vpFREE2 Forums

Harrahs contests?

#1

First, has anyone ever won $ for doing one of those Harrah's surveys? I have done a lot of them, and of course nothing.

Also there was a big drawing this weekend at the Flamingo with 50 winners, including $100,000 first place and two $60000 second, a lot of big money for a drawing. Did anyone win, or know a winner, and if so, how many base points had you earned?

I ran up 11,0000 plus points for the event, big play for me, and of course did nothing but lose money and didn't win, just not lucky in drawings. The original mailer said 500 entries, but they doubled total prize money to $500,000, which makes me wonder if there were really way more than 1000 people entered.

(recently did two Palms drawings for a Jetta with 1600 entries in one, 1200 in another....no winnings....and met winners who had 5 entries....argh.... Which makes me wonder, is it worth nothing for a drawing? At least I won money at DDB at the Palms, plus some dumb gifties, if only to lose same money at Harrahs)

By the way Rio and Harrahs Vegas have removed my favorite $5 slots, bonus types like King of Cash, Pinball, Burger whatever it was called with Cheese -- only to put in poor payers such as Sphinx, new 30 coin Top Dollars that suck your money badly, etc. And seems like their VP payables for $5 are getting even worse, like 7/5 bonus, 9/5 DDB, etc.

#2

I won $200 on one of their surveys last year. It was a pleasant surprise.

Regards

A.P.

···

--- On Mon, 3/21/11, Misscraps <misscraps@aol.com> wrote:

From: Misscraps <misscraps@aol.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Harrahs contests?
To: "harrahs@yahoogroups.com" <harrahs@yahoogroups.com>
Cc: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, March 21, 2011, 12:40 AM

First, has anyone ever won $ for doing one of those Harrah's surveys? I have done a lot of them, and of course nothing.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

I'm analyzing something having to do with a hand in
1-2-3-4-4-9-15-25-200 Deuces Wild. The hand is 973s8W, in which the
"best" play is to keep the deuce, but only by a tiny margin over the
straight draw. My question is the bankroll required, according to the
Kelly Criterion, to draw to the deuce instead of the presumably lower
fluctuation straight draw. I've come up with an answer of 35,624
units, which seems reasonable, but I'm not sure I've done it right.
My method was to take the additional frequency of each ending hand
that drawing to the deuce results in over what drawing to the straight
results in, but that required the total frequency of ending hands be 0
instead of the normal 1 that I'm used to in working with the Kelly
Criterion and that the frequency for the straight be negative, neither
of which I'm sure works correctly. Is there a better way of going
about it?

#4

<<I'm analyzing something having to do with a hand in
1-2-3-4-4-9-15-25-200 Deuces Wild. The hand is 973s8W, in which the
"best" play is to keep the deuce, but only by a tiny margin over the
straight draw. My question is the bankroll required, according to the
Kelly Criterion, to draw to the deuce instead of the presumably lower
fluctuation straight draw. I've come up with an answer of 35,624
units, which seems reasonable, but I'm not sure I've done it right.
My method was to take the additional frequency of each ending hand
that drawing to the deuce results in over what drawing to the straight
results in, but that required the total frequency of ending hands be 0
instead of the normal 1 that I'm used to in working with the Kelly
Criterion and that the frequency for the straight be negative, neither
of which I'm sure works correctly. Is there a better way of going
about it?>>

I would try to help you here, Tom, but I am in severe emotional shock after just seeing the astonishingly violent end of the TV series "Big Love." It may take me awhile to be able to get back to thinking about VP.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#5

I don't recall doing a Kelly problem before, so be sure to check my work to see
that I've interpreted your question correctly.

I think the proper way to do this comparison would be to use 30 final hand
combinations rather than taking "the additional frequency of each ending hand."
That allows the ending hands to have the normal frequency total of 1, rather
than zero. It also allows you to distribute the varying results from the
straight draw of 0 bets, 1 bet, and 2 bets among all the final hands from the
deuce draw rather than apportioning them in some other manner or than just using
its expected value of the return of 1 bet.

30 is the product of the 3 final hand possibilities drawing to the straight and
the 10 final hand possibilities drawing to the deuce. If you can assume that
the results of the different draws would be independent, you can set up your
frequencies and difference in results with one example being a probability of
(81560 * 19) / (178365 * 47) for the combination of drawing no scoring hand from
the deuce and a straight from the W987. This would have a result of a loss of 2
bets. Another example would be determining the probability and difference of
quad deuces vs. drawing trips from the 4-card wild straight draw: probability
of (44 * 9) / (178365 * 47) with a resulting gain of 199 bets. Do this for all
30 combinations and then do the calculus required by Kelly.

I cheated and used Excel's Solver rather than doing an analytical maximization
by setting the derivative of log of the product of the 30 possibilities equal to
zero. If I did it right, I came up with an answer of a required bankroll of
81,272 bets.

···

________________________________
From: Tom Robertson <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Mon, March 21, 2011 3:29:31 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Math Help Needed

I'm analyzing something having to do with a hand in
1-2-3-4-4-9-15-25-200 Deuces Wild. The hand is 973s8W, in which the
"best" play is to keep the deuce, but only by a tiny margin over the
straight draw. My question is the bankroll required, according to the
Kelly Criterion, to draw to the deuce instead of the presumably lower
fluctuation straight draw. I've come up with an answer of 35,624
units, which seems reasonable, but I'm not sure I've done it right.
My method was to take the additional frequency of each ending hand
that drawing to the deuce results in over what drawing to the straight
results in, but that required the total frequency of ending hands be 0
instead of the normal 1 that I'm used to in working with the Kelly
Criterion and that the frequency for the straight be negative, neither
of which I'm sure works correctly. Is there a better way of going
about it?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

I would try to help you here, Tom, but I am in severe emotional shock after
just seeing the astonishingly violent end of the TV series "Big Love." It
may take me awhile to be able to get back to thinking about VP.
________________
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

I know I can count on you in my hour of need, Jean. You made me want
to watch that episode of "Big Love." Is it available at the network's
Web site?

#7

I don't follow what you're doing but the Kelly Bankroll (Poundstone's "Fortune's Formula") can be calculated for any option by summing up this formula (the natural log of bankroll growth) for all possible results:

prob x ln((BR+Win-1)/BR)

then iteratively solving for the value of BR (Bankroll) that results in the largest sum (maximum bankroll growth). Your bankroll can be larger than this value (less growth but less risk) but should never be less (less growth and more risk).

Alternately you can use Jazbo's perl script which does the same thing:

http://www.jazbo.com/poker/kellyp.html

Or the approximation for Kelly Bankroll:

variance/edge

Another approximation is the Certainty Equivalence:

EV - Variance/(2x BR)

Every option has a Certainty Equivalence, the option with the highest value is the best for bankroll growth. Note that if you have an infinite bankroll (too big to fail) the formula reduces to EV (Expected Value), or maxEV (Bob Dancer) strategy.

http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ_S.htm

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

I'm analyzing something having to do with a hand in
1-2-3-4-4-9-15-25-200 Deuces Wild. The hand is 973s8W, in which the
"best" play is to keep the deuce, but only by a tiny margin over the
straight draw. My question is the bankroll required, according to the
Kelly Criterion, to draw to the deuce instead of the presumably lower
fluctuation straight draw. I've come up with an answer of 35,624
units, which seems reasonable, but I'm not sure I've done it right.
My method was to take the additional frequency of each ending hand
that drawing to the deuce results in over what drawing to the straight
results in, but that required the total frequency of ending hands be 0
instead of the normal 1 that I'm used to in working with the Kelly
Criterion and that the frequency for the straight be negative, neither
of which I'm sure works correctly. Is there a better way of going
about it?

#8

I'm planning a trip to Vegas and maybe playing at some different casinos this time. I curious about the traffic situation in the area of Texas Station and Santa Fe Station. Also wondering about the traffic around the Henderson area? I'm trying to decide which area is easiest to navigate when unfamiliar with the territory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#9

Both Texas and Santa Fe are on Rancho Blvd. You just drive north or south which is easy navigation although getting to Rancho through the spaghetti bowl might not be.

···

--- On Wed, 3/23/11, hedonist144 <hedonist144@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: hedonist144 <hedonist144@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Vegas traffic
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2011, 12:16 PM

      I'm planning a trip to Vegas and maybe playing at some different casinos this time. I curious about the traffic situation in the area of Texas Station and Santa Fe Station. Also wondering about the traffic around the Henderson area? I'm trying to decide which area is easiest to navigate when unfamiliar with the territory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

The Texas Station and Santa Fe Station are both on Rancho, so they're pretty simple to find.

···

----- hedonist144 <hedonist144@yahoo.com> wrote:

I'm planning a trip to Vegas and maybe playing at some different casinos this time. I curious about the traffic situation in the area of Texas Station and Santa Fe Station. Also wondering about the traffic around the Henderson area? I'm trying to decide which area is easiest to navigate when unfamiliar with the territory.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

<<You made me want
to watch that episode of "Big Love." Is it available at the network's
Web site?

Tom, I don't think you can watch it on the computer but I'm not really up on this type of thing. For all I know you can watch it on a smart phone - but I'm not electronically smart enough to know that. Anyway, you might not enjoy it as I did. I had been watching this series for five years and, as superficial as it sounds, was emotionally connected to, or at least intensely interested, in this not-even-real family.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#12

You can pick up Rancho Blvd. on Sahara, just west of I-15, near the Palace Station, and take it all the way up to the Texas and the Santa Fe. This avoids the freeway maze. Also, don't forget the Fiesta Rancho, right next to the Texas Station, it has some great VP.

   Roberto-Tenore

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

The Texas Station and Santa Fe Station are both on Rancho, so they're pretty simple to find.

#13

You can pick up Rancho Blvd. on Sahara, just west of I-15, near the Palace
Station, and take it all the way up to the Texas and the Santa Fe. This
avoids the freeway maze. Also, don't forget the Fiesta Rancho, right next to
the Texas Station, it has some great VP.

   Roberto-Tenore

---Fiesta used to have great VP. I don't think so any more. Anyone been
there recently for an inventory check? Had nothing last time I was there a
few months ago.

Scot

#14

According to VPFREE2, the Fiesta Rancho still has:

100.76% FPDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)
100.65% JW (FP): 25c(NS)
100.17% DB (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)
100.15% LDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c
100.07% DDB: 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)
99.80% TB+ (FP): 25c, 50c, $1
99.73% NSUD: 25c, 50c, $1
99.69% SDB (FP): 25c, 50c, $1
99.64% Bdlx (...

But I haven't been there in about a year. If these games are gone, the database needs updating.

    Roberto-Tenore

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Scot Krause" <krauseinvegas@...> wrote:

You can pick up Rancho Blvd. on Sahara, just west of I-15, near the Palace
Station, and take it all the way up to the Texas and the Santa Fe. This
avoids the freeway maze. Also, don't forget the Fiesta Rancho, right next to
the Texas Station, it has some great VP.

   Roberto-Tenore

---Fiesta used to have great VP. I don't think so any more. Anyone been
there recently for an inventory check? Had nothing last time I was there a
few months ago.

Scot

#15

Spaghetti bowl? Not familiar with that one. Anyone care to comment on the Henderson area traffic, light or busy?

···

--- On Wed, 3/23/11, Dave Moy <dmoy26040@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: Dave Moy <dmoy26040@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Vegas traffic
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2011, 3:11 PM

      Both Texas and Santa Fe are on Rancho Blvd. You just drive north or south which is easy navigation although getting to Rancho through the spaghetti bowl might not be.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#16

The FPDW were still there a few weeks ago, so I believe most, if not all, of the machines listed are still there.

···

----- tenore_s <tenore_s@yahoo.com> wrote:

According to VPFREE2, the Fiesta Rancho still has:

100.76% FPDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

100.65% JW (FP): 25c(NS)

100.17% DB (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

100.15% LDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c

100.07% DDB: 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

99.80% TB+ (FP): 25c, 50c, $1

99.73% NSUD: 25c, 50c, $1

99.69% SDB (FP): 25c, 50c, $1

99.64% Bdlx (...

But I haven't been there in about a year. If these games are gone, the database needs updating.

Roberto-Tenore

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Scot Krause" <krauseinvegas@...> wrote:

>

> You can pick up Rancho Blvd. on Sahara, just west of I-15, near the Palace

> Station, and take it all the way up to the Texas and the Santa Fe. This

> avoids the freeway maze. Also, don't forget the Fiesta Rancho, right next to

> the Texas Station, it has some great VP.

>

> Roberto-Tenore

>

>

> ---Fiesta used to have great VP. I don't think so any more. Anyone been

> there recently for an inventory check? Had nothing last time I was there a

> few months ago.

>

> Scot

>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#17

Thanks for all the replies.

···

--- On Wed, 3/23/11, tenore_s <tenore_s@yahoo.com> wrote:

From: tenore_s <tenore_s@yahoo.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Vegas traffic
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2011, 8:13 PM

According to VPFREE2, the Fiesta Rancho still has:

100.76% FPDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

100.65% JW (FP): 25c(NS)

100.17% DB (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

100.15% LDW (FP): 5c, 10c, 25c

100.07% DDB: 5c, 10c, 25c(NS)

99.80% TB+ (FP): 25c, 50c, $1

99.73% NSUD: 25c, 50c, $1

99.69% SDB (FP): 25c, 50c, $1

99.64% Bdlx (...

But I haven't been there in about a year. If these games are gone, the database needs updating.

Roberto-Tenore

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Scot Krause" <krauseinvegas@...> wrote:

You can pick up Rancho Blvd. on Sahara, just west of I-15, near the Palace

Station, and take it all the way up to the Texas and the Santa Fe. This

avoids the freeway maze. Also, don't forget the Fiesta Rancho, right next to

the Texas Station, it has some great VP.

   Roberto-Tenore

---Fiesta used to have great VP. I don't think so any more. Anyone been

there recently for an inventory check? Had nothing last time I was there a

few months ago.

Scot

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]