edifess@hotmail.com wrote ....
Assuming one machine had a better paytable than another, I would of
course prefer it. But, it is tremendously overstated in the short term
what that extra percent or two gets you. And tourists are short term.
__ The extra percent or 2 gets you $5 or $10 an hour playing single line
__ quarters at a leisurely 400 hands per hour. Higher denom or
multiline
__ makes that number much, much higher.
__ Let's say you have two friends who want to wager on a coin flip.
__ Friend A will pay you $1 when you are correct and take $1 when you
__ lose. Friend B will pay you $1 when you win but will take $1.01 when
__ lose. Over a couple hundred coin flips, you might do better with
Friend
__ B but I would still prefer Friend A over Friend B. Actually I would
__ Friend C who pays $1.005 for winners and picks up my hotel room : ).
I think the mathematical "wizards" and such lead you to believe
that "full-pay" machines give you a much bigger advantage than they
actually do - in the short term.
__ On almost all video poker games, a short pay machine is shorted on
__ medium frequency hands. Most of the time the royal flush or big
bonus
__ quad hands aren't shorted. So the big hands will happen about as
often
__ on a short pay machine as on a full pay machine.
The 9/5 DDB machines at the Mirage gave me or allowed me to draw the 4
aces with the kicker many times while I was there. That beats going to
the Wynn and losing on the "better" 10/6 machine where I'm "supposed"
to win.
__ This last paragraph sounds like edifess believes a 9/5 DDB will have
__ more chances for aces with a kicker that the 10/6 version. If the
games
__ are fair, that is simply not true.
__ You will get full house or flush about every 45 hands in DDB.
__ Giving up $1.25 every 45 hands is going to add up to quite a bit.
Again
__ using 400 hands per hour, that is about $13 / hour.
__ If you play 2 10/6 DDB machines at Wynn, one may lose money over a 4
hour
__ run and one may win money over the same hours. Does this mean the
winning
__ machine is 'better'. If you believe the machines are fair, it
doesn't matter
__ which of the 2 machines you play. If you don't believe the machines
are fair,
__ then that is an entirely different discussion.
Trust me - I've lost enough at the Palms on many full-pays to realize
that skill is important, as is survival, but luck is even more so.
__ Why do you think you will be more 'lucky' on a short pay machine
instead
__ of a full pay machine?
Any of you locals who have read all the books, played the strategies
and lost plenty ready to finally fess up?
__ You can definitely lose money on full pay machines. My wife recently
played
__ 3 hours of FP Deuces Wild as Sunset Station and lost $500. This is
about as
__ bad as it can get at that game. Guess what , though. If the game
was one of
__ those fake full pay machines where they short the Wild Royal Flush
and the 5 of
__ a kinds, she would have lost even more.
__ It is true that getting lucky ( hitting the big hands) will make your
session a
__ winner. You can call that luck. Why not play the best machine
available? That
__ way, when you get lucky, you win even more and when you get unlucky,
you lose
__ even less.
__ This reminds me of people who lose 3 match play coupons in a row and
then won't
__ play them anymore. If they lose 3 in a row without a matchplay, it
doesn't surprise
__ them but somehow losing with matchplay shouldn't happen. The number
of hands you
__ win and lose doesn't change, just the amount you win.
···
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