vpFREE2 Forums

Good day correction

#1

I respectively disagree --- at least in part

For those who play Multi-line games, your short term and long term results are definitely affected by dealt royals, and to a lesser extent on dealt aces and deuces --- depending on the game

If you play 2,000,000 hands lifetime on single line --- you'll get 'about' 50 royals. A large percentage of us will end up between 45-55 royals. (Not hard to figure out more precisely using the binomial theorem --- but I'm using my cellphone and don't have that info at my fingertips)

Playing that many hands on Multi-line games lifetime, you'll get 'about' 3 dealt royals --- but you're an underdog to get exactly 3.

Assuming Ten Play or larger, one or two Dealt royals above or below expectation makes a BIG difference on your lifetime score

Bob

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Sent from my iPhone

#2

Bob,

I’m going to disagree, at least a little. If your dealt royal score is below average AND your total number of royals is below average, your results are going to be below average. But, if your dealt royals are below average and your total royals are about average, your results should be about average.

Let’s go with your example of 2 million dealt hands. If this is on 5 play ( the game in question) you will have played 10 million total hands. Using 40,000 for the royal cycle and 650,000 for the dealt royal cycle, you would average 250 total royals and 3 dealt royals.

I content that if you still get about 250 royals and 10 come from dealt royals or 20 come from dealt royals, your results will be about the same.

We might be at the semantic level but there is a point I want to make and this is just because you come up short on one rare statistic of game, does not mean the game is unfair or that your results will necessarily be bad. It would take a lot of work to run a big enough sample to confirm this, especially since Winpoker doesn’t track dealt royals. I don’t think any other commercial software does either.

Back to what started this discussion, having 2 dealt royals in 5 years doesn’t really tell you much about your gaming results for those 5 years. In the 2 million dealt hand example, you will have played 10,000,000 hands and run 50,000,000 coins through. Each dealt royal is 20,000 coins or 0.04% of your return for the 2,000,000 dealt hand run.

In 2,000,000 deals, here are the probabilities of dealt royals:

P(0) = 4.6%

P(1) = 14.2%

P(2) = 21.8%

P(3)= 22.4%

P(4)= 17.2%

P(5)= 10.6%

P(6)= 5.4%

None of those results would be particularly surprising and each dealt royal is 20,000 coins so you would notice it. But as mentioned above, each dealt royal is 0.04% of your return ( I assumed a 100% payback game to make the math simpler).

Interesting discussion.

#3

I played vp heavily for about ten years doing 1 to 1.5 million hands per year. My guess on dealt royals is somewhere around a dozen and a half. I’ve hit royals every way they can be hit. But the one that took the longest to come to fruition was throwing five cards away and coming up with a royal. It took me ten years to do it. It occurred on a spin poker. And its the only royal I’ve ever made that way.

#4

Mickey wrote: "I played vp heavily for about ten years doing 1 to 1.5 million hands per
year. My guess on dealt royals is somewhere around a dozen and a half. I’ve hit royals every way they can be hit. But the one that took the longest to come to fruition was throwing five cards away and coming up with a royal. It took me ten years to do it. It occurred on a spin poker. And its the only royal I’ve ever made that way. "

The infamous redraw royal, those are even harder to get. The redraw hits used to be fun on multiplays due to a certain feature which has been removed.

#5

I’ve played for more than ten years, every weekend when Kansas City had good video poker, less now that we have to do our play in St. Louis, Tunica and Las Vegas. I’ve had two dealt royals in that time and strangely they both happened about six months apart in a year where we were not playing every weekend. I’ve never had a drawn royal. I know the odds of being dealt a royal are about one every 650,000 hands. I’ve always had trouble working out probability problems. How would you calculate how many hands on average for a drawn royal? I think it would be the probability of being dealt no hold cards times 650,000, but I don’t know how to calculate the probability of being dealt no hold cards.

#6

Re: Odds of making a royal through throwing all five cards away on the flop.

This is not an easy calculation for me because of variables. And I’m not known for trying to come up with proper equations when I have no financial incentive. So I can ball park the thing pretty easy but won’t attempt to zero in.

At 9/6 Jacks the game stats show 84,360 combinations out of 2,598,960 where you will throw away all five cards. Thats a frequency of 30.81 games.

With 47 cards left in the deck there are 1,533,939 possible combinations (47X46X45X44X43/5X4X3X2X1).

The problem from here on out is probably over 50% of the time the five card hand you throw away will have a ten in it. Which means there will be only 3 possible royals remaining in the deck. I’m going to go with 55%.

1,533,939/3 = 511,313
1,533,939/4 = 383,485

So 55% of the time it will be 30.81 X 511,313 = 15,753,553

And 45% of the time it will be 30.81 X 383,485 = 11,815,172

Averaging it together I come up with a frequency of 13,981,282. So you could say 1 in 14 million hands. No wonder it took me so long to hit one.

This is my take on it but I’m just an amateur mathematician. I’ll leave it up to better mathematicians to zero in on the frequency.