vpFREE2 Forums

FW: THE MOTHER OF STREAKS

#1

Don't worry i've played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years and never hit a Royal.

···

----- Original Message -----
Subject: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS
Date: Sat, 10 May 2008 13:49:22
From: BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM <BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM>
To: <acvpp@yahoogroups.com>
CC: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>

            Howdy

Misery loves company. If you have had similar luck. please share. In my last 240,000 hands approximate, I have hit two Royals. I am 0 for 93 in four to a Royal attempts. This nightmare has cost me 85 percent of my bandroll high.

Poor Ole' Grumpy

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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#2

WOLVES wrote:

Don't worry i've played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years and
never hit a Royal.

I don't know if I would go as far as to say "don't worry" -- the
implicit drain is undeniable. But I suspect you mean to suggest that
such an occurrance isn't out of the ordinary.

Your particular drought has a 23% likelihood. Over the course of a
million hands played look to endure it more than once.

- Harry

#3

JohnnyZee has privately flagged an slip up.

In breaking away from something for a "hit and run" reply, I dropped a
decimal in reading a probability (and not taking the time to run it
through my mind for reasonableness ;). Wolves' drought has a 2.3%
likelihood for any given 150,000 hands, not 23%.

A one out of 50 event doesn't make it rare, but it's certainly
exceptional.

(Given my own failure to connect on some 150K hands played since Jan
15, 23% was right in line with my perception of reality -- when it
comes to vp, experience largely skews me to the dark side :wink:

- H.

Harry Porter wrote:

···

WOLVES wrote:
> Don't worry i've played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years
> and never hit a Royal.

I don't know if I would go as far as to say "don't worry" -- the
implicit drain is undeniable. But I suspect you mean to suggest that
such an occurrance isn't out of the ordinary.

Your particular drought has a 23% likelihood. Over the course of a
million hands played look to endure it more than once.

- Harry

#4

Wow.

Wow.

Harry Porter AND Bob Dancer, highly inaccurate, both in the same week.

The sky is falling.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
Sent: Saturday, May 10, 2008 8:03 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: FW: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS

JohnnyZee has privately flagged an slip up.

In breaking away from something for a "hit and run" reply, I dropped a
decimal in reading a probability (and not taking the time to run it
through my mind for reasonableness ;). Wolves' drought has a 2.3%
likelihood for any given 150,000 hands, not 23%.

A one out of 50 event doesn't make it rare, but it's certainly
exceptional.

(Given my own failure to connect on some 150K hands played since Jan
15, 23% was right in line with my perception of reality -- when it
comes to vp, experience largely skews me to the dark side :wink:

- H.

Harry Porter wrote:

WOLVES wrote:
> Don't worry i've played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years
> and never hit a Royal.

I don't know if I would go as far as to say "don't worry" -- the
implicit drain is undeniable. But I suspect you mean to suggest that
such an occurrance isn't out of the ordinary.

Your particular drought has a 23% likelihood. Over the course of a
million hands played look to endure it more than once.

- Harry

------------------------------------

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#5

Cogno wrote: Harry Porter AND Bob Dancer, highly inaccurate, both in the
same week. The sky is falling.

Hmm. Merely "highly inaccurate?" I thought the catch phrase with Cogno
was
"Inaccurate. Highly inaccurate." Somehow, he found a way to omit one
well-deserved "Inaccurate." Perhaps Cogno should be included in the list
of reasons for the sky falling.

Bob Dancer

#6

Actually, Bob, it's "Highly inaccurate. Highly."

And while I'm diatribing, let me be the first to blame YOU for the cut in
MGM-Mirage cashback.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Bob Dancer
Sent: Sunday, May 11, 2008 11:45 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: FW: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS

Cogno wrote: Harry Porter AND Bob Dancer, highly inaccurate, both in the
same week. The sky is falling.

Hmm. Merely "highly inaccurate?" I thought the catch phrase with Cogno
was
"Inaccurate. Highly inaccurate." Somehow, he found a way to omit one
well-deserved "Inaccurate." Perhaps Cogno should be included in the list
of reasons for the sky falling.

Bob Dancer

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#7

Cogno teased me: And while I'm diatribing, let me be the first to blame
YOU for the cut in MGM-Mirage cashback.

That figures. The MGM is just a little bit delayed from Shirley's and my
results in 2001, which was the last time either one of us played there.
Still, there are those who blame me for EVERY video poker cutback, so
why not blame me for this too?

Bob Dancer

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Yes, it's also Mr. Danceer's fault for the national mortgage meltdown and the current world financial situation. lol

···

--- On Mon, 5/12/08, Bob Dancer <bdancer@compdance.com> wrote:

From: Bob Dancer <bdancer@compdance.com>
Subject: RE: FW: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, May 12, 2008, 12:02 AM

Cogno teased me: And while I'm diatribing, let me be the first to blame
YOU for the cut in MGM-Mirage cashback.

That figures. The MGM is just a little bit delayed from Shirley's and my
results in 2001, which was the last time either one of us played there.
Still, there are those who blame me for EVERY video poker cutback, so
why not blame me for this too?

Bob Dancer

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

      ____________________________________________________________________________________
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#9

Suggest you check out the poisson distribution to see what can really happen. Going 2 or 3 cycles without a royal isn't that uncommon nor is getting a few extra royals

WOLVES <alpha_wolf12@yahoo.com> wrote: Don&#39;t worry i&#39;ve played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years and never hit a Royal.

···

----- Original Message -----
Subject: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS
Date: Sat, 10 May 2008 13:49:22
From: BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM <BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM>
To: <acvpp@yahoogroups.com>
CC: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>

Howdy

Misery loves company. If you have had similar luck. please share. In my last 240,000 hands approximate, I have hit two Royals. I am 0 for 93 in four to a Royal attempts. This nightmare has cost me 85 percent of my bandroll high.

Poor Ole' Grumpy

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__________________________________________________________
Be a better friend, newshound, and
know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now. http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR8HDtDypao8Wcj9tAcJ

---------------------------------
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#10

What about going 0-93 with four to a royal? Is that not so?unusual also? Going from a bankroll of?12k to 1.5k playing 9/6 playing near perfect strategy over 250k hands seems like a curse to me...Grumpy

Suggest you check out the poisson distribution to see what can really happen. Going 2 or 3 cycles without a royal isn't that uncommon nor is getting a few extra royals

···

-----Original Message-----
From: pesach kremen <royalflush2222@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Mon, 12 May 2008 5:12 am
Subject: Re: FW: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS

Suggest you check out the poisson distribution to see what can really happen. Going 2 or 3 cycles without a royal isn't that uncommon nor is getting a few extra royals

WOLVES <alpha_wolf12@yahoo.com> wrote: Don&#39;t worry i&#39;ve played about 150,000 hands over the past 4 years and never hit a Royal.

----- Original Message -----
Subject: [vpFREE] THE MOTHER OF STREAKS
Date: Sat, 10 May 2008 13:49:22
From: BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM <BANDSTAND54@AOL.COM>
To: <acvpp@yahoogroups.com>
CC: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>

Howdy

Misery loves company. If you have had similar luck. please share. In my last 240,000 hands approximate, I have hit two Royals. I am 0 for 93 in four to a Royal attempts. This nightmare has cost me 85 percent of my bandroll high.

Poor Ole' Grumpy

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

__________________________________________________________
Be a better friend, newshound, and
know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now. http://mobile.yahoo.com/;_ylt=Ahu06i62sR8HDtDypao8Wcj9tAcJ

---------------------------------
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#11

BANDSTAND54 wrote:

What about going 0-93 with four to a royal?

What's your gut feel, Grump? A less than 1% chance of this happening?
Maybe less than 1 in 1000 (.1%)? Or perhaps as likely 5%?

You express a keen interest in such probabilities -- time for you to
tackle the calculation.

To determine the probability of a given series of events, multiply the
probabilities of each individual event (assumes each event is
independent of the next). When talking a string of "n" misses of an
event (call the event "x"), this calculation take the form of that
event's probability taken to the nth power -- p(x)^n (... i.e. p(x)
multiplied out "n" times).

In this case, when holding 4 cards to the royal, there are 46 cards
out of 47 on the draw that will fail to fill it successfully. The
probability of a 93 draw drought = (46/47)^93 = 13.5% -- happens all
the time in the casino.

- H.

#12

also? Going from a bankroll of?12k to 1.5k playing 9/6 playing near
perfect strategy over 250k hands seems like a curse to me...Grumpy

Statistically about 7 to 1. In terms of video poker statistics, hardly
a longshot.

I was playing quarter 100-play not too long ago, I was playing 80
lines because it kept the tax forms down in a casino where the slot
service was notoriously slow (at least that's the logic), where it
popped up..AQJTs, and then a small spade. Since this was JW2, any
royal would have locked up the machine, but I couldn't even catch a
joker, let alone the Ks in 81 cracks (the first crack, of course, was
for $100K, or the nice consolation prize of $5K if the Wildman showed
up), and in 80 cracks I made a grand total of 9 flushes. I actually
lost money on this hand.

The way I saw it, and I was proven correct, was that I'd catch up on
bigger denom stuff. Which I did.

The moral of the story is when you're chasing 40K to 1 shots (and 44K
if playing DW or JW), the long run is a very long time coming indeed.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BANDSTAND54@... wrote:

What about going 0-93 with four to a royal? Is that not so?unusual

#13

Yeah, it's totally your fault the stock has lost half its market cap
the last 6 months, too. They're not my favorites, either, but that's
due to their supreme arrogance and frequent cluelessness. Boycotting
advertising in Casino Player because you wrote for them and the Fines
wouldn't fire you was just the stupidist thing I ever heard of. It
only took them about a year to realize that they needed CP more than
CP needed them.

Now, Bob, it's always been my opinion that if there weren't so much
infofmation out there, I could make a lot more dough doing this
(although I do ok). You, sir, are information dispenser #1, and take
pride in that. I think it's hilarious when a casino tightens things up
and people bitch about it here, or when they draw roadmaps (yes,
roadmaps) to games, and wonder why they can't get on them anymore.
People underestimate the value of information, particularly how it
pertains to taking money out of a casino. Where I'm going with this is
that you probably deserve your share of the blame for this, although
there are others as well. While I try not to get too personal about
this, it doesn't make it any less annoying. The suits read you too,
you know.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote:

Cogno teased me: And while I'm diatribing, let me be the first to blame
YOU for the cut in MGM-Mirage cashback.

That figures. The MGM is just a little bit delayed from Shirley's and my
results in 2001, which was the last time either one of us played there.
Still, there are those who blame me for EVERY video poker cutback, so
why not blame me for this too?

#14

A friend of mine wanted me to talk to his friend (who is fond of playing deuces wild) to help
improve her playing skills.

I explained about only playing at full pay machines and also encouraged her to buy Bob
Dancer's software and card on learning how to play accurately.

I watched her play and her most common mistake was not going for the inside straight and
also going for a royal with only two cards to a royal among others. I explained this to her but
as Bob Dancer quoted someone, "Trying to teach a pig to sing is only going to irritate the
pig."

She only listened to me with one (or less) ear and continued to play at grocery stores, strip,
etc where it was non full pay. In two months she has hit 5 royals and she does not play that
frequently since she travels out of town.

Guess what she thinks of my advice.

#15

I can't let this stand. You've butchered one of my all-time favorite
aphorisms by leaving out the most important part.

"Never try to teach a pig to read. It *wastes your time *and annoys the
pig."

···

On Mon, May 12, 2008 at 10:59 AM, George Lee <glee4ever@yahoo.com> wrote:

  as Bob Dancer quoted someone, "Trying to teach a pig to sing is only
going to irritate the
pig."

--
Jay Fenster
Open Road Publishing
* * *
Author, Open Road's Best of Las Vegas

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]