vpFREE2 Forums

Going, going..................gone.

#1

rastisrulz <vpvegas@charter.net> wrote (snip):

Skip & Bob will find
another vocation since there "ain't" any real money in teaching
players to lose and telling them where to find losing machines.

Two points:

1. The prediction of the demise of full pay VP has been going on since 1988 when Lenny Frome published his first book on how to beat certain games. Since then, good games have been appearing and disappearing all over the country. While it's true that there aren't as many 100%+ games around as there were ten years ago, I am always able to find a quarter game that's worth playing. My prediction is that FPVP will be around as long as legal gambling, at least at the quarter level.

2. If you look over the shelves at Gambler's Book Club or Gambler's General Store, you will see hundreds of books on how to beat the horses, craps, keno, and every other casino game. Even though we know that those games can't be beat, the books continue selling. The difference with video poker strategies is that, even if no 100%+ games existed, they still tell you how to exactly figure the payback to pick the best game and how to minimize your losses and have the best chance for a jackpot.

Dan

···

--

Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

#2

I don't know of anyone paying $50 a year to receive that kind of advice,
real time on the internet. I also am not aware of software being sold in a
significant amount by those types of authors. I don't see those people
teaching classes at local casinos. The casinos themselves will teach you
how to play negative expectation games. Anyone can publish a book (RS for
example) but that doesn't mean you can make significant money from the
venture. Of course time will tell if I am right about the demise of full
pay vp. No one hopes I am wrong more than I do.

···

***************
rastisrulz

----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan" <vptimes@lvcm.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 12:31 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Going, going..................gone.

rastisrulz <vpvegas@charter.net> wrote (snip):
>Skip & Bob will find
>another vocation since there "ain't" any real money in teaching
>players to lose and telling them where to find losing machines.

Two points:

1. The prediction of the demise of full pay VP has been going on
since 1988 when Lenny Frome published his first book on how to beat
certain games. Since then, good games have been appearing and
disappearing all over the country. While it's true that there aren't
as many 100%+ games around as there were ten years ago, I am always
able to find a quarter game that's worth playing. My prediction is
that FPVP will be around as long as legal gambling, at least at the
quarter level.

2. If you look over the shelves at Gambler's Book Club or Gambler's
General Store, you will see hundreds of books on how to beat the
horses, craps, keno, and every other casino game. Even though we know
that those games can't be beat, the books continue selling. The
difference with video poker strategies is that, even if no 100%+
games existed, they still tell you how to exactly figure the payback
to pick the best game and how to minimize your losses and have the
best chance for a jackpot.

Dan
--

Dan Paymar, author of the book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and Publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

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#3

<<I don't know of anyone paying $50 a year to receive that kind of advice,
real time on the internet.>>

This was speaking about advice on negative games, I believe - which may be true. But I know personally people who are making thousands and thousands of dollars a year giving baccarat, crap, etc. "lessons" and making small fortunes, or at least a good income, selling useless "systems" for those negative games, plus slots, roulette, keno, the lottery.

However, I don't worry about Frugal 2 - or Frugal 1 - being "outdated" for many years. The worse the VP gets the MORE help people need knowing how to choose the games with the smallest house edge, VP and otherwise, learning to use the slot club system, and especially learning the complex skill of understanding the comp system.

I AM going to add a warning in the VP section just before Frugal 2 goes to the printer, that finding good games is becoming harder - so players are going to have to look harder and work harder and use slot club benefits, comps, drawings, coupons even more than in the past.

By the way, I hear from people all over the country, OUTSIDE OF VEGAS - AC, Indian casinos in CA and other places, MS, the riverboats, that are doing quite well in playing positive VP recreationally by working hard and taking advantage of all the "extras." No, they are not "making a living" - but I honestly really don't care if casinos change things so you can't do that anywhere. I admire those that work hard enough to do that, but I have never encouraged that because I think it burns out many opportunities and worsens the situation for the recreational player;I never wrote anything for the sole purpose of helping that small group.

I believe (although I may be wrong) that good positive VP PLAYS (plays include everything else you add as opposed to positive VP GAMES without anything else) will be available to the recreational player for many years to come, and especially available for those who just want to come to Vegas for a free or cheap vacation and comps have real in-pocket money value.

As for the Vegas local scene, I don't have time for all the good plays I know about if you are willing to "scramble." Because of the abundant bounceback, we mostly play negative games that go positive with the extras, since our time is limited and we like to play dollar and up. The quarter player still has 100% games ALL over town. Quit complaining, get off your duff, stop being so inflexible in your choice of casinos, and you can still make decent money!!!

···

____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
Order autographed book, cassette tape, and the new
   Frugal VP software at http://www.frugalgambler.biz
Read Frugal Fridays at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

I was in San Diego for a conference this weekend and checked out Valley View
Casino. It's very small but has NSUD in several denominations. Cashback is
.5% plus comps and points are doubled on Tuesdays! These were IGT machines
and I felt quite comfortable that I was getting a fair game. I am sure
there are more of these types of opportunities around.

Sylvia

By the way, I hear from people all over the country, OUTSIDE OF VEGAS -

AC, Indian casinos in CA and other places, MS, the riverboats, that are
doing quite well in playing positive VP recreationally by working hard and
taking advantage of all the "extras."

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Sylvia Gosline" <sgosline@e...>
wrote:

I was in San Diego for a conference this weekend and checked out

Valley View

Casino. It's very small but has NSUD in several denominations.

Cashback is

.5% plus comps and points are doubled on Tuesdays! These were IGT

machines

and I felt quite comfortable that I was getting a fair game. I am

sure

there are more of these types of opportunities around.

I was out at Viejas a few months ago and played multi-line .25 NSUD.
It was a double point day but I SWIFTLY lost $1400. The machine
played very suspiciously. I did not hit a single set of deuces (or a
royal, needless to say), in 4300 hands (43,000 outcomes since I was
playing ten-play). Five separate times I held Q1022(x) or a similar
draw and received NO wild royals. One time I held this combination
and received TEN offsuit small cards, for no payback whatsoever!!

I realize that this is too small of a sample size to draw a
conclusion, but given that there is
NO...NONE....ZILCH...ZIPPO...regulation of the machines (or other
gambling) on Indian reservations, you are really taking a chance
playing there. And if you suspected you were being cheated, your
recourse would be...to sue the tribe...in Tribal Court!!!!

Don't be comforted by the fact that these are (or APPEAR to be) IGT
machines, BTW. They could easily be "knock-offs", as such copyright
violations are not illegal on the reservation. Furthermore, it's
ridiculously easy to set up a cheating program on an authentic IGT
machine, especially since the only ones who will ever see the inside
of these machines are...the Indians.

Of course, if you wish to personally atone for two centuries of
pillage and murder of native peoples by the white man, visiting an
Indian casino is a quick and fun way to make a donation to the noble
red people's cause.

#6

I imagine I may well find myself in a minority in this, but I find the
subject heading and a comment or two in this post incredibly racist
and inappropriate.

Tom, I don't know exactly how you view your role as moderator in light
of a couple of repeated comments by you in the last few days, but even
though I expect there was no ill-intent here the phrasing doesn't belong.

- Harry

#7

<<<
I imagine I may well find myself in a minority in this, but I find the
subject heading and a comment or two in this post incredibly racist
and inappropriate.

Tom, I don't know exactly how you view your role as moderator in light
of a couple of repeated comments by you in the last few days, but even
though I expect there was no ill-intent here the phrasing doesn't belong.

I don't see any racism here. Sure, he accuses the Indians of cheating,
but I don't see him saying they cheat BECAUSE they are Indians. The
argument seems to be based on the total lack of regulation. Maybe
he could have made it clear that this argument extends to places like
cruise ships or the VP in South Carolina, but this omission does not
mean he is being racist.

By the way, I agree with the basic premise. Playing VP at ANY
unregulated casino is asking for trouble. I would only play
at one if I had heard reliable reports that the games were honest.
Even then, I would be pretty hesitant.

It is true that the vast majority of unregulated US casinos are
run by the Indians and all of them are unregulated. So, advising
people to avoid them is rationsal advice and hardly racist.

The current situation with Indian gambling is insane. There is
no excuse for the lack of regulation. The lawmakers did a great
dis-service by entering into the kind of agreements that allow
unregulated casinos.

I know, somebody out there is going to say, "But Jim, these are
sovereign nations". That is simply not true. They are subject to
federal and state laws. Their independence is a farce. Sometimes
we have chosen to grant them some power, such as allowing them to
be immune to civil actions, but make no mistake, they are far from
sovereign.

Personally, I would be in favor of allowing them to be truly
autonomous nations. If they choose to stay in the US, they should
be subject to ALL our laws and have no right to run their independent
courtsand so forth. Of course they should also be given a voice in
state and national government. They should probably be treated like
the District of Columbia, though maybe not exactly the same.
  
Finally, I must say that I oppose censorship of the type you suggest.
Is someone has a racist view (and I am not saying this was one) I
don't think censorship is the answer. The best way to address
racism is to address the issue, not to squash the voice of racism.

Any truly sound belief does not need to resort to the PC tactic of
eliminating opposing comments. This is why religions hate heretics.
This is especially true in societies where some religion runs
everything. They cannot defeat the heretics with logic. Not only
that, they cannot tolerate the idea that some people might just
agree with the opposition and cause them to lose their domination
of society. So... they burn heretics at the stake, stone them to
death, or whatever their gruesome punishment de jour happens to be.

No, I'm not equating Harry to them, but I do think this kind of
thinking is dangerous.

QZ

- Harry

#8

"mkl54321 " wrote:

I was out at Viejas a few months ago and played multi-line .25 NSUD.
It was a double point day but I SWIFTLY lost $1400. The machine
played very suspiciously. I did not hit a single set of deuces (or a
royal, needless to say), in 4300 hands (43,000 outcomes since I was
playing ten-play). Five separate times I held Q1022(x) or a similar
draw and received NO wild royals. One time I held this combination
and received TEN offsuit small cards, for no payback whatsoever!!

I realize that this is too small of a sample size to draw a
conclusion, but given that there is
NO...NONE....ZILCH...ZIPPO...regulation of the machines (or other
gambling) on Indian reservations, you are really taking a chance
playing there.

My mileage did vary. The first time I played VP, it was nickel Deuces
Wild (no idea of the paytable) at Santa Ana Star near Albuquerque. I
got 4 deuces twice that evening.

···

--
Pat O'Connell
Take nothing but pictures, Leave nothing but footprints,
Kill nothing but vandals...

#9

Ok, so a few comments directed to the substance of mkl's post:

He notes that he lost $1400 "swiftly", then goes on to note that he
played a base 4300 hands of 10-play. A $1400 loss over that period of
time would not be at all unusual. I don't have hard numbers at hand,
but consider the following: $.25 10-play involves swings that are
around 20% higher than $1 single-line. If he was averaging around 600
hph then we're talking a loss of about $200/hr., a session loss rate
that is not at all uncommon for a game such as $1 JB, and I would
think would be a fairly common experience for a more volatile game
such as $1 NSUD.

If I understand his numbers correctly, his total play was $54K,
providing a loss rate of less than 3%. Forgive me for being a little
envious when I suffered an $1100 loss on about $16K of $.25 3-play on
an UD progressive :).

And I wouldn't be surprised if the probability of not hitting a set of
deuces in his 10-play session was in excess of 25%.

So, bottom line, mkl's observations are probably right on target:

This was too small a hand sample to suggest that the machines may be
"gaffed", and there's little reason to suspect so.

Anytime you play in a non-regulated venue, such as a native american
casino, you bear the risk that the games may be fair. As he notes,
while the availability of an industry make such as IGT provides
greater comfort than unrecognized equipment, lack of oversight still
leaves the door open to tampering.

Finally, if you decide to play in such a venue then you had better
check your skepticism at the door. Otherwise, you're bound to find
that any misfortunte in your play nags away at you and causes you to
suspect you've been a chump. If you can't accept that the games are
fair to begin with then you really are best off if you don't play
there at all.

- Harry

···

"mkl54321 " wrote:
>
> I was out at Viejas a few months ago and played multi-line .25 NSUD.
> It was a double point day but I SWIFTLY lost $1400. The machine
> played very suspiciously. I did not hit a single set of deuces (or a
> royal, needless to say), in 4300 hands (43,000 outcomes since I was
> playing ten-play). Five separate times I held Q1022(x) or a similar
> draw and received NO wild royals. One time I held this combination
> and received TEN offsuit small cards, for no payback whatsoever!!
>
> I realize that this is too small of a sample size to draw a
> conclusion, but given that there is
> NO...NONE....ZILCH...ZIPPO...regulation of the machines (or other
> gambling) on Indian reservations, you are really taking a chance
> playing there.

#10

I am a 100% recreational player with no plans on make a living associated
with the gaming industry. I do plan to retire in the Summerlin area. I
would be interested in knowing where those positive (100%+) video poker
games are located outside of Las Vegas. I recently visited both
Shreveport/Bossier City and Vicksburg and didn't find any games at the 100%+
expected return level. Harrah's Shreveport does have six Bally's Gamemakers
containing quarter 99.95% PE. I haven't been able to crack the Harrah's
card code, so I'm not sure what return anyone can attribute to their slot
club. Harrahs Shreveport used to have a single 10/7 DB machine and 9/6 JOB
but they are now history. The best game I could find in Vicksburg was
single line 9/6 JOB at the dollar level and .25 9/6 JOB triple play. Last I
heard, the best VP games available in Atlantic City were FPPE & 9/6 JOB. I
don't play at the Native American casinos due to the absence of regulatory
agencies in those venues.

I have never claimed there were not many 100%+ VP games in Las Vegas at the
.25 level. My prediction concerned the future of 100%+ return vp in Las
Vegas, which I fear will follow the rest of the country and only be
available with negative expectation pay tables. I believe a number of
recent changes in Las Vegas support my theory that the opportunities to play
FPVP continue to shrink. I am not familiar with anyone who expects this
trend to reverse. I am very happy there are a number of writers producing
books that encourage gaming, especially video poker play. In my experience,
I have found that most players of 100%+ return games don't come close to
playing optimum strategy which results in positive returns for the casinos.
I do believe that the casinos are now intent on eliminating ANY optimum
play, which results in a positive expectation for the smallest minority of
recreational players.

···

***************
rastisrulz

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@lvcm.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 2:41 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Going, going..................gone.

<<I don't know of anyone paying $50 a year to receive that kind of advice,
real time on the internet.>>

By the way, I hear from people all over the country, OUTSIDE OF VEGAS -

AC, Indian casinos in CA and other places, MS, the riverboats, that are
doing quite well in playing positive VP recreationally by working hard and
taking advantage of all the "extras." No, they are not "making a living" -
but I honestly really don't care if casinos change things so you can't do
that anywhere. I admire those that work hard enough to do that, but I have
never encouraged that because I think it burns out many opportunities and
worsens the situation for the recreational player;I never wrote anything for
the sole purpose of helping that small group.

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Video Poker Vegas" <vpvegas@c...>
wrote:

I would be interested in knowing where those positive (100%+) video

poker

games are located outside of Las Vegas. I recently visited both
Shreveport/Bossier City and Vicksburg and didn't find any games at

the 100%+

expected return level.

My guess is that the positive vp available outside of LV is usually
positive not because of the base game but because of a casino running
a promotion that's too good to be true. These circumstances seem to
occur outside of LV more frequently than they do in LV itself. One
for instance. The best vp play at Caesars AC a couple years ago was
9/6 JB in .50, $, and $5 varieties. Their usual cashback of .33 was
enough to make these games almost 100%, and the bounceback checks I
always got after a trip did indeed put them slightly over 100% on a
regular basis. On top of this, Caesars was in the habit of having 5x
points days occasionally. On these days JB was an excellent play.
But the best was their 10x point day once where I had to leave
mid-afternoon to catch a junket plane back home but managed $1100
cashback on that abbreviated day's play. Several acquaintances had
tied up the $5 machines in a hurried alliance of teams so that they
could keep them alive with relatively fresh players for the entire 24
hours of the promo. No telling what their score was!

Another golden opportunity that lasted for well over a year was at the
Sheraton in Tunica where they had .25, 50, and $ 9/6 JB as well as .25
and .50 AA. If memory serves, cashback was .4 on all these with 2x cb
on several promotional days each week. On top of that, you got in
addition to their normal comps up to a $100 a day to use in their very
nicely stocked giftshop. Additionally, they sometimes sent us bonus
bounceback checks, presumably to lure our reluctant fannies to return.
Well, reluctant we weren't. <g> This was the best play we have ever
stumbled into. They would fly us roundtrip from KY to Memphis where
the casino limo would meet our flight on the tarmac at the FBO
quarters. We would walk off the plane into the limo, out the side
gate, and be checked into our suite at the Sheraton about half an hour
later. Then, they forced us to play .50 AA, the devils.

Opportunities such as these exist somewhere all the time. I know of
two vp hustlers who right this minute are plying their trade full-time
outside of LV, which they both left about a year and a half ago. BTW,
if you think that ther lifestyle is attractive, perhaps you'd want to
think again. Consider the realities of suitcase living and it's toll
on your health (what insurance plan?), friendships, family ties, and
so on. Glamorous, it ain't.

Pete

#12

> "mkl54321 " wrote:
> >
> > I was out at Viejas a few months ago and played multi-line .25 NSUD.
> > It was a double point day but I SWIFTLY lost $1400. The machine
> > played very suspiciously. I did not hit a single set of deuces (or a
> > royal, needless to say), in 4300 hands (43,000 outcomes since I was
> > playing ten-play). Five separate times I held Q1022(x) or a similar
> > draw and received NO wild royals. One time I held this combination
> > and received TEN offsuit small cards, for no payback whatsoever!!
> >
> > I realize that this is too small of a sample size to draw a
> > conclusion, but given that there is
> > NO...NONE....ZILCH...ZIPPO...regulation of the machines (or other
> > gambling) on Indian reservations, you are really taking a chance
> > playing there.

I played the .25 NSUD 10 play for a couple of hours. I got one set of
deuces and several wild royals. I still lost several hundred dollars but I
felt my results were well within expected. I realize this does not prove
nor disprove anything just as your results neither prove nor disprove
anything.

Sylvia

#13

the "extras

There are positive plays in the Chicago area. Majestic Star is the
most noteworthy with (estimated) .5% cash back, bounce back, comps,
the occasional promotion and a solid inventory of 99+% VP.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@l...> wrote:

By the way, I hear from people all over the country, OUTSIDE OF
VEGAS - AC, Indian casinos in CA and other places, MS, the
riverboats, that are doing quite well in playing positive VP
recreationally by working hard and taking advantage of all