vpFREE2 Forums

gaffed NCL Epic VP & also the Palms & Palms promotions

Played some single line DDB at Palms tonight and sure enough, lots of
quads. It reconfirmed my feelings that the NCL Epic VP didn't just have bad
pay tables, but was gaffed. I don't usually play single line (play a lot of
3/5 play) but on the Epic that is all I played so I wanted to reconfirm how
a real machine played. Definitely a major difference.

Also I noticed that the Palms is continuing to remove machines. No longer
any machines by the coffee shop/hair salon. Also the "slot emporium"
machines with bonuses are now moved to near Little Buddah.

Palms seems to have lost a major amount of business, and is never nearly as
busy as Gold Coast, just across the street. Little Buddha (my favorite
restaurant and home of the best sushi in town) now is closed Mon. and Tues.
The spa by the hair salon is closed (Drift Spa in the new tower is open).
The little booth promoting tanning is closed. Looks like the tattoo
parlor is now closed. Machines in front of tables are all gone.

If I were the Palms, I would make the buffet a Chinese buffet
Monday-Thursday, with a big advertisement on the sign outside, to attract more of the
nearby Chinatown residents, just as Gold Coast does. Also promote the new
Cathy House section of the coffee shop more. Promote Little Buddah's Asian
Fusion and sushi. Put a big sign outside for Brenden Theater showing the
top movie titles. Promote and add more Asian table games.

Also stop giving the gifts Mon, Wed. Fri, and go with 2x or 3x point
promotions - on the big billboard. I got the booze tonight - too heavy to
carry around! Some of the gifts they have been giving are ridiculous. Maybe
they'd do better with Gift Cards, like some of the other local casinos do?

I remember when the Palms first opened, they had a "Hawaiian buffet" with a
small band one night a week and the lines were huge. Bring it back.

Seems like they have lost a lot of their nightclub-going people. Maybe
they should promote and advertise gaming and eating on the big sign, instead
of bands and singers. Right now I think the sign says Kelly Clarkson in
April, that is pretty far out to advertise and kind of a waste of the big
sign. I heard some people saying the Playboy club is going to close, I have
no idea how true that is, but it would seem like a major blow to bringing in
nightclub-loving people.

The Palms never has "real" slot tournaments like other properties such as
Harrah's, MGM, etc. - you know what I mean, $50,000 in prizes with 3 free
room nights, sent out in mailers to out of towners and good playing locals.
Instead they have those "local" type slot tournaments for a week. How
about doing some of the "real" ones aimed at bringing in longer playing &
bigger players?

In short,it seems to me the Palms marketing really needs an overhall.
While business at other strip casinos seems to have picked up quite a big, the
Palms looks sickly to my eyes.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

misscraps@... wrote:

Played some single line DDB at Palms tonight and sure enough,
lots of quads. It reconfirmed my feelings that the NCL Epic
VP didn't just have bad pay tables, but was gaffed.

Playing single line, and accurately recording the number of hands vs number of quads, how long would you have to play in order to have even a 75% confidence that your results reflect the expectation of the machine, rather than random short-term fluctuation? There must be math experts here who know exactly. Personally, I'd guess it'd take much more than one day.

If not recording the quads and hands played exactly, but relying on feelings, I'm not sure that anyone could ever get a reliable conclusion re whether a machine is a little gaffed.

Stuart
http://stuart-randomthoughts.blogspot.com/

Stuart wrote:

misscraps@... wrote:

Played some single line DDB at Palms tonight and sure enough,
lots of quads. It reconfirmed my feelings that the NCL Epic
VP didn't just have bad pay tables, but was gaffed.

Playing single line, and accurately recording the number of hands vs number of quads, how long would you have to play in order to have even a 75% confidence that your results reflect the expectation of the machine, rather than random short-term fluctuation? There must be math experts here who know exactly. Personally, I'd guess it'd take much more than one day.

If not recording the quads and hands played exactly, but relying on feelings, I'm not sure that anyone could ever get a reliable conclusion re whether a machine is a little gaffed.

Stuart
http://stuart-randomthoughts.blogspot.com/

If it's possible, how long it would take depends on how much it's
gaffed. But I'm not sure there's any way to tell that a machine is
gaffed using trials. How far results deviate from expected, as per a
particular theory, can be measured, but that's not enough. If one's
results deviate from expected, based on the theory that all cards have
an equal chance of occurring, by 8 standard deviations, is that an
indication that the machine is gaffed? How about 3 standard
deviations? 2? Where is the line at which the probability that the
machine is gaffed exceeds 50%? It's still a guess. If being "off" by
8 standard deviations is an indication that the machine is gaffed,
isn't the result of every hand some indication that the machine is
gaffed?

6,000 hands at the Strat this Monday/Tuesday, got one (1) quad.
That's >10 deviations. VP is rigged at this joint as well :slight_smile:

Discussion of "gaffed" VP reminds me of similar threads from back in the day.

And there's always the DVD about Larry Volk's murder:
"...Larry Volk knew better than most the truth about Vegas-that the promise of the big payout is rarely fulfilled. As a programmer for a gaming machine company, he was ordered to rig video poker machines so they would never deliver big-money winnings to the players. And when the authorities discovered the scam, Volk was tapped to be the star witness for the prosecution. But before his court appearance, he was killed by Mob wanna-be acquaintances..."

http://shop.history.com/detail.php?p=66985&SESSID=760ae5708d7df4f5842235236dfc005a&v=history

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Stuart wrote:

>misscraps@ wrote:
>> Played some single line DDB at Palms tonight and sure enough,
>> lots of quads. It reconfirmed my feelings that the NCL Epic
>> VP didn't just have bad pay tables, but was gaffed.
>
>Playing single line, and accurately recording the number of hands vs number of quads, how long would you have to play in order to have even a 75% confidence that your results reflect the expectation of the machine, rather than random short-term fluctuation? There must be math experts here who know exactly. Personally, I'd guess it'd take much more than one day.
>
>If not recording the quads and hands played exactly, but relying on feelings, I'm not sure that anyone could ever get a reliable conclusion re whether a machine is a little gaffed.
>
>Stuart
>http://stuart-randomthoughts.blogspot.com/

If it's possible, how long it would take depends on how much it's
gaffed. But I'm not sure there's any way to tell that a machine is
gaffed using trials. How far results deviate from expected, as per a
particular theory, can be measured, but that's not enough. If one's
results deviate from expected, based on the theory that all cards have
an equal chance of occurring, by 8 standard deviations, is that an
indication that the machine is gaffed? How about 3 standard
deviations? 2? Where is the line at which the probability that the
machine is gaffed exceeds 50%? It's still a guess. If being "off" by
8 standard deviations is an indication that the machine is gaffed,
isn't the result of every hand some indication that the machine is
gaffed?

Dave wrote:

6,000 hands at the Strat this Monday/Tuesday, got one (1) quad.
That's >10 deviations. VP is rigged at this joint as well :slight_smile:

I'm not an expert at standard deviation, but I think the standard
deviation is roughly the square root of the number of cycles played.
You played 13 cycles or so, the square root of which is 3.5 or so, and
you were off by 12 or so, so you were off by a little over 3 standard
deviations.

"Off" by ~$4K too, might add. We were ahead ~$6K for the week's trip from Boston until the geting to Strat. Had over $9K on us so stopped at the bank and deposited $5K. One night stay b4 flight back home after 2 nights at Hilton and 3 nights at Aquarius.

Wild ride. Great time. More traffic on last 4 Jet Blue's from Boston. Maybe things are picking up.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

Dave wrote:

>6,000 hands at the Strat this Monday/Tuesday, got one (1) quad.
>That's >10 deviations. VP is rigged at this joint as well :slight_smile:

I'm not an expert at standard deviation, but I think the standard
deviation is roughly the square root of the number of cycles played.
You played 13 cycles or so, the square root of which is 3.5 or so, and
you were off by 12 or so, so you were off by a little over 3 standard
deviations.