I expect that this style of VP will be a complete flop. It'll be gone
within 6 months and we'll never see it again.
Guaranteed Play
"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the
American public." (Henry Mencken)
ยทยทยท
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "davidm20202" <blackjackdavid@...> wrote:
I expect that this style of VP will be a complete flop. It'll be gone
within 6 months and we'll never see it again.
No matter how you slice it, VP games need to be more and more
complicated, due to the availability to figure out the optimum
strategy. Gone are the days of 10/6JOB, and 102% VP games. The
public is just too smart, and computer tools too available and cheap.
Back in the 80s, a computer would cost 5000 dollars, and take 30
minutes to analyze a single hand of JOB.
VP games are quickly becoming like Keno..... by that I mean,
impossible for the average player to fiqure the odds against the
payout in his head.
For example: What are the odds of hitting 5 numbers out of 20 in an 80
number field for a 800 credit payoff? Lets see..... 5 into 20 is 4,
20 into 80 is 4.... that makes it 4x4, or 16 to one!!!! for 800
credits.... what a deal!!!
WRONG.... and this is how they get you.
The people at IGT had to run this game (Guaranteed Play) thru millions
of hands, and document every hand, just to satisfy the regulators at
the Gaming board. But they were the easy ones. All the regulators
were interested in was : "Does it pay 75% or more under Nevada law?"
Anyone want to play a 75% VP game?
Then they had to sell it to the casino operators. What do the casino
operators want? Profits!!! What else??
Casinos know that the public is getting savvy about VP strategy. 9/6
JOB is a solved puzzle. The profit from such games are minor and
barely pay the rental and taxes on the machines when played by an
educated and savvy player.
The industry has had to invent games THAT SEEM to be advantagous to
the player, while being profitable to the casino. For example: Big
Split Poker, Multi-times play, Spin-poker, Opponent poker, Shockwave,
and Double Pay poker. They also have to constantly come out with new
games in order to generate business. These VP machines have a 20 year
life on the average. In order to sell this game to the casinos, IGT
needed to show the buyer the PAR sheet. The PAR sheet would show the
optimum return, and the field return.
The optimum return we are all familiar with..... the field return is
what the casino can expect due to less that optimum play (short coin,
imperfect play, sticky buttons, etc). Casinos do not invest in games
with a 99% field return...... it is not in their best interest.
These are my Undeniable Rules of Video Poker:
1) The more complicated the game, the more complex the optimum
strategy, the lower the payout even with perfect play, and the higher
the loss to the player.
2) There is always someone who will play a machine with a short pay
paytable. Casinos exist due to such people.
3) Play only while it is fun... when it becomes work, quit.
4) Before following the advice of an "expert", find out where his/her
income comes from. If he/she is a paid consultant to the industry,
consider the advice tainted.
5) The more top loaded the paytable, the higher the
volatility/variance, and the greater the bankroll swings.
6) Progressives exist because they are more profitable than standard
paytables.
7) Check the paytable before EVERY session, even if you have played
that game and machine countless times before..... paytables can be
changed in a heartbeat.
IGT, Bally, and Konami have an interest in selling new machines every
year or two, in order to maintain their profits. They are not any
different than the auto manufacturers; New model, new game, new year,
new strategy to learn, new profits for the casino and
manufacturer..... BUT: old game, old machine, strategy solved,
educated players, low profits for casino, no profits for manufacturer.
"Follow the money" as Rush would saw.
My advice on these new games is the same I give for a new model of
car...... wait a year or two and see if it is a lemon or not. By that
time the strategy will be figured out, and the payouts known.