In a message dated 7/17/2003 3:54:02 PM Pacific Standard Time,
vp_n_me@hotmail.com writes:
I wasn't looking for perfection (unless it was relatively easy to
master) but a few days ago when I first looked into holding 3 STFL
Open vs. a lone deuce, I believed I had stumbled across something as
the hands I checked seemed to prefer the lone deuce when there was a
Flush penalty OR, when there was a less than 2 gap Straight penalty
involved. However, I quickly discovered that wasn't regularly true.
So what the heck was I not seeing? Did the 'power of the pack' come
into play? Was the 'generally speaking' I was looking for on this
relatively close play too complicated and difficult to obtain? Well,
while I focused on one type of penalty situation and then the other,
I must admit that while changing cards throughout some hand analysis,
I never thought to look that I may have also created the two card
penalty situations that Brian has mentioned when the preference
changed from 3 STFL Open to the lone deuce. Thanks for the insight,
Brian... the play you mentioned should eliminate the larger errors
and improve my return percentage in 3 STFL Open situations. My
thanks also goes to those kind enough to offer their thoughts and
knowledge as I progress along this journey of mine.
Actually, as you noticed, what I wrote was a simplification of a very complex
situation. And with a straight penalty only, one gap removed from the SF, the
"power of the pack" certainly comes into play. For example, from W6s7s9dQh
the best hold is the SF3. From W6s7s9dKh, the best hold is just the Deuce. In
this case, I would just decide to always hold the SF3, since it will slightly
reduce variance, plus holding just the Deuce might involve tipping and/or hopper
fills should you hit four Deuces, thus costing a bit of EV and your valuable
time.
So, to summarize:
With any two penalties, hold just the Deuce.
With just an adjacent straight penalty (example: W6s7s8dQh), hold just the
Deuce.
With just a one-gap straight penalty, hold the SF3.
The final case above is not "perfect," but will keep you from wasting time
analyzing the individual "power of the pack" cases for a tiny improvement in EV.
Brian
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