The 10x multiplier does occur once out of 20 multipliers in STP. (For every 40 multipliers, there are nine each of 2x, 3x, 4x and 5x and two each of 8x and 10x. for the claimed average of 4.05x.) Since that is a 10x every 300 dealt hands, the dealt royal is a once in 1,949,220,000 shot.
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----- Original Message -----
From: paladingamingllc
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: 11/25/2007 5:30:32 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: (Fwd) Changes at Venetian
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bjaygold@... wrote:
That would be the case if you got a 10X multiplier once every ten
hands.
Since you only get ANY multiplier every fifteen hands, no way!
If the 10X comes up once each twenty times you get a multiplier,
which I
think is a low estimate, the $10M would be just under 200 million to
one.
We always like to think that if we play "enough," we will approach
the EV of
a game. STP might be an exception, since no one will ever be dealt
anywhere
near 200 million hands. Since the dealt-Royal-with-each-multiplier
cycle is
so long, no one will ever get hit all the possible hands playing
this game.
You'd probably be lucky to get within 1/2 percent of the game EV,
even with a
lifetime of play.
Brian
My bad...I remembered the 10-1 shot for the 10x multiplier, but forgot
it comes every 15 hands on average. In other words, you can expect the
true top line every 150 dealt royals. The actual number is something
approaching 100M to 1 (97.5M). I'm too lazy to compute the exact
number, but this is close enough.
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