Fw: Video Poker in Texas?

[Video_Poker_Vegas]

The Texas State Legislature is about to begin a special session to
address educational spending. One of the proposals that is being
considered is video terminal gaming at the existing race tracks.
This measure is being pushed by a number of influential groups but it
is also opposed by the very strong Texas Bible Thumper lobby. Many
feel that the time has come to keep gaming revenue from fleeing Texas
for Oklahoma and Louisiana. Most experts expect this to be approved
within the next five years. Shreveport/Bossier(population less than
300,000) is a 3 hour drive from the metroplex (population 5.5
million). Native American gaming is one hour to the north (for those
foolish enough to play in unregulated Oklahoma). Texas license plates
dominate the parking lots of the neighboring state casinos. Harrahs
is continuing with its expansion plans in LA. Harrahs has purchased
the upscale Horseshoe in Bossier City and Boyd Gaming has bought
their Shreveport operation (subject to regulatory approval). The new
casino at LA Downs opens at the end of the month and Harrahs plans a
hotel for that venue. Rastis thinks that the competition generate above
average video poker opportunities in both TX &LA.
The majority of players in this area do not appear to use optimum strategy when
playing VP. Thank God most have never heard of Jean Scott, Bob Dancer
and Skip Hughes! I wouldn't expect to see over 100% ER games in the
future but would expect to see the FPPE, NSUD and 9/6 JOB which is
now available in LA remain for the long term with Texas competition.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CoolerPoker/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

----- Original Message -----
From: Rasti$ P. Rulz
To: CoolerPoker2@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, April 18, 2004 12:19 PM
Subject: Video Poker in Texas?

[Dan_Cox]

For those of you who like to continue reading about the truth about
the game, my most recent Gaming Today article is now up on my home
page on www.vptruth.com "Mathematics vs. Winning Video Poker - A
World Apart"

And for those of you who tire of reading or hearing about Frugal this
or Frugal that, Optimal Play this or Optimal Play that, How To Win At
Video Poker, A Guide To This or A Guide To That, it may please you to
know that my next book (the 2nd installment in the 3-part 'Undeniable
Truth' series) "Rambling & Gambling Through Nevada"...'a video poker
player's continuing search for the truth'---will likely be ready in 8
weeks or so. It's a diary of a 1-month journey I took around the
state, going to as many casinos as I could locate, and my complete
experiences both in and out of the casinos are logged and explained.
Much of it of course is what went down as I player video poker--and
how I played it--but who wants to read on and on about just that?
It's why I included nearly every experience from every day and on
every step of the way. And no, I don't tell you how to secretly stuff
a doggie bag with dinner from the lunch buffet, or how to
inconspicuously dig through trash cans in casinos for "treasures".
Nor do I blab about how to save 30cents on a taxi ride between
Arizona Charlies and Sam's Town, or how to sit in airports for 10
hours a day just to see if you can get bumped to get that free ticket
in economy class. This is about real life. Am I trying to build up
sales here? Nope--in fact, I'll do what none of the others have ever
done. I'm going to be giving some away right here. My site and Gaming
today will do the advertising, and I am accepting zero profits from
it's sales. All proceeds will go to the guy who is the genius behind
my world-class website.

RS

[Bill_Velek1]

deadin7 wrote:

snip

... I am accepting zero profits from
it's sales. All proceeds will go to the guy who is the genius behind
my world-class website.

1. Paying your website bill, or making gifts to friends, or whatever it is that you are doing through the sale of your book isn't exactly not profiting. If you're truly not profiting, then why not just give the info away for free, instead of making folks pay for it? There are lots of sites all over the Internet which do that, including Jazbo's website which is fabulous.

2. Question number 1 is a valid question asked in a polite, civil manner; will you be able to show some class and answer it in an equally polite way?

Bill Velek

[Dan_Cox]

1. Paying your website bill, or making gifts to friends, or

whatever it is that you are doing through the sale of your book isn't
exactly not profiting. If you're truly not profiting, then why not
just give the info away for free, instead of making folks pay for
it? There are lots of sites all over the Internet which do that,
including Jazbo's website which is fabulous.

Ans: I think you have me mixed up with Dan Paymar, or the Queen, or
Dancer, or Skip, or Wong....or whomever. I don't charge anyone
anything for any type of information. FYI: Jazbo's site is a waste of
time. It's like taking a trip on LSD through a video poker
mathematics class. The other point is more on the correct side. I pay
my webmaster, but I pay him more because I sell books. I would have
the same site whether I earned Royalties or not.

2. Question number 1 is a valid question asked in a polite, civil

manner; will you be able to show some class and answer it in an

equally polite way?

Ans: You mean again?

[Dan_Cox]

By the way Bill, since you appear to be a newfound fan of mine, my
2nd book will be out by Aug. 1st. Notice how I haven't been blabbing
all over the Internet for nearly a year prior, for everyone who can't
think for themselves to "Order My Book In Advance" and "Be The First
On Your Block To Have This Follow-on Masterpiece"! Too bad it didn't
help.

> 1. Paying your website bill, or making gifts to friends, or
whatever it is that you are doing through the sale of your book

isn't

exactly not profiting. If you're truly not profiting, then why not
just give the info away for free, instead of making folks pay for
it? There are lots of sites all over the Internet which do that,
including Jazbo's website which is fabulous.

Ans: I think you have me mixed up with Dan Paymar, or the Queen,

or

Dancer, or Skip, or Wong....or whomever. I don't charge anyone
anything for any type of information. FYI: Jazbo's site is a waste

of

time. It's like taking a trip on LSD through a video poker
mathematics class. The other point is more on the correct side. I

pay

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:

my webmaster, but I pay him more because I sell books. I would have
the same site whether I earned Royalties or not.
>
2. Question number 1 is a valid question asked in a polite, civil
> manner; will you be able to show some class and answer it in an
equally polite way?

Ans: You mean again?

[Dan_Cox]

Something from CoolerPoker that EVERY vp player should know,
especially YOU!

···

--------------------------------------------------------
What's curious about this message is that while Dancer
encourages "come one,
come all!", he really does NOT want anyone other than himself to show
up.
But because these type players are soooo overcome and sent into
anxiety
attacks by promotions like this that they HAVE to talk and write
about them
wherever & whenever they are able, it can't be helped.

I'll be in LV this weekend. Maybe I'll shoot over to that dump and
check out
all the addicts attracted to this nonsense. These extreme fools won't
only
be battling the machines, their demons, and the smoke....they'll be
fighting
EACH OTHER!!! HAHAHA!!!! It couldn't happen to a better bunch.

From: "bonuspokergod" <bonuspokergod@yahoo.com>

From Dancer's newspaper column
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Jun-18-Fri-
2004/weekly/24113066.html:

**Ever wonder how many players club points you could earn in one
day, assuming you had the time and bankroll? If so, you should
definitely check out the $20,000 Point Challenge taking place at the
Silverton all day Saturday. From 12:01 a.m. through 11:59 p.m.,
whoever earns the most Silverton Players Club points playing on any
machine in the casino will win $10,000. The second place winner will
receive $5,000, third place $2,500, fourth place $1,500 and fifth
place $1,000. Due to deadlines, we were not able to see the exact
rules for this promotion, so we strongly advise you check them out
for various details including time and place of prize

distribution.**

Laughing my ASS off at this one! Bwhahahahahaha!!!

[Harry_Porter]

deadin7 wrote:

FYI: Jazbo's site is a waste of
time. It's like taking a trip on LSD through a video poker
mathematics class.

With all due respect to Jazbo for whom I have great admiration ...

ROFL!

- H.

[Dan_Cox]

Certainly. No one questions his mathematics ability--at least from
what I read. But as far as any of it having ANYTHING to do with
actually helping a video poker player win? Absolutely not! Theories,
math models, risk of ruin calculations.....this baloney might make
for interesting discussion on some boards, but while people are
pounding away at their machines, ask how many of them actually care
about any of that stuff. When playing, that's when the rubber hits
the road. That's where money can be made. That's ALL EVERY player
ever cares about at that point--even those who put out retarded
statements that say "I don't care what happens today, because I know
I'll be OK in the long run".

. "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...> wrote:

···

deadin7 wrote:
> FYI: Jazbo's site is a waste of
> time. It's like taking a trip on LSD through a video poker
> mathematics class.

With all due respect to Jazbo for whom I have great admiration ...
ROFL!
- H.

[Harry_Porter]

deadin7 wrote:

Certainly. No one questions his mathematics ability--at least from
what I read. But as far as any of it having ANYTHING to do with
actually helping a video poker player win? Absolutely not!

As you might expect, I heartily disagree -- although I would stress
the value in jazbo.com is in understanding the behavior of a
particular vp game (as in its peaks and valleys and just how fast it
might drain you pocket or put a huge smile on your face in a given
session or over time).

And in any hunt, the better you understand the beast you're tracking
the less likely you'll become the hunted.

But the website takes a considerable amount of effort to intelligently
digest. A little more hand holding could go a long way to help the
more noviced player. (Hell, for that matter, my eyes crossed more
than a couple times in reading the articles through

- Harry

[Dan_Cox]

That's OK Harry. As you might expect about me, the knowledge of the math is fine inasmuch as it tutors you on how to play basic poker, but it has little to do with how well you fare at the machines. That's almost entirely up to luck---today, tomorrow, anytime you go in to play---and on a time-by-time basis. But that doesn't mean if you're lucky you will win. You must also set goals that allow you to take every advantage of when good fortune shines.

BTW--I find my eyes crossing more at the machines than anywhere else.....

···

Harry Porter <harry.porter@verizon.net> wrote:
As you might expect, I heartily disagree -- although I would stress
the value in jazbo.com is in understanding the behavior of a
particular vp game (as in its peaks and valleys and just how fast it
might drain you pocket or put a huge smile on your face in a given
session or over time).

And in any hunt, the better you understand the beast you're tracking
the less likely you'll become the hunted.

But the website takes a considerable amount of effort to intelligently
digest. A little more hand holding could go a long way to help the
more noviced player. (Hell, for that matter, my eyes crossed more
than a couple times in reading the articles through

- Harry
    
---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail Address AutoComplete - You start. We finish.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[rgmustain]

how to play basic poker, but it has little to do with how well you
fare at the machines. That's almost entirely up to luck---today,
tomorrow, anytime you go in to play---and on a time-by-time basis.

So, you're saying luck is the only factor and that playing 6-5 JOB
vs. 9-6 JOB makes no difference?... I think knowing the different
paybacks of different paytables also would be a factor. This is where
the math comes in. It provides the knowledge to select the better
paying machines, and as a result improve your DAY to DAY results!

Dick

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <deadin7@y...> wrote:

... the knowledge of the math is fine inasmuch as it tutors you on

[Dan_Cox]

Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and hasn't
a thing to do with the math. 9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they are
there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of any
kind. My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
result of good luck to one degree or another. Most hands are common
sense holds, and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult' deals we
get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be mitigated
away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals, and
make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.

RS

So, you're saying luck is the only factor and that playing 6-5 JOB
vs. 9-6 JOB makes no difference?... I think knowing the different
paybacks of different paytables also would be a factor. This is

where

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:

the math comes in. It provides the knowledge to select the better
paying machines, and as a result improve your DAY to DAY results!

Dick

[rgmustain]

Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and

hasn't

a thing to do with the math.

Actually, it has everything to do with math. Even if it is just
simple math that you can compute in your head. Like, 9>6 ... It's
interesting how many gambler's don't even know this.

9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they are
there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of any
kind.

Yes they are. Simple math. Like the quads pay higher, eg 800>125.

My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
result of good luck to one degree or another.

Please define "luck" in a way that can be manipulated to the
gambler's advantage.

Most hands are common
sense holds,

After you do the math in your head. Duh, that's what common sense is
when you apply it to VP.

and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult' deals we
get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be mitigated
away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals, and
make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.

Nothing wrong with setting goals. The one goal every gambler should
have is to limit their loses to a preset goal. Can't think of any
other goal that would make any difference in the long term.

Dick

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:

[mubowor]

Well, since I have nothing to do, let me barge in this conversation
and maybe dabble on the concept of luck.

I would say a girl barely 21 is lucky who went with her parents to
Aruba and went to a VP dollar machine as the first machine she would
ever play in her life, and the first five coins she placed yielded to
her something she did not even know what it was, a Royal. I will
definitely say she was lucky.

Now take the guy who has bought all the strategy cards available, has
practiced in all the softwares on the market and has been going two
years, several times a year, to Las Vegas and played on the best
machines he knows, with the best strategy he knows, and has yet to
hit a Royal. I know cases like that too. I would say this guy is not
what I would call very lucky.

Luck is that. It is not something you can control, but it is
something that is just there, obvious for all to see. Elusive but
real.

To all those who say "my knowledge is luck" I will reply "hogwash".
Tell it to the housemaid in Lowell who a few days ago won 300 million
dollars in Megamillions and declared she will not clean a house
again. Suggest to her that luck is knowledge. She might just smile
and agree, but, my God, wouldn't you be silly by your suggestion?
Luck is obvious, luck is there and, what can I tell you? I hope I'm
lucky next time I go to Las Vegas whether for three days or two
weeks. Luck is better than anything else.

E

> Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and
hasn't
> a thing to do with the math.

Actually, it has everything to do with math. Even if it is just
simple math that you can compute in your head. Like, 9>6 ... It's
interesting how many gambler's don't even know this.

> 9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
> run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they

are

> there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of

any

> kind.

Yes they are. Simple math. Like the quads pay higher, eg 800>125.

> My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
> result of good luck to one degree or another.

Please define "luck" in a way that can be manipulated to the
gambler's advantage.

> Most hands are common
> sense holds,

After you do the math in your head. Duh, that's what common sense

is

when you apply it to VP.

> and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
> the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult' deals

we

> get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be mitigated
> away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals,

and

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:
> make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.
>

Nothing wrong with setting goals. The one goal every gambler should
have is to limit their loses to a preset goal. Can't think of any
other goal that would make any difference in the long term.

Dick

[Dan_Cox]

> Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and
hasn't a thing to do with the math.

Actually, it has everything to do with math. Even if it is just
simple math that you can compute in your head. Like, 9>6 ... It's
interesting how many gambler's don't even know this.

Yes, but 9/6 vs. 8/5 will make no difference 99.9% of the time to all
gamblers who don't sit at machines for 6 hours a day. Misleading them
into believing they will win or even have a better chance of winning
because of that is an error in judgement. Even if they do receive
some extra credits with flushes and full houses, the majority of
players play until it's gone anyway--regardless of paytable. And if
you say it gives them the chance to hit the royal, that would be fine
except for the fact that optimal play people play right through those
wins all the time anyway, thinking that there's a tiny win percentage
awaiting them at the end of the long-term rainbow.

> 9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
> run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they

are there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of
any kind.

Yes they are. Simple math. Like the quads pay higher, eg 800>125.

800>125 means something if you hit it. 9/6 vs. 8/5 does not.

> My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
> result of good luck to one degree or another.

Please define "luck" in a way that can be manipulated to the
gambler's advantage.

If Bob Dancer hits a royal flush or I hit one, it is all luck. The
difference is (and this is assuming he doesn't go on one of those
pathological 'next level up' playing binges after winning) I
immediately go home from the trip and he cannot. His long-term play
philosophy (along with his severe addiction to the machines) won't
let him. Luck is advantageous only to the extent that if one sets
goals and if they attain those goals, they do exactly what they said
they would do before entering the casino doors--and nothing else.
Usually that means quitting for the day.

> Most hands are common sense holds,

After you do the math in your head. Duh, that's what common sense

is when you apply it to VP.

Wrong. Those devoid of the math like Jean Scott for the most part
know what cards to hold on most deals. Duh.

> and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
> the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult' deals

we get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be mitigated

> away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals,

and make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.

>
Nothing wrong with setting goals. The one goal every gambler should
have is to limit their loses to a preset goal. Can't think of any
other goal that would make any difference in the long term.

That's because there IS no long-term. It's just something created out
of a math model that has little use within the game. Just like the
bankroll calculations Paymar gives us or that Jazbo confuses everyone
with, they are something created in the clouds with the intention of
doing nothing more than giving interested players a feel-good
position as they lose.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:

Dick

[Dan_Cox]

As in my play results, good luck almost always shows during a
session. If you choose not to progress or set win goals, when it
shines you may simply have more credits to play with for as long as
you can stay awake. Taking complete advantage of good luck when it
comes along is the only consistent way to win.

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:

Luck is that. It is not something you can control, but it is
something that is just there, obvious for all to see. Elusive but
real.

To all those who say "my knowledge is luck" I will reply "hogwash".
Tell it to the housemaid in Lowell who a few days ago won 300

million

dollars in Megamillions and declared she will not clean a house
again. Suggest to her that luck is knowledge. She might just smile
and agree, but, my God, wouldn't you be silly by your suggestion?
Luck is obvious, luck is there and, what can I tell you? I hope I'm
lucky next time I go to Las Vegas whether for three days or two
weeks. Luck is better than anything else.

E

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...>

wrote:

> > Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and
> hasn't
> > a thing to do with the math.
>
> Actually, it has everything to do with math. Even if it is just
> simple math that you can compute in your head. Like, 9>6 ... It's
> interesting how many gambler's don't even know this.
>
> > 9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
> > run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they
are
> > there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of
any
> > kind.
>
> Yes they are. Simple math. Like the quads pay higher, eg 800>125.
>
> > My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
> > result of good luck to one degree or another.
>
> Please define "luck" in a way that can be manipulated to the
> gambler's advantage.
>
> > Most hands are common
> > sense holds,
>
> After you do the math in your head. Duh, that's what common sense
is
> when you apply it to VP.
>
> > and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
> > the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult'

deals

we
> > get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be

mitigated

> > away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals,
and
> > make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.
> >
>
> Nothing wrong with setting goals. The one goal every gambler

should

···

> --- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:
> have is to limit their loses to a preset goal. Can't think of any
> other goal that would make any difference in the long term.
>
> Dick

[rgmustain]

> > Selecting the better paying machines is basic common sense and
> hasn't a thing to do with the math.
>
> Actually, it has everything to do with math. Even if it is just
> simple math that you can compute in your head. Like, 9>6 ... It's
> interesting how many gambler's don't even know this.

Yes, but 9/6 vs. 8/5 will make no difference 99.9% of the time to

all

gamblers who don't sit at machines for 6 hours a day. Misleading

them

into believing they will win or even have a better chance of

winning

because of that is an error in judgement. Even if they do receive
some extra credits with flushes and full houses, the majority of
players play until it's gone anyway--regardless of paytable. And if
you say it gives them the chance to hit the royal, that would be

fine

except for the fact that optimal play people play right through

those

wins all the time anyway, thinking that there's a tiny win

percentage

awaiting them at the end of the long-term rainbow.

Lets say 2 hours provides approximately 10 full houses and 10 flushes
in the my JOB example (9/6 vs. 6/5). Betting 5 coins would yield
10*5*3 + 10*5*1 = 200 extra coins. Now this is just in two hours. How
is this misleading? To assert it would not make a difference 99.9% of
the time would be completely misleading.

>
> > 9-6 vs. 6-5 are numbers, yes, and if I
> > run into those differences in DDB I make adjustments, but they
are there solely to hit quads and are not based on calculations of
any kind.
>
> Yes they are. Simple math. Like the quads pay higher, eg 800>125.

800>125 means something if you hit it. 9/6 vs. 8/5 does not.

Even in 9/6 vs. 8/5 JOB the difference is still 100 coins. Not
insignificant in a two hours stint.

>
> > My philosophy on the game is that every winning hand is the
> > result of good luck to one degree or another.
>
> Please define "luck" in a way that can be manipulated to the
> gambler's advantage.

If Bob Dancer hits a royal flush or I hit one, it is all luck. The
difference is (and this is assuming he doesn't go on one of those
pathological 'next level up' playing binges after winning) I
immediately go home from the trip and he cannot. His long-term play
philosophy (along with his severe addiction to the machines) won't
let him. Luck is advantageous only to the extent that if one sets
goals and if they attain those goals, they do exactly what they

said

they would do before entering the casino doors--and nothing else.
Usually that means quitting for the day.

First of all you haven't shown me how to create the "luck" in the
first place. Please describe how this is guaranteed so you can quit
for the day ahead.

Second, please show how 3 short two hours sessions is different than
one long 6 hour session.

> > Most hands are common sense holds,
>
> After you do the math in your head. Duh, that's what common sense
is when you apply it to VP.

Wrong. Those devoid of the math like Jean Scott for the most part
know what cards to hold on most deals. Duh.

If not math then what? What's your definition of common sense that
will lead a player to making correct holds and selecting the better
machines?

>
> > and if you're lucky you get a draw that wins or betters
> > the winning deal. The relatively few so-called 'difficult'

deals

we get that present a mathematical challenge can easily be

mitigated

> > away from the math and into winners if you have pre-set goals,
and make your holds with attaining those goals in mind every time.
> >
> Nothing wrong with setting goals. The one goal every gambler

should

> have is to limit their loses to a preset goal. Can't think of any
> other goal that would make any difference in the long term.

That's because there IS no long-term. It's just something created

out

of a math model that has little use within the game. Just like the
bankroll calculations Paymar gives us or that Jazbo confuses

everyone

with, they are something created in the clouds with the intention

of

doing nothing more than giving interested players a feel-good
position as they lose.

Now you've really gone off the deep end. The math models that suggest
there IS long term results is the same math used by EVERY SINGLE
fortune 500 company in the world to do market forecasting, etc. Are
you suggesting the math they use is wrong and the entire world
economic system is flawed?

Dick

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:

> --- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:

[rgmustain]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:

Well, since I have nothing to do, let me barge in this conversation
and maybe dabble on the concept of luck.

I would say a girl barely 21 is lucky who went with her parents to
Aruba and went to a VP dollar machine as the first machine she

would

ever play in her life, and the first five coins she placed yielded

to

her something she did not even know what it was, a Royal. I will
definitely say she was lucky.

Actually, I've seen situations like this where one might argue
whether she was lucky or not. I've seen many cases where a person
wins (gets "lucky") their first time (or often several times)
gambling only to turn around and lose it all and more looking for the
next big winner.

Now take the guy who has bought all the strategy cards available,

has

practiced in all the softwares on the market and has been going two
years, several times a year, to Las Vegas and played on the best
machines he knows, with the best strategy he knows, and has yet to
hit a Royal. I know cases like that too. I would say this guy is

not

what I would call very lucky.

This would be a closer description of myself. When I first started
using expert play strategy I went 6 months without a RF (over 200K
hands) and lost over 6K playing .25 machines with paybacks over
100%. ...

Luck is that. It is not something you can control, but it is
something that is just there, obvious for all to see. Elusive but
real.

To all those who say "my knowledge is luck" I will reply "hogwash".
Tell it to the housemaid in Lowell who a few days ago won 300

million

dollars in Megamillions and declared she will not clean a house
again. Suggest to her that luck is knowledge. She might just smile
and agree, but, my God, wouldn't you be silly by your suggestion?

From a statisical point of view someone had to win eventually.
Nothing lucky about that.

I think the lottery is a poor example of "my knowledge is luck".
That's why I don't play. However, if I was a multi-billionaire and
could find a way to submit millions of lottery tickets then I could
use "my knowledge" to play only when the game was positive. I would
expect to be "lucky" enough to get ahead in the long term.

Luck is obvious, luck is there and, what can I tell you? I hope I'm
lucky next time I go to Las Vegas whether for three days or two
weeks. Luck is better than anything else.

E

I wish you the best of luck on your next trip also.

Dick

[mubowor]

I believe luck is the most crucial factor in gambling, so I thank you
for your good wishes.

Information and strategies are important and we all use them. The
housemaid in Lowell I would say used a strategy in life that gave her
grandchildren on whom to spend the money won, and neighbors that like
her and don't want her to move. I'd say that was a good life
strategy. Also, it provided her with a sufficient bankroll to
purchase the Megamillion ticket that won 300 millions, I'd say that
was very smart money management.

I don't see why you put on opposite sides the concepts of statistics
and luck. I rather view it differently; it would seem that statistics
reveal luck.

Take the lifetime results poll on vpFREE. We know everyone who reads
the vpFREE Internet site is someone knowledgeable in Video Poker.
A 'flighty' gambler like that tourist that has some credits on a VP
machine and turns to you asking what to do and does not even know
what a poker hand is, is not the typical vpFREE reader; but a tyical
vpFREE reader is someone who knows and plays often games such as
FPDW, 10/6 DDB, 10/7 DB, etc. The statistics of the lifetime results
are revealing. More people have positive results than negative ones,
but not too many more. One does expect those statistical results
since all of the people answering the poll, I assume, are playing all
those positive games. So who are the people with the positive
results? The lucky ones. Who are the people with the negative
results? The unlucky ones. For me, statistics and luck go hand in
hand. There does not seem to be anything fixed and eternal about
luck. An individual on the negative part of the poll might win a
Royal on a $100 machine and all of a sudden find himself on the very
positive part of the poll. That means 'he got lucky'.

As for strategies and systems, there's lots of them, some better some
worse. In the very, very long term we shall all be dead, so a
gambling strategy for that very, very long term is nor really too
useful. There are very bad strategies that can give you a high
probability to make you lose your life savings in an evening (but a
strategy like this might be the right one for a wife trying to get
even with a husband and squander all his money, for example); there
are conservative strategies that will have you playing with a
fraction of your income all your life. Whatever floats anybody's boat.

Good luck!

E

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:

From a statisical point of view someone had to win eventually.
Nothing lucky about that.

I wish you the best of luck on your next trip also.

Dick

[Dan_Cox]

Lets say 2 hours provides approximately 10 full houses and 10

flushes in the my JOB example (9/6 vs. 6/5). Betting 5 coins would
yield 10*5*3 + 10*5*1 = 200 extra coins. Now this is just in two
hours. How is this misleading? To assert it would not make a
difference 99.9% of the time would be completely misleading.

It's misleading because it looks great on paper, but when the optimal-
play-only player gets those extra credits, I've already told you what
happens - and you already know that. If you put 500 credits into a
machine and lose it, what do you think you'll do with a remaining
200? If you play for the points instead of for the money (as the
casino wants you to do) then you're doing the right thing. That's why
the numbers involved with expert play on positive machines always
LOOK good here, but if everyone incorporated human factors into the
equations as I always do, it would appear totally different.
  

> 800>125 means something if you hit it. 9/6 vs. 8/5 does not.
Even in 9/6 vs. 8/5 JOB the difference is still 100 coins. Not
insignificant in a two hours stint.

Same thing.

First of all you haven't shown me how to create the "luck" in the
first place. Please describe how this is guaranteed so you can quit
for the day ahead.

Luck isn't created--it happens. Good and bad, but most of it is bad,
of course. I use the same numbers game you do when I play, only I
maximize my chances of hitting quads as I progress both
denominationally as well as in volatility. Nothing is guaranteed, but
the numbers say that as you play into the progression, it's likely a
quad will be hit sometime--and maybe a special quad or bigger along
the way. It works great for me, and that's why I firmly believe in
it. But unlike expert-play, it requires solid determination,
discipline, and bankroll. If you waiver even a small bit, the
expectation switches over to the casino taking your money.

Second, please show how 3 short two hours sessions is different

than one long 6 hour session.

That's easy. For the way you play, there's no difference at all. With
my Play Strategies, cashing out as winners arise in the progressions
means profits. But I don't relate my strategies to time. They only
relate to the goals and the profits.
  

If not math then what? What's your definition of common sense that
will lead a player to making correct holds and selecting the better
machines?

Because just about everything in the world is based on math, and the
fact that I don't like to be nebulous as you are in this respect,
that's not easy to answer. Selecting the better machines is selecting
the higher pay numbers, but that alone won't do anything for me. I
regularly play 7/5 BP at bars over 8/5 on the floors because I like
to watch the game, and more multi-denomination games are at bars. I
don't use any math here--just human factors. That's part of what
common sense is. For selecting holds, certainly math has something to
do with it in our early-on process of understanding cards, but the
common sense hold is not always the mathematically correct one.

Now you've really gone off the deep end. The math models that

suggest there IS long term results is the same math used by EVERY
SINGLE fortune 500 company in the world to do market forecasting,
etc. Are you suggesting the math they use is wrong and the entire
world economic system is flawed?

Again, as I've said so many times, if you look at video poker as some
kind of business model, you're falling directly into the hands of the
casinos--who really do look at their business in those terms.
Gambling is not the same as what you paint it out to be here. No
matter what system anyone uses or how much money they have, the
advantage is always on the side of the casino. BJ counters and the
positive players of the gambling world scare no one. why do you think
so many casinos have promotions adding to that 'theoretical
advantage' all the time--almost never-ending? The small potato money
is good, but they know so-called advantage players will flock to
their casino, and tons of profits will be raked in from them.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote: