned it….now I have something else to worry about!

Thanks to all who take the time to read and respond, Kathy and Chuck

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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#3

Nowhere did I indicate the casino was cheating in my narrative....to the contrary. I am simply asking does the casino have the ability to change the chip to a lower hit rate chip while reporting the change to the authorities at the same time. Now, having said that your answer makes sense that every card must have the same probability of turning up....if they did not by changing the hit rate...then I guess it could be called cheating. Like you, I know the Vegas casinos would never do that.

Thanks for your timely answer.

···

--- On Fri, 11/28/08, Bill Coleman <vphobby2@cox.net> wrote:

From: Bill Coleman <vphobby2@cox.net>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Hit Rate Percentages
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Friday, November 28, 2008, 3:49 PM

There have been many paranoid postings about
gaffed machines. Except for Class II Indian
machines, Indian casinos in Washington State and
NY State Racinos (not Indian casinos) every VP
machine is required to deal cards with every card
having an equal probability of turning up. No
casino would risk their license to cheat as you describe.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

--- Kathy wrote:

Bill Coleman wrote:

There have been many paranoid postings about
gaffed machines. Except for Class II Indian
machines, Indian casinos in Washington State and
NY State Racinos (not Indian casinos) every VP
machine is required to deal cards with every card
having an equal probability of turning up. No
casino would risk their license to cheat as you describe.

Nowhere did I indicate the casino was cheating in my
narrative....to the contrary. I am simply asking does the
casino have the ability to change the chip to a lower hit rate
chip while reporting the change to the authorities at the same
time. Now, having said that your answer makes sense that every
card must have the same probability of turning up....if they did
not by changing the hit rate...then I guess it could be called
cheating. Like you, I know the Vegas casinos would never do
that.

"Can" they do it? My guess is "yes", although you would have to ask
the machine manufacturers themselves, and "internal" information about
slot/VP machines is usually kept private as "proprietary information".

Is it legal, even if you tell somebody? In Nevada, Gaming Regulation
14.040(2)(b) says:
"For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games,
the mathematical probability of a symbol or other element appearing in
a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability of that
symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game."
Translation: "No."
(Well, there's one exception: the "Free Ride" card in MultiStrike, but
I think the machines have to say what the probability is of a Free
Ride card appearing in this case.)

I don't know how the casinos can modify the "hit rate" without
affecting how the cards are dealt.

#5

You have way too much faith in casino ethics, IMHO.

Columbia Sussex risked its license to operate the Tropicana, and lost:
http://www.lvrj.com/business/12456031.html
"In a statement, commissioners, who rejected a recommendation by the
state's Division of Gaming Enforcement to give Columbia Sussex a
one-year temporary license, said the company showed, "a lack of
business ability, a lack of financial responsibility and lack of good
character, honesty and integrity." It is the second time in the
29-year history of legalized gambling in New Jersey that the
commission has denied a license."

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bill Coleman <vphobby2@...> wrote:

No casino would risk their license to cheat as you describe.

#6

Vegas casinos would never do that.

Read the news. There are plenty of legally documented cases of casino
cheating. Even on the Vegas Strip.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Kathy <kc42223@...> wrote:

...then I guess it could be called cheating. Like you, I know the

#7

In response to the original question, it's important to understand the
difference between normal operation and tampering.

The poster asked whether casinos could modify a gaming machine to
affect the "hit rate" of certain card combinations in video poker as
part of normal, regulated operation. The answer is a definite NO.

Cards must be dealt from a standard 52-card deck (w/ one joker
optionally) and must be dealt randomly. As we all know, they can
change the PAY TABLE, i.e. how much certain resultant combinations
pay, but not how often those combinations occur.

Now, no one can say for certain whether or not cheating/tampering,
etc. is going on (I suspect not, esp. for major organizations), but
it's important to understand that affecting WHAT cards show up IS
tampering, and is not in any way part of normal, regulated operation
of the gaming device.

Dan