vpFREE2 Forums

Here's a question for you math inclined folks......

#1

Hello everyone-

Going to Laughlin on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday- they have 9/7 DB in the
non-smoking casino at Harrah's. I'm curious- at .25 level how many points, if
played until gone, would $100 generate on average? I'm not a high roller but
I'm hoping to make 1,000 points on Monday the 29th (it is a 4 times points promo
day) to get the 1,000 Tier bonus points.

I guess another way to phrase it would be on average how much money is it going
to take to reach 1,000 tier credits on .25 9/7 DB?

I look forward to your responses (and accept the criticisms)- Thanks, Lee.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

If you don't get a quad or better you're leaking about 18%, so $100 would go about $556 coin in or 445 hands. The quad cycle is about 423, so you won't get a quad about a third of the time. If you get a baby quad for $62.50, that would take you another $347 coin in. What you have to do is get really lucky and score a middle quad or better for $100 every 445 hands to keep going. There are 9 baby quads versus 4 middle quads or better (234A), 9 to 4 against. Good luck with that!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Lee Crowell <lee.crowell@...> wrote:

Hello everyone-

Going to Laughlin on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday- they have�9/7 DB�in the
non-smoking casino at Harrah's.� I'm curious- at .25 level how many points, if
played until gone, would $100 generate on average?� I'm not a high roller but
I'm hoping to make 1,000 points on Monday the 29th (it is a 4 times points promo
day) to get the 1,000 Tier bonus points.�

I guess another way to phrase it would be on average how much money is it going
to take to reach 1,000 tier credits on .25 9/7 DB?

I look forward to your responses (and accept�the�criticisms)- Thanks, Lee.����

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

For 25-cent 9/7 DB:

If you start with $100:
You'll be broke 51% of the time before you have played 800 hands.
You'll be broke 68% of the time before you have played 1600 hands.

If you start with $400:
You'll be broke <0.1% of the time before you have played 800 hands.
You'll be broke 2% of the time before you have played 1600 hands.
You'll be broke 28% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
You'll be broke 53% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.

If you start with $600:
You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker assuming no cashback and no errors.)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Lee Crowell <lee.crowell@...> wrote:

Hello everyone-

Going to Laughlin on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday- they have 9/7 DB in the
non-smoking casino at Harrah's. I'm curious- at .25 level how many points, if
played until gone, would $100 generate on average? I'm not a high roller but
I'm hoping to make 1,000 points on Monday the 29th (it is a 4 times points promo
day) to get the 1,000 Tier bonus points.

I guess another way to phrase it would be on average how much money is it going
to take to reach 1,000 tier credits on .25 9/7 DB?

I look forward to your responses (and accept the criticisms)- Thanks, Lee.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Thanks NotI- that's what I was looking for- so, if I hit a small 4oak every $100, it would take about $1,100 to get the 1,000 points. But worst case should be $1,900. Less than $1,100 if I hit the better 4oaks. I know, that is not true worst case, but close enough for what I am thinking.

I've got $200 in free play- I will not run through my entire $1,200 bankroll on Monday to reach the 1,000 point level, but if it is in reach, I might stretch. My goal is to have $400 or $500 left for Tuesday, so I can go visit Aquarius for the 10/7 DB. You confirmed what I thought- I'll need to get lucky to reach the 1,000 points in $700 to $800 plus the FP. I'm willing to risk a little more on Monday because I find benefit in TR Diamond level, plus the bonus points.

Thanks to everyone for the info- Lee.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

If you don't get a quad or better you're leaking about 18%, so $100 would go about $556 coin in or 445 hands. The quad cycle is about 423, so you won't get a quad about a third of the time. If you get a baby quad for $62.50, that would take you another $347 coin in.

#5

Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?

I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.

Thanks again, Lee.

···

If you start with $600:
You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.

--Dunbar

#6

If I remember correctly, Bob Dancer in his last radio show said something like you need to be 99%+ on a simulator before you even consider playing vp for real money in a casino. At 95% Harrah's probably has you dominated, meaning you're going to be paying them, fine, as long as you don't mind being the sucker, I mean "valuable customer". You'd be better off just playing the freeplay by itself and see if you can get lucky and get the points you're hoping for. If you bust out, try to hustle a host for some more freeplay, or at least a food or spa comp or something. Or try to exchange for chips and play a table game. Or try to sell your freeplay to someone else or sell some of your action to someone, like they put up $100 and in exchange get $200 if a royal hits.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:

Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?

I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.

Thanks again, Lee.

> If you start with $600:
> You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
> You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.
>
> --Dunbar

#7

You should play at least 1000 hands on WinPoker or some other software that will keep track of your errors, so that you have some kind of idea of what mistakes are costing you per hour. You can play VP on these programs very quickly so getting the data won't take much time.

If you are making errors that cost an extra 2% of the amt you bet ($12.50 every 500 hands), which would be huge, your $600 bankroll results would look like this:

Your chance of busting out before 4000 hands rises from 7% (no errors) to 15% (with errors)

Your chance of busting out before 8000 hands rises from 30% (no errors) to 48% (with errors).

You can see the importance of being competent before you start live play. That said, $12.50 an hour is a LOT of error. For example, even a big mistake like accidentally tossing one of your two-pair on a draw "only" costs $1.18.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:

Interesting- of course this assumes I'm reasonably proficient- thank you all for not pointing out that obvious issue in this analysis- So if I'm 95% accurate with my play, 66.5% of the time I can get to 1,000 points (8,000 hand at $1.25 per hand) on $600-right? Even if I'm only 17% of the way through a royal cycle?

I have trouble with wrapping my pea brain around the risk of ruin idea, so this helps for my scenario.

Thanks again, Lee.

> If you start with $600:
> You'll be broke just 7% of the time before you have played 4000 hands.
> You'll be broke 30% of the time before you have played 8000 hands.
>
> --Dunbar

#8

The $200 free play makes the 99% play 100% as long as you limit your action to $20K. A decent offer from Harrahs.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@...> wrote:

Thanks NotI- that's what I was looking for- so, if I hit a small 4oak every $100, it would take about $1,100 to get the 1,000 points. But worst case should be $1,900. Less than $1,100 if I hit the better 4oaks. I know, that is not true worst case, but close enough for what I am thinking.

I've got $200 in free play- I will not run through my entire $1,200 bankroll on Monday to reach the 1,000 point level, but if it is in reach, I might stretch. My goal is to have $400 or $500 left for Tuesday, so I can go visit Aquarius for the 10/7 DB. You confirmed what I thought- I'll need to get lucky to reach the 1,000 points in $700 to $800 plus the FP. I'm willing to risk a little more on Monday because I find benefit in TR Diamond level, plus the bonus points.

Thanks to everyone for the info- Lee.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> If you don't get a quad or better you're leaking about 18%, so $100 would go about $556 coin in or 445 hands. The quad cycle is about 423, so you won't get a quad about a third of the time. If you get a baby quad for $62.50, that would take you another $347 coin in.

#9

Just yesterday I was trying to reach the 2500 points. I got to 2297. I was down approx $200 when I reached the 1000 point level I lost another $400 getting to 2173. It cost me $300 to get that last 124 points and I quit. First I was exhausted and mentally did not want to continue and every machine I played at the end was just taking my money, was getting very little play. It is hard to get that many points in one day playing quarter and dollar vp. I had a similar experience trying for DIAD at Harvey's last Sept. Needed 3000 points, got to 2,800 and was so tired I was shaky. At the end I was getting no play, I quit then too. I am not usually a quitter but I do not have unlimited funds to give to them and I do think my age plays a role in how tired I get. I am very disappointed in missing it by so little 2 times.

···

Sent from my iPad

On Apr 26, 2013, at 6:37 PM, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

Dunbar-

Since I bought my new computer last summer, I have been too cheap to download any training software, as I can't find my WinPoker CD ( I think I loaned it to a friend who never returned it). But I did use it for years- my play was over 98% accurate, with hold rate over 99.5%, because I mostly make the small mistakes (Damn penalty cards!). Who knows- because I kept the info over the long run, I may be even more accurate now. But I also assume that in a casino, with it's distractions, playing for an extended period of time, which I rarely have the time to do at home, etc., that my play will suffer. But I have learned much from this group, so I do appreciate the advice.

And this is why I still believe the Administrator needs to make himself available for election to the VP Hall of Fame!

Thanks again to everyone for their input- Lee.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:

You should play at least 1000 hands on WinPoker or some other software that will keep track of your errors, so that you have some kind of idea of what mistakes are costing you per hour. You can play VP on these programs very quickly so getting the data won't take much time.

#11

IF you don't make any play mistakes and IF you have the proper bankroll. At $10K coin in and perfect play, the minimum approximate Kelly bankroll is 29/.01 = 2900 bets = $3,625 at quarters. You could only push it to $20K if you had an infinite bankroll. Novice players need to be very careful with "point challenges", you can very quickly get in over your head. Casinos really shouldn't be pushing these to the general public, it's promoting irresponsible gambling.

http://www.whenthefunstops.com/

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Dave" <haaljo@...> wrote:

The $200 free play makes the 99% play 100% as long as you limit your action to $20K. A decent offer from Harrahs.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "leetcrowell2" <lee.crowell@> wrote:
>
> Thanks NotI- that's what I was looking for- so, if I hit a small 4oak every $100, it would take about $1,100 to get the 1,000 points. But worst case should be $1,900. Less than $1,100 if I hit the better 4oaks. I know, that is not true worst case, but close enough for what I am thinking.
>
> I've got $200 in free play- I will not run through my entire $1,200 bankroll on Monday to reach the 1,000 point level, but if it is in reach, I might stretch. My goal is to have $400 or $500 left for Tuesday, so I can go visit Aquarius for the 10/7 DB. You confirmed what I thought- I'll need to get lucky to reach the 1,000 points in $700 to $800 plus the FP. I'm willing to risk a little more on Monday because I find benefit in TR Diamond level, plus the bonus points.
>
> Thanks to everyone for the info- Lee.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > If you don't get a quad or better you're leaking about 18%, so $100 would go about $556 coin in or 445 hands. The quad cycle is about 423, so you won't get a quad about a third of the time. If you get a baby quad for $62.50, that would take you another $347 coin in.
>