The Game: NSUD.
The Question: What is the frequency of natural 4OAKs occurring both
on the deal and post-draw? This involves both 4OAKs (including 4 Ducks
through 4 natural Aces) and 5OAKs that include any natural 4OAK.
Working with a crayon on the back of one of Harry P's proverbial
envelopes, I'm guesstimating that a natural 4OAK will occur about every
500-550 hands. Am I in the ball park?
Dan
Help for the Mathematically Challenged
The Game: NSUD.
The Question: What is the frequency of natural 4OAKs occurring
both
on the deal and post-draw? This involves both 4OAKs (including 4
Ducks
through 4 natural Aces) and 5OAKs that include any natural 4OAK.
Working with a crayon on the back of one of Harry P's proverbial
envelopes, I'm guesstimating that a natural 4OAK will occur about
every
500-550 hands. Am I in the ball park?
Being a little lazy this morning I took a quick look at Deuces Deluxe
in winpoker since its' paytable is similar to NSUD ... it shows a
natural 4oak occurs every 648 hands. To this number you would need to
add in the 5oaks with a natural 4oak+deuce. Since these don't occur all
that often, I would guesstimate the number is closer to 600 hands but
it shouldn't be too hard to use the other side of that envelope if you
want the exact value..
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sechkardan" <sechkar@...> wrote:
sechkardan wrote:
> The Game: NSUD.
> The Question: What is the frequency of natural 4OAKs occurring
> both on the deal and post-draw? This involves both 4OAKs
> (including 4 Ducks through 4 natural Aces) and 5OAKs that include
> any natural 4OAK.
> Working with a crayon on the back of one of Harry P's proverbial
> envelopes, I'm guesstimating that a natural 4OAK will occur about
> every 500-550 hands. Am I in the ball park?
Dick wrote:
Being a little lazy this morning I took a quick look at Deuces Deluxe
in winpoker since its' paytable is similar to NSUD ... it shows a
natural 4oak occurs every 648 hands. To this number you would need to
add in the 5oaks with a natural 4oak+deuce. Since these don't occur
all that often, I would guesstimate the number is closer to 600 hands
but it shouldn't be too hard to use the other side of that envelope
if you want the exact value.
My mind is a little dead in arriving at a guesstimate, but I set aside
the envelope in favor of Wolf Video Poker software -- it permits game
analysis of a paytable with natural and wild hands split.
(Well, you have to fuss a bit: It'll only show the split analysis if
the natural and wild hands in question have different payouts ... I
added "1" to the natural quad and quint hand pays and subsequently
satisfied myself that the resulting hand statistics were unchanged
from a standard NSUD analysis. Plus, I had to use the Super Bonus
Deuces template -- for whatever reason, likely an oversight, the
natural/wild split option isn't otherwise applied to the 5K payout.)
This surfaced the following ending hand cycles for hands with a
natural quad:
Natural 4K: 643.6
5K w/ 1 deuce: 3039.3
Quad 2's: 5360.0
(Note, these values reflect play with the "basic" WVP strategy -- not
perfect play Winpoker strategy (this is why there's a small variation
from Dick's 648 cited value for quads).
When taken together, the frequency with which you end NSUD play with a
natural quad in the final hand is once in 483 hands. (give "sech" a
star 
- Harry
I want to thank both Harry and Dick (mroejacks) for answering this
question for me. Your assistance is greatly appreciated.
Dan
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
sechkardan wrote:
> > The Game: NSUD.
> > The Question: What is the frequency of natural 4OAKs occurring
> > both on the deal and post-draw?