vpFREE2 Forums

Gamblers Bonus- 4 OAK promotion

#1

Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit all 13
four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this, they
say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on quarters,
or $6,000 on nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the 2,000
hands meter starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or chances of
actually pulling this off. I think my chances are somewhere between
slim and none, but it would be interesting to have a math figure to go
with my analysis. Anyone care to calculate this one?

Here is a link to the promotion:
http://www.gamblersbonus.com/UnitedCoin/ways_to_win.html

For those of you that are not familiar with Gamblers Bonus, this is the
slot club system for 7-11, corner bars, etc. throughout the state of
Nevada.

#2

Quad cycle is 423, any particular quad is 13x423=5499
probability is the inverse of cycle (p=1/c)
to get the 12 other quads in 2000 hands:
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)
combinatorial function is described here:
http://wizardofodds.com/poker
Combin(2000,12)=2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989x1988x1987
/12x11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)=1E-14

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hamstockman" <AB6PQ@...> wrote:

Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit all 13
four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this, they
say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on quarters,
or $6,000 on nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the 2,000
hands meter starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or chances of
actually pulling this off. I think my chances are somewhere between
slim and none, but it would be interesting to have a math figure to go
with my analysis. Anyone care to calculate this one?

Here is a link to the promotion:
http://www.gamblersbonus.com/UnitedCoin/ways_to_win.html

For those of you that are not familiar with Gamblers Bonus, this is the
slot club system for 7-11, corner bars, etc. throughout the state of
Nevada.

#3

So, in english the odds are pretty much never? (1 in
100,000,000,000,000) or (1 in 100 Trillion) ??
-Ed

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Quad cycle is 423, any particular quad is 13x423=5499
probability is the inverse of cycle (p=1/c)
to get the 12 other quads in 2000 hands:
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)
combinatorial function is described here:
http://wizardofodds.com/poker
Combin(2000,12)

=2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989x1988x1987

/12x11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)=1E-14

>
> Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit

all 13

> four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this,

they

> say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on

quarters,

> or $6,000 on nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the

2,000

> hands meter starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or

chances of

> actually pulling this off. I think my chances are somewhere

between

> slim and none, but it would be interesting to have a math figure

to go

> with my analysis. Anyone care to calculate this one?
>
> Here is a link to the promotion:
> http://www.gamblersbonus.com/UnitedCoin/ways_to_win.html
>
> For those of you that are not familiar with Gamblers Bonus, this

is the

> slot club system for 7-11, corner bars, etc. throughout the state

of

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hamstockman" <AB6PQ@> wrote:
> Nevada.
>

#4

actually, that calculation would be for a sequential
for non sequential remove 12 factorial:
(1/5499)^12 x 2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989
=5E-6
A $200,000 jackpot would have ev of $1 (ev=prob x win)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

Quad cycle is 423, any particular quad is 13x423=5499
probability is the inverse of cycle (p=1/c)
to get the 12 other quads in 2000 hands:
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)
combinatorial function is described here:
http://wizardofodds.com/poker

Combin(2000,12)=2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989x1988x1987

/12x11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2
(1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)=1E-14

>
> Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit

all 13

> four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this, they
> say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on quarters,
> or $6,000 on nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the

2,000

> hands meter starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or

chances of

> actually pulling this off. I think my chances are somewhere between
> slim and none, but it would be interesting to have a math figure

to go

> with my analysis. Anyone care to calculate this one?
>
> Here is a link to the promotion:
> http://www.gamblersbonus.com/UnitedCoin/ways_to_win.html
>
> For those of you that are not familiar with Gamblers Bonus, this

is the

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hamstockman" <AB6PQ@> wrote:
> slot club system for 7-11, corner bars, etc. throughout the state of
> Nevada.
>

#5

I should add that's an estimate, but should be pretty close
just for reference, in 2000 hands there is (422/423)^2000=1% chance of
not getting any quad, let alone the other 12

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

actually, that calculation would be for a sequential
for non sequential remove 12 factorial:
(1/5499)^12 x

2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989

=5E-6
A $200,000 jackpot would have ev of $1 (ev=prob x win)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Quad cycle is 423, any particular quad is 13x423=5499
> probability is the inverse of cycle (p=1/c)
> to get the 12 other quads in 2000 hands:
> (1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)
> combinatorial function is described here:
> http://wizardofodds.com/poker
>

Combin(2000,12)=2000x1999x1998x1997x1996x1995x1994x1993x1992x1991x1990x1989x1988x1987

> /12x11x10x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2
> (1/5499)^12 x Combin(2000,12)=1E-14
>
> >
> > Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit
all 13
> > four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this,

they

> > say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on

quarters,

> > or $6,000 on nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the
2,000
> > hands meter starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or
chances of
> > actually pulling this off. I think my chances are somewhere between
> > slim and none, but it would be interesting to have a math figure
to go
> > with my analysis. Anyone care to calculate this one?
> >
> > Here is a link to the promotion:
> > http://www.gamblersbonus.com/UnitedCoin/ways_to_win.html
> >
> > For those of you that are not familiar with Gamblers Bonus, this
is the
> > slot club system for 7-11, corner bars, etc. throughout the

state of

···

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hamstockman" <AB6PQ@> wrote:
> > Nevada.
> >
>

#6

<<Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit all 13
four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this, they say you
will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on quarters, or $6,000 on
nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the 2,000 hands meter
starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or chances of actually pulling
this off. I think my chances are somewhere between slim and none, but it
would be interesting to have a math figure to go with my analysis. Anyone
care to calculate this one?>>

With no strategy changes, the odds of hitting a particular FOAK in the next
hand in 9/6 JOB is 1/5503 (some are more likely than others, so that may
change the result some). The odds of hitting at least one of a particular
FOAK in 1989 trials (the other 11 trials are taken by the other 11 FOAKs)
is:

1-BINOMDIST(0,1989,1/5503,true) = 30.33%

So the odds of hitting all 12 is 30.33% ^ 12 = 6.07E-7 or 1,646,921 to 1.

A $60,000 bonus on a dollar game would be adding 0.73% to the portion of the
game where the clock was running.

Strategy adjustments could take this higher. Setting the payout for FOAK to
60125, which would only be true for one particular FOAK after the other 11
have all been hit, and playing that strategy brings the odds of hitting all
12 down to 528,802 to 1 and makes the added value 2.27%. However, playing
with that strategy brings the payback of 9/6 JOB down to 82%.

Cogno

#7

much better answer, so EV is $60,000 x 6.07E-7 = $0.04

<<Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit

all 13

four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this, they

say you

will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars, $15,000 on quarters, or

$6,000 on

nickels. When you hit your first four of a kind, the 2,000 hands meter
starts. I was trying to figure out the odds, or chances of actually

pulling

this off. I think my chances are somewhere between slim and none, but it
would be interesting to have a math figure to go with my analysis.

Anyone

care to calculate this one?>>

With no strategy changes, the odds of hitting a particular FOAK in

the next

hand in 9/6 JOB is 1/5503 (some are more likely than others, so that may
change the result some). The odds of hitting at least one of a

particular

FOAK in 1989 trials (the other 11 trials are taken by the other 11

FOAKs)

is:

1-BINOMDIST(0,1989,1/5503,true) = 30.33%

So the odds of hitting all 12 is 30.33% ^ 12 = 6.07E-7 or 1,646,921

to 1.

A $60,000 bonus on a dollar game would be adding 0.73% to the

portion of the

game where the clock was running.

Strategy adjustments could take this higher. Setting the payout for

FOAK to

60125, which would only be true for one particular FOAK after the

other 11

have all been hit, and playing that strategy brings the odds of

hitting all

12 down to 528,802 to 1 and makes the added value 2.27%. However,

playing

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

with that strategy brings the payback of 9/6 JOB down to 82%.

Cogno

#8

<<much better answer, so EV is $60,000 x 6.07E-7 = $0.04>>

Yes, I erred when saying:

A $60,000 bonus on a dollar game would be adding 0.73% to the

portion of the

game where the clock was running.

I divided the expected payout by only one $5 bet instead of the expected
number of bets needed to win, which must be close to 2000 or $10,000. So the
promotion adds almost nothing to the EV.

Cogno

#9

Gamblers Bonus has a 4 of a kind bonus going on. You have to hit

all 13

four of a kinds within 2,000 hands. If you are able to do this,

they

say you will receive "up to" $60,000 on dollars>>>>

I wrote down the entire $1 and up bonus schedule tonight from my
account:

2,000 hands $60,000 bonus
5,000 hands $4,000 bonus
8,000 hands $400 bonus
13,000 hands $40 bonus
60,000 hands $40 bonus

Does this add much to the value of the promotion? You also have the
option to at any time reset your primary card and your secondary card
then moves up to the primary card position. Are there any simple
calculations to determine when you should take this action or should
you always continue to play until you get the $40 bonus?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "hamstockman" <AB6PQ@...> wrote:

#10

<<I wrote down the entire $1 and up bonus schedule tonight from my
account:

2,000 hands $60,000 bonus
5,000 hands $4,000 bonus
8,000 hands $400 bonus
13,000 hands $40 bonus
60,000 hands $40 bonus

Does this add much to the value of the promotion?>

I get $61.94 for the total value of all these events, although I don't
understand why 13,000 and 60,000 pay the same.

<< You also have the
option to at any time reset your primary card and your secondary card
then moves up to the primary card position. Are there any simple
calculations to determine when you should take this action or should
you always continue to play until you get the $40 bonus?>>

Does the clock start at zero when you make the secondary card the new
primary card? If so, I'm guessing you should wait as long as possible before
switching.

Cogno

#11

The clock starts on the secondary card as soon as the first 4OK is
marked off on it. I have been fortunate enough to clear my entire
card for $5612.00 on one ocassion. The amazing part was I did it
while play Deuces wild (and only natural 4OK's are marked off). I
tend to only play the Deuces game and I average clearing my around
$50. For those not familiar, the win level starts at $60,000 and
decreases with every hand played (kind of a reverse progressive).
For example, if it took you 2005 hands you may win $59,872.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...>
wrote:

<<I wrote down the entire $1 and up bonus schedule tonight from my
account:

2,000 hands $60,000 bonus
5,000 hands $4,000 bonus
8,000 hands $400 bonus
13,000 hands $40 bonus
60,000 hands $40 bonus

Does this add much to the value of the promotion?>

I get $61.94 for the total value of all these events, although I

don't

understand why 13,000 and 60,000 pay the same.

<< You also have the
option to at any time reset your primary card and your secondary

card

then moves up to the primary card position. Are there any simple
calculations to determine when you should take this action or

should

you always continue to play until you get the $40 bonus?>>

Does the clock start at zero when you make the secondary card the

new

primary card? If so, I'm guessing you should wait as long as

possible before

···

switching.

Cogno

#12

<<The clock starts on the secondary card as soon as the first 4OK is marked
off on it. I have been fortunate enough to clear my entire card for
$5612.00 on one ocassion. The amazing part was I did it while play Deuces
wild (and only natural 4OK's are marked off). I tend to only play the
Deuces game and I average clearing my around $50. For those not familiar,
the win level starts at $60,000 and decreases with every hand played (kind
of a reverse progressive).
For example, if it took you 2005 hands you may win $59,872.>>

If you or someone else can post 100% of the actual rules of this promotion,
I'll see if I can figure it out. Right now it seems like all the
calculations I did are based on bad assumptions.

Cogno

#13

I have been fortunate enough to clear my entire

card for $5612.00 on one ocassion. The amazing part was I did it
while play Deuces wild (and only natural 4OK's are marked off>>>>

I'm glad to hear someone had the opposite experience as me. I played
the Deuces Wild game heavily for around nine months and had cleared
both my primary and secondary card of all quads EXCEPT deuces. I was
becoming very suspicious of the randomness of the game. Eventually I
hit the deuces twice in a month to clear both cards for like $39 each.
On both occasions the game malfunctioned and I had to wait for a route
mechanic to respond and hand pay the bonus.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "drich295" <drichards@...> wrote:

#14

  For those not familiar, the win level starts at $60,000 and

decreases with every hand played (kind of a reverse progressive).
For example, if it took you 2005 hands you may win $59,872.

You can add yet another twist to the calculation by changing
denomination. If you start out playing quarters, the bonus displayed
will be based on the $15k jackpot for all quads in 2000 hands. If you
then start playing dollars, the jackpot displayed will start migrating
toward the $60k figure. Apparently they use some sort of weighting
factor. I guess you could use this to your advantage by moving up in
denomination if you were on pace for completing all the quads ahead of
schedule. I don't know if playing $2 or $5 denomination in this
situation will advance the meter toward the maximum $60k figure faster
then dollars.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "drich295" <drichards@...> wrote: