It's no longer "if" but "when". Full Pay Video Poker will soon be
history. The irony is that Bob Dancer and the others who have made a
living by getting the word out that VP players could actually win
while reaping low roller comps. These are now the very people who are
accelerating the demise of full pay video poker. Because of their
efforts to get the word out (for a nice profit) too many people have
learned to "beat the system". Tracking software developed for the
casinos and embedded in game chips, can now rate players level of
expertise and expected win/loss. The casinos are reacting very
quickly in these difficult economic times. Our former allies are now
working for the "enemy". I hate to admit it, but I really believe
that full pay video poker will soon be history. FPVP has virtually
disappeared from all venues expect the local Nevada markets. The
local casinos are correctly gambling that the only players they are
going to lose are the advantage players who cost them money playing
FPVP. And even then, you can bet they won't lose all the advantage
players. VP is going to be like craps or blackjack. If you learn and
execute optimum strategy and make the right plays, you will be able
to reduce the house edge to around 2%. There will be ZERO 100%+
return games. We might be able to slow down the demise, but we won't
be able to alter the ultimate fate of positive return video poker.
I'll consider it a major victory if 99.95% Pickem survives the cut.
None of us individually or collectively have the ablility to put the
genie back into the bottle. The good news? Video Poker will
probably remain more cost effective than most other hobbies. Even at
the 98% return level its cheaper than golf! Look for a much slower
rate of play as the primary strategy of the future. Slow play is good
strategy for all negative expectation games. Skip & Bob will find
another vocation since there "ain't" any real money in teaching
players to lose and telling them where to find losing machines.
Going, going..................gone.
I agree basically with the post except this last part. Scoblete &
others make money pushing craps which is not a winning game. Too many
other examples exist. You should be right but ....
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rastisrulz <vpvegas@c...>"
<vpvegas@c...> wrote:
···
strategy for all negative expectation games. Skip & Bob will find
another vocation since there "ain't" any real money in teaching
players to lose and telling them where to find losing machines.
While it might be fun to beat our breasts and bemoan our predicted fates, basic business sense tells us this will not happen.
We may see the end of >100% plays at 50 cents and above, but the quarter machines are not likely to go away. The reason is that many people who won't take the time to learn perfect or near-perfect strategy still refuse to play short-pay machines. The experiment now taking place at Suncoast may succeed or fail, but is kind of irrelevant to the rest of the community. The only other casino close to them does not have FP VP.
Even perfect play 25 cent players cost the casinos very little money. Some casino executives are stupid, greedy or both and will cut their own throats to avoid losing money on any machine over any period of time. Most are smarter than that. Fiestas have apparently committed to maintain their current games for the rest of the year, at least. The Palms removes a few banks here and there (apparently to add new "exotic" VP machines that may have low paybacks but may be popular.) Does anyone really think that they will eliminate the DW progressive and their other positive plays?
For the same reason, for all the angst that Orleans and GC would follow Suncoast's lead nothing has changed. They also still say that the changing of qualifications for mailers is experimental and is being reviewed month to month. Orleans' paranoia is not mirrored at their sister property, in fact GC seems to be getting more open, not less.
Bottom line is that we often bring in slot players, often don't play as well as we think we do and (shamefully) often play less-than-positive games ourselves. Let's see what happens by year end.
Bill
···
At 10:37 PM 02/07/2003 +0000, you wrote:
It's no longer "if" but "when". Full Pay Video Poker will soon be
history.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rastisrulz <vpvegas@c...>"
<vpvegas@c...> wrote:
"Skip & Bob will find another vocation since there "ain't" any real
money in teaching players to lose and telling them where to find
losing machines...."
Here's an idea... Skip, Bob, Jeffrey, Anthony, Dan, Jean, Tomski, and
Jazzbo go in partners and buy a casino. It could be called "Advantage
Players Only Casino"...No nickle or slot machines, just
multidenomination(quarters up to $100), multigame(all full pay of
course) video poker and every machine would have Bob's picture on it.
The employees uniforms would be tshirts with pictures of Bob on the
front and Shirley's $400,000 Royal on the back. No alcohol would be
served since no serious player would dream of having a beer while
playing(this would also cut down on overhead costs). The slot club
would return a full one percent and there would be a card of the day
and daily drawing for cash envelopes. The projected losses from the
casino would be offset by tax writeoffs and the owners being able to
continue teaching "newbies" how to play full pay VP and their other
related financial pursuits.
Everbody would be happy. The other casinos would be rid of us "pimple
on the butt" advantage players, the partnership owners could continue
their vocation and we "expert" players would have a place to play...
This of course is all tongue in cheek and I hope everyone will take
it as it was intended, in a humerous tone.....
Tooz
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rastisrulz <vpvegas@c...>"
<vpvegas@c...> wrote:
It's no longer "if" but "when". Full Pay Video Poker will soon be
history.
My opinion is that Full pay will always exist. I predict the death
of cash-back and/or slot club membership for, certain groups of
players, or more likely all video poker players. Groups of players
might include those who play only higher denominations, or players
who play for extended periods of time, etc.
Brad Humelsine
Plenty of people _ I won't name names here _ make money by teaching people how to "win" at negative expectation games. Just flip through the back of Casino Player for ads on sure-fire ways to win at reel slots and roulette.
If I were psychic and knew the future, I would play the numbers in the Mega Millions jackpot. Then I wouldn't care if there were any full-pay VP. 
Yes, full-pay opportunities seem to be drying up, but none of us knows if they will disappear or be resurrected. Let's enjoy it while we can, and we'll each make our own decision based on what's available where we live.
Blessings and royals to all.
Elaine
"Michael Boutot <vegas_iwish@yahoo.com>" <vegas_iwish@yahoo.com> wrote:I agree basically with the post except this last part. Scoblete &
others make money pushing craps which is not a winning game. Too many
other examples exist. You should be right but ....
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rastisrulz <vpvegas@c...>"
<vpvegas@c...> wrote:
strategy for all negative expectation games. Skip & Bob will find
another vocation since there "ain't" any real money in teaching
players to lose and telling them where to find losing machines.
vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE
vpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
···
---------------------------------
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Elaine and all, We just returned from Caesars Palace today and Yesterday
(2/7) they just put in a NEW Bank of (8 I think) Progressive 9/6 JB in
$0.25. Is this the first Nice Improvment in AC and is it DUE to the
emninent opening of the BORGATA??? Just thought you would Like to Know.
Tom & Jo
···
----- Original Message -----
From: "Elaine Rose" <atlanticcityrose@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 11:04 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Going, going..................gone.
Yes, full-pay opportunities seem to be drying up, but none of us knows
if they will disappear or be resurrected. Let's enjoy it while we can, and
we'll each make our own decision based on what's available where we live.
Blessings and royals to all.
Elaine
I sure hope you are right but if I had to bet, I would bet against you. If
this works out at for Suncoast the other COAST properties will follow, and
then the Stations. Then all that will be left is the Palms. Downtown is
already on the brink of losing all good games. Full pay VP is virtually non
existent outside of Nevada. With the bad economy, every penny counts. The
first domino has fallen, the rest will follow.
···
***************
rastisrulz
Help save positive expectation Video Poker until Memorial Day 2002
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vp-heaven/
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Coleman" <billc140@mindspring.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 7:07 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Going, going..................gone (not!).
While it might be fun to beat our breasts and bemoan our predicted fates,
basic business sense tells us this will not happen.
Suncoast management is reporting that they have lowered the payback on their
VP machines prior to rolling out a more generous slot club. I think this is
the wave of the future. Worse paytables and better cashback/points. This
will be good for the house, bad for the player.
···
***************
rastisrulz
----- Original Message -----
From: <tarpon@sportsfishing.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:49 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Going, going..................gone.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rastisrulz <vpvegas@c...>"
<vpvegas@c...> wrote:
> It's no longer "if" but "when". Full Pay Video Poker will soon be
> history.My opinion is that Full pay will always exist. I predict the death
of cash-back and/or slot club membership for, certain groups of
players, or more likely all video poker players. Groups of players
might include those who play only higher denominations, or players
who play for extended periods of time, etc.Brad Humelsine
vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREEvpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.htmlYour use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Video Poker Vegas" <vpvegas@c...>
wrote:
(snip) I think this is the wave of the future. Worse paytables
and better cashback/points. This will be good for the house, bad for
the player.
***************
rastisrulz
This isn't necessarily always the case. Sometimes casinos will think
that they are "protected" if they don't have any VP games over 100%,
and will get so liberal with their cashback that the pendulum swings
WAY back in the players' favor. In fact, most of the best
opportunities in terms of dollars per hour that I know about now, or
did know about (because they no longer exist), were on games like 9/6
Jacks, NSUD, or even Bonus Poker combined with an overly generous
cash back opportunity. To give an example, would you rather play
quarter FPDW with little or no cash back worth about $6 per hour, or
a quarter 9/6 Jacks multi-line machine worth well over $30 per hour
due to high cash back during a promotion? Granted, chasing
promotions around can be hard work, and you have to pick and choose
when and where you play to coincide with promotions, multi-point
days, etc. You might have to get the the casino at odd hours in
order to secure a seat at one of the few good machines. Plus it
helps to know a variety of different games so that you are prepared
when a good opportunity comes up on a game that you would normally
not play. This approach to playing VP is not for everyone. I don't
really like it myself, but I'll make the effort if the $/hr. is
worthwhile and I can afford the game. I would much rather play at a
casino with plenty of dollar FPDW machines with .25% cash back
available 24/7, but I don't think we are going to see much of this
anytime soon.
EE