vpFREE2 Forums

Frequency of Dealt Royals ... and the perception of "gaffene...

#1

No need. I posted the concept of "shorting" the common hands years ago, as a
method of gaffing a VP machine.

For example, at 9/6 JOB, if someone were to gaff the frequency so you get
just 5% fewer High Pairs, the game return is reduced by 1.07%! And, of course,
virtually no one will track the frequency of High Pairs, so the gaffing would
be both very subtle, and highly unlikely to be detected.

Brian

···

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In a message dated 11/9/2007 1:39:57 PM Pacific Standard Time,
harry.porter@verizon.net writes:

One thing I'll discuss later is that I find it VERY
unlikely that you would have cause to test RF occurrence as a
gaffeness measure ... I even find little or no reason to look at
quads. The focus will be on the very short cycle hands -- trips/FH,
S/F, etc. This makes assessment much more practical than most would
suspect. I'll explain further later.

************************************** See what's new at http://www.aol.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

bjaygold wrote:

No need. I posted the concept of "shorting" the common hands years
ago, as a method of gaffing a VP machine.

For example, at 9/6 JOB, if someone were to gaff the frequency so you
get just 5% fewer High Pairs, the game return is reduced by 1.07%!
And, of course, virtually no one will track the frequency of High
Pairs, so the gaffing would be both very subtle, and highly unlikely
to be detected.

Right on the first count. I have some question on the second when you
extend the statement to a consideration of how gaffing might actually
be expected to show up in a casino.

Any manager motivated to gaffe a vp machine would be unlikely to
settle for even 3%. They're going to be looking for slot equivalent
returns for their trouble and risk -- I see a gaffe of 5%+ on a 99% ER
paytable machine. Now, that's likely going to call for spreading the
EV shortfall over a number of hand types so as to be marginally
"subtle".

However, the impact on overall play EV will be unmistakable over
fairly limited play. And even when the return shortfall is disbursed
among several hand types, a 5% deviation from expectation in
underlying machine operation is going to lend itself to some
reasonable statistical detection over the course of a managable length
of play.

- Harry