I don't get a chance to drop by VPFree anywhere near as often as I'd like, but I'm told there's been some confusion over just what I'm doing and why I'm tracking one-card draws.
I'm also told that some have thought I'm doing this study in support of Rob Singer. Nothing could be further from the truth, and I'm astounded that anyone could reach that conclusion.
I've been writing about gambling for more than 15 years now, and some of what I do is targeted at a general interest newspaper audience, considerably less sophisticated about games of chance than those who populate this forum. The majority of my work is in magazines aimed at regular players and in business magazines aimed at casino industry professionals, but the weekly column is written to catch the eye of anyone turning the page.
One thing I've learned in all these years is that a large segment of those casual readers believe things are different in real-life games than the math says they should be. I once did a study of pass and don't pass results of 1,000 comeout rolls in craps that came reasonably close to expectation. That made a larger impact on my newspaper readership than all my explanations of how house edges are derived.
Now I see in a major newspaper --- where my column resided for 11 years --- reports of results that run far, far outside expectation. I can't respond by just dismissing it, and I'm not inclined to let it pass. That audience deserves better information, and I'm in the best position to disseminate it.
I began this study confident that given enough trials, we could come very close to mathematical expectation. I appreciate all the help I've received from people who have contacted me after Jean Scott's post. I'm now up to 48,000 one-card draws, and going strong.
When I write this up, I intend to publicize no one. The column will say that I'd seen this study, the results didn't look right, and I wanted to see what would happen if I got a team working on the problem.
At this point, I have enough people working on it. I'm seeking no further help at this time. I just wanted to thank those who are sharing data with me, and clarify the whats and whys for those who might have gotten the wrong idea.
Good luck to all,
John Grochowski
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
I think there are anomalies, if you can figure them out you can adjust your game.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@> wrote:
>
> I just received the following post from John Grochowski, my friend and
> fellow writer, someone who is highly regarded as an expert in gambling
> subjects.
> ----------------------------------------
>
> "Did you see John Brokopp's recent columns on Rob Singer? I about fell off
> my chair when I saw these in my old column space.
>
> http://www.southtownstar.com/entertainment/brokopp/1526200,041609CasinosBrokopp.article
>
> http://www.suntimes.com/entertainment/gaming/1541386,WKP-News-bet24.article
>
> "Singer claims to be charting one-card draws, and he says he's completing
> full houses, flushes and straights five or six times less frequently than he
> should. He also claims to be getting same card, different suit eight times
> more often than he should.
>
> "Anyway, I have a few people working on a multi-player study, with several
> people tracking results of one-card draws for a couple of months. I'll
> report results in my syndicated column, or write it up for Midwest Gaming if
> they're interested. Or both. We'll see if we do or don't replicate his
> extraordinary claims.
>
> "Do you know of anyone who would be interested in participating and feeding
> me some results? To match what Brokopp's column details, we'd need the
> following pieces of
> information:
>
> **Number of hands holding four parts of a flush, and number of flushes
> completed with the one-card draw.
>
> **Number of hand holding four parts of an open-ended straight, and number of
> straights drawn.
>
> **Number of hands holding two pairs, and number of full houses drawn.
>
> **Total number of one-card draws and number of times the replacement card is
> same suit, different denomination than the one-card draw.
>
> "The column doesn't mention straight flushes or royals, which if open-ended,
> fit in both the flush and straight categories.
>
> "If you know of anyone willing to feed me results after sessions through
> about the end of June, I'd appreciate it. I'm trying to get as large a group
> as we can so we can get a fair number of hands within a couple of months.
> Good, accurate data is all I'm after, and let the results fall where they
> may. I don't think it's going to fall anywhere near 48 percent same-card,
> different-suit one-card replacement, but the results can speak for
> themselves."
> --------------------------------
> If you are interested in helping in John's project or have any questions
> about it, do not e-mail me but contact him directly at
> casinoanswerman@
>
> ________________
> Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
> http://queenofcomps.com/
> You can read my blog at
> http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/
>