vpFREE2 Forums

Harrah's Diamond in a Day

#1

This was a thread earlier this year and I need a recap. I am currently
a Diamond and need to requalify for 2006.

I will be in Laughlin 9/10/11 Dec and at Harrah's in LV the next three
days. I am toying with doing DiaD at Laughlin. The previous
recommendation was $.05 50 play JoB at about 25 hands per deal. That
will make $18,000 coin in (1800 points) in 5-6 hours at 500 deals per
hour. This would put the number of hands played around 75,000.

At 99.5% (near perfect play) the right on expectation loss would be $90
but I think several who have done this reported losses in the $200-300
range. I think one reported a gain but I can't remember how much.

Any thoughts, comments, or recommendations will be appreciated.

Thanks, REB.

#2

I know several people who have done DiaD (including me in two consecutive years) on those machines, and the results have been all over the map. The bottom line is that "your mileage will vary." Regardless, you're much better off playing on those machines than on anything at Harrah's LV.
   
  Good luck!

···

reb839 <reboozer@yahoo.com> wrote:
  This was a thread earlier this year and I need a recap. I am currently a Diamond and need to requalify for 2006.

I will be in Laughlin 9/10/11 Dec and at Harrah's in LV the next three days. I am toying with doing DiaD at Laughlin. The previous recommendation was $.05 50 play JoB at about 25 hands per deal. That will make $18,000 coin in (1800 points) in 5-6 hours at 500 deals per
hour. This would put the number of hands played around 75,000.

At 99.5% (near perfect play) the right on expectation loss would be $90 but I think several who have done this reported losses in the $200-300 range. I think one reported a gain but I can't remember how much.

Any thoughts, comments, or recommendations will be appreciated.

Thanks, REB.

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#3

reb839 wrote:

I will be in Laughlin 9/10/11 Dec and at Harrah's in LV the next
three days. I am toying with doing DiaD at Laughlin. The previous
recommendation was $.05 50 play JoB at about 25 hands per deal.
That will make $18,000 coin in (1800 points) in 5-6 hours at 500
deals per hour. This would put the number of hands played around
75,000.

At 99.5% (near perfect play) the right on expectation loss would be
$90 but I think several who have done this reported losses in the
$200-300 range. I think one reported a gain but I can't remember
how much.

I would think you would need to prep yourself for at least a 4% loss
on this, or $720, if you want a reasonably strong expectation of
survival on this.

As you know, in absence of a $200 royal, you're looking at a loss
expectation of about 2.5% ($450). If you were playing 75K single line
hands, most players know from experience that there's a reasonable
expectation of no royals. In multiplay, because all 25 hands in a
play stem from a single deal, it's even more likely you won't hit a
royal (on the other hand, it's also more likely that you'll hit more
than one royal ... keeping your overall royal expectation constnat).

Add a little adverse luck, and I'd think that 2.5% loss expectation
could increase to as much as $700 with a modest, but very tangible,
probability. I'm not prepared, off the cuff, to cite probabilities of
this or an even more uncomfortable loss.

Sorry to rain on your parade a bit ... I'm given to look at the darker
expectation of things (but always hope for the best). I'm rarely
suffer more severe luck than that expectation :wink:

At least you'll very likely be spared the $1300+ loss I experienced on
my $20K run in AC playing $'s (the best opportunity at Harrah's).

- Harry

#4

Harry's right. I didn't hit any royals either time I did Diamond in a Day on those machines. If that's your goal, you need to prepare for it, bring the right bankroll (but hope you get lucky).

I will be in Laughlin 9/10/11 Dec and at Harrah's in LV the next
three days. I am toying with doing DiaD at Laughlin. The previous
recommendation was $.05 50 play JoB at about 25 hands per deal.
That will make $18,000 coin in (1800 points) in 5-6 hours at 500
deals per hour. This would put the number of hands played around
75,000.

At 99.5% (near perfect play) the right on expectation loss would be
$90 but I think several who have done this reported losses in the
$200-300 range. I think one reported a gain but I can't remember
how much.

I would think you would need to prep yourself for at least a 4% loss
on this, or $720, if you want a reasonably strong expectation of
survival on this.

As you know, in absence of a $200 royal, you're looking at a loss
expectation of about 2.5% ($450). If you were playing 75K single line
hands, most players know from experience that there's a reasonable
expectation of no royals. In multiplay, because all 25 hands in a
play stem from a single deal, it's even more likely you won't hit a
royal (on the other hand, it's also more likely that you'll hit more
than one royal ... keeping your overall royal expectation constnat).

Add a little adverse luck, and I'd think that 2.5% loss expectation
could increase to as much as $700 with a modest, but very tangible,
probability. I'm not prepared, off the cuff, to cite probabilities of
this or an even more uncomfortable loss.

Sorry to rain on your parade a bit ... I'm given to look at the darker
expectation of things (but always hope for the best). I'm rarely
suffer more severe luck than that expectation :wink:

At least you'll very likely be spared the $1300+ loss I experienced on
my $20K run in AC playing $'s (the best opportunity at Harrah's).

- Harry

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

···

Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote: reb839 wrote:

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#5

reb839 wrote:
This would put the number of hands played around 75,000.

···

================================
harry.porter wrote:
If you were playing 75K single line hands, most players know from
experience that there's a reasonable expectation of no royals. In
multiplay, because all 25 hands in a play stem from a single deal,
it's even more likely you won't hit a royal (on the other hand, it's
also more likely that you'll hit more than one royal ... keeping
your overall royal expectation constnat).

Using the probability of a royal as about 0.000024758 and 75,000
hands, I get the following probabilities.

A = number of royals
B = probability (rounded to 1 place, in %)
C = cumulative probability (same)

A B C
== ==== ====
0 15.6 15.6
1 29.0 44.6
2 26.9 71.5
3 16.7 88.2
4 7.7 95.9
5 2.9 98.8
6 0.9 99.7
7+ 0.3 100

So there's about an 84.4% chance of getting at least one royal. My
question is...do these probabilities change because of multiplay vs.
single line play?
Jeff

#6

a Day on those machines. If that's your goal, you need to prepare for
it, bring the right bankroll (but hope you get lucky).

My question to anyone who has done this: would you use a non-spouse
playing on a second card to attain the goal? Harrah's Total Rewards
says only a legal spouse can share your players club account. That's
also what they told me when I signed up, but then gave me two cards.
Just wondering if anyone has a) done this and b) had any repercussions
if discovered.

Not that I would do anything that even slightly bent the rules. This
is purely hypothetical. An exercise, you might say.

Drew

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Lainie Wolf <lainiewolf702@y...> wrote:

Harry's right. I didn't hit any royals either time I did Diamond in

#7

jeffcole2003oct wrote:

So there's about an 84.4% chance of getting at least one royal. My
question is...do these probabilities change because of multiplay vs.
single line play?

Yes ... variance is higher and the distribution flatens out. In the
multiplay case, outisde of any given tolerance from the EV there's a
higher cumulative probability on each side of the curve, and a lower
cumulative probability within that tolerance from the EV.

- Harry