I found a photo of my tenplay quarter dealt royal and that was in January 2011, so it's been over five years since the last dealt Royal til yesterday's.
Good day correction
Chances of a dealt royal are about 1 in 649,000. Let’s say you play dollar 5 play. You are playing $25 a pull so you will run $16,225,000 through one 1 dealt royal cycle.
About 5% of the time, you will go 3 cycles without hitting a dealt royal/ That would be about $49 million coin in.
Your post mentioned you played single line and quarters as well. So, on average you would hit the dealt royal sooner but since your records aren’t particularly accurate, it is very tough to determine if your results are reasonable.
I’ve been playing video poker for about 25 years and have had 1 dealt royal. If I had to estimate, I’d say that was 2.5 million dealt hands. One dealt royal in 2.5 million hands is about an 8% chance of occurrence. Not even worth mentioning.
More importantly is how many total royals you have in that period. In 649000 hands you would average about about 16 royals. Does it matter if 15 are drawn and one is dealt ? And on 5 play, if you have 649,000 deals, you have played 3,245,000 hands and would average about 80 royals. Does it matter if 80 are from draws and none are from dealt royals?
The more conditions you put on a particular occurrence, the easier it is to find something unusual. If you tracked the suits of royals, you would probably see variance in the occurrence.
Yeah, the math might be boring or confusing, but it works. Most of the unusual occurrences I read about on this site aren’t so unusual.
greekland johnny wrote: Chances of a dealt royal are about 1 in 649,000.
Not that it affects the gist of your argument at all, but usually the figure is rounded to 650,000 — as it is actually 649,740 for a 52-card deck. Since 649 is MUCH more difficult to memorize than 650, I’m curious as to why you rounded it down that way.
Personally I’ve had between 25 and 30 of these jackpots through the years — I don’t have a “special list” of these so I don’t know the exact number for sure — but I play more than most. I don’t have an exact tally of how many hands I’ve played, so I
have no idea of whether I’ve been luckier or unluckier than average when it comes to these hands. More important, though, for those who play a variety of denominations is whether you get them on “high” or “low” coin-in hands — however that is defined for
you personally.
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Bob,
I remembered the 649 part of the dealt royal number but not the 3 least significant digits. It didn’t really matter for the point I was trying to make but you are correct in that if I rounded, I should have rounded to 1 in 650,000.
The point I was trying to make is that tracking a very rare event and trying to make some determination about your results from it is probably a waste of time. And more importantly, the total number of a particular hand is what is important and not where they came from.
I have had 2,000 hand single line sessions of Double Bonus where I have received more 4 of a kinds from holding a pair than from holding 3 of a kind. What does that tell me about my results or fairness of the game or anything else? Not a whole lot.
Dealt hands on multi line machines are great but getting deuces dealt once on a 5 play deuces wild game in 5 hours counts the same as getting deuces on one line 5 different times in that 5 hours. The dealt royals are noticeable due their rareness and large payout but I don’t think you can draw much of a conclusion about your play based on how many dealt royals you have received. Especially if you don’t track the stats of your sessions.
http://jscott.lvablog.com/2016/11/10/more-promotional-tidbits/
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Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
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