Could anyone tell me how much it would impact the expected return of
FPDW to hold all the King high (even with penalty) two-to-a-
Royal hands (when you have no deuces) instead of throwing all five
cards? How about if you also hold all the Ace high two-to-a-Royal's?
Thanks,
JD
At .25 denoms: The King-high royal holds cost about 0.5 cents with one
penalty, and a little over 1 cent with two penalties.
The Ace-high two card royal holds, however, cost around 4-6 cents
(depending on penalties).
So you could easily modify the proper strategy to hold all K-x 2RF,
ignoring penalties, with little cost to EV (about a dime an hour loss
as opposed to optimal strategy), but you can't do so with the A-x 2RFs
(which occur 33% more often than the Kx 2RfS); to make this error
would cost over 60 cents/hour, and you can't afford that when your
profit with best play is only $7/hr or so.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "keyen54739" <jimjenday@i...> wrote:
Could anyone tell me how much it would impact the expected return of
FPDW to hold all the King high (even with penalty) two-to-a-
Royal hands (when you have no deuces) instead of throwing all five
cards? How about if you also hold all the Ace high two-to-a-Royal's?
keyen54739 wrote:
Could anyone tell me how much it would impact the expected return of
FPDW to hold all the King high (even with penalty) two-to-a-
Royal hands (when you have no deuces) instead of throwing all five
cards? How about if you also hold all the Ace high two-to-a-Royal's?
To add to "rock"s post, Frugal VP software will analyze the ER cost of
a Kx RF hold in about 5 seconds. As rock suggests, the cost is
minimal -- .011%.
An A-hi hold isn't part of the FVP strategy table, so it's a little
more difficult to analyze. Rock's numbers are on target so it's
safe to call the cost about .1%.
- Harry
I wrote:
Frugal VP software will analyze the ER cost of
a Kx RF hold in about 5 seconds. As rock suggests, the cost is
minimal -- .011%.
For the sake of completeness, I'll note that the base FVP strategy is
a penalty-free one - i.e., it doesn't provide for a Kx RF hold even in
absence of a penalty.
The cost of holding Kx RF with a penalty vs. optimal FPDW strategy is
around .016%.
- H.
One more addition here - as a general rule, you should never give up
EV to have a shot at a higher-paying hand. In fact, just the opposite
is true - you may occasionally wish to give up a small amount of EV
to DEcrease your chance of a higher-paying hand.
The reason is that if two alternatives have similar EVs and one gives
you a shot at a royal or 4K or something else good while the other
doesn't, then it's volatility will be substantially higher. And the
general rule here is that you should not accept higher volatility
without a higher EV (because a given betting unit uses a larger
proportion of your bankroll if it has higher volatility, thus
decreasing the number of bets you can make and thus reducing the
overall return on your bankroll).
Now, keep in mind, all of this assumes your only objective is maximum
return and doesn't consider "fun" - you can break all these rules if
you just want to have fun. Which brings us back to the original
question that was posted - can you expand a little on why you would
want to increase your chance at getting a royal? If it's just because
having a shot at a royal makes it more fun, then the way I would
interpret the numbers given here is that it won't cost you very much,
so go ahead and do it if you can stand the lost EV.
Also, it's possible you may be thinking in terms of a progressive
royal flush payout, although if so you should have stated that in the
question. That changes the math and the theoretical best answer, as
I'm sure Harry and rockofjello would agree. With a progressive royal,
there does indeed come a point where you should hold those hands, and
it comes fairly quickly too because the give-up is so small. With the
progressive at 120-130% you should always hold the penalty King-high
and around 160% you should start holding the Ace-high.
By the way, the exact equivalence point between tossing all five and
holding one of these hands depends on exactly what you discard. As in
jacks, you can add about 0.005% of bet to the value of 2-card-royals
for each 10% increase in the RF jackpot. But the discard-all option
you are comparing to has different values in DW, depending upon how
many high cards you discard. For example, discarding 3s4d6h7c9d and
redrawing has an expected value of 33.1% of your initial bet, while
discarding 2 potential RF cards as in 3s5h8dTcKh has a value of
32.8%. If you're really into the nitty-gritty of this decision, you
want to have more than one value on your strategy card for "nada"
hands.
when a prog. royal is up around 1100 these single penalty King Xs
royal draws are +ev
timmer
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333"
<rockofjello333@y...> wrote:
> Could anyone tell me how much it would impact the expected
return of
> FPDW to hold all the King high (even with penalty) two-to-a-
> Royal hands (when you have no deuces) instead of throwing all
five
> cards? How about if you also hold all the Ace high two-to-a-
Royal's?
At .25 denoms: The King-high royal holds cost about 0.5 cents with
one
penalty, and a little over 1 cent with two penalties.
The Ace-high two card royal holds, however, cost around 4-6 cents
(depending on penalties).So you could easily modify the proper strategy to hold all K-x 2RF,
ignoring penalties, with little cost to EV (about a dime an hour
loss
as opposed to optimal strategy), but you can't do so with the A-x
2RFs
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "keyen54739" <jimjenday@i...> wrote:
(which occur 33% more often than the Kx 2RfS); to make this error
would cost over 60 cents/hour, and you can't afford that when your
profit with best play is only $7/hr or so.
Many thanks to Blaw57, Timmer, Harry Porter, and Rockofjello for
responding to my question regarding the impact of two-card King high
(with penalty) and Ace high Royal holds in FPDW. Blaw57 asked about
whether my goal for a potential deviation from optimal strategy was
related to "fun" (maximizing chances of a Royal) or identifying when
such a strategy change was warranted based on a progressive Royal
payout. It is a little of both. I play predominantly .25 FPDW
progressive where the meter is typically around $1150 and rarely
goes above $1100. I might play 150,000 hands a year. My gambling
buddy plays otherwise perfect strategy but holds all two-card to a
Royal hands, based on the "fun" factor. I have always insisted on
perfect strategy. However, if the difference in value is virtually
nothing, I thought I might join him, and definitely would where the
progressive Royal rises high enough to eliminate the negative impact
of these strategy changes.
Based on the responses, I think I will hold all the KXs Royal hands
but continue to discard the AXs Royal hands unless the progressive
gets way up there.
I would have responded sooner but I have been on vacation.
Thanks.
-JD