vpFREE2 Forums

Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?

#1

It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?

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----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Probably more likely a 10 play $5 machine with a .4 edge.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:

It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

This sounds like a game, WWDD (What would Dancer Do).

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bogus" <boguslumber@...> wrote:

Probably more likely a 10 play $5 machine with a .4 edge.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@..." <rob.singer1111@> wrote:
>
> It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?
>
> ----- Reply message -----
> From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@>
> To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
> Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
> Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
> But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

#4

I would bet not all the DDB will have the same payout and he has a seat strategy or it is a high limit area.
I saw .25 6/5 JOB yesterday and it was occupied by someone, it was s progressive but not worth it. People see progressive and they go nuts.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111@yahoo.com" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:

It would seem this type of play would be 800 hph @ a $10 machine--or something very similar--with around a 2% "edge". My question would be, since not a whole lot of vp players would be playing something like that and the casino likely knows who will, is this promotion a casino error, or are they willingly for some reason expecting to take a bath with this $800/hour cash giveaway?

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Foxwoods NSUD:Can I get a tiny bit of help from someone with VP software?
Date: Sun, Jun 2, 2013 6:44 am
But I don't think I would have to try to follow Bob on this $800 an hour play as I'm about 99.99% sure that my bankroll don't fit the play.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Bob has not given any details on this play. What kind of a promotion is he working? Is it a drawing? Not likely. Is he getting a multiplier cashback. Did he receive a mailer offering so much cashback for so much wager? Is it a single line or multi-line play? How many hours does he figure to get in on the play, 8 hours, 20 hours, 100 hours or more?

My guess is it's a short term play. He's only going to get in so many hours. And I'm guessing that Bob is going to this play next week because it's the strongest play he has working for next week. And it's also my guess that this short term play is just one of maybe hundreds of short term plays he puts in in a year's time.

With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play. What would be significant is what his yearly stats look like, the total wager and the total return of all his short term plays.

Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.

#6

I dont think he should say at least before it is over. Laat thing he needs are a few teams combining bankrolls and grabbing the play. OTOH he did leave us
with a nice puzzle.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

Bob has not given any details on this play. What kind of a promotion is he working? Is it a drawing? Not likely. Is he getting a multiplier cashback. Did he receive a mailer offering so much cashback for so much wager? Is it a single line or multi-line play? How many hours does he figure to get in on the play, 8 hours, 20 hours, 100 hours or more?

My guess is it's a short term play. He's only going to get in so many hours. And I'm guessing that Bob is going to this play next week because it's the strongest play he has working for next week. And it's also my guess that this short term play is just one of maybe hundreds of short term plays he puts in in a year's time.

With variance being what it is I think it is insignificant whether he wins or loses on the play. What would be significant is what his yearly stats look like, the total wager and the total return of all his short term plays.

Good luck on the play, Bob. You certainly don't have to answer any of the above questions. Especially in advance of the play, since it might give away to much information to others. But perhaps, after you are done with the play, you could enlighten us to the details of the play in your Las Vegas Adviser column.

#7

Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.

I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL

Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .

However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.

Bob
                 
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

This is an example of short term variance versus long term variance taken from Arnold Snyder. If you watch someone flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times, that is a frequent occurrence within the realm of short term statistical probability.

But if you watch someone flip a coin 10,000 times and it comes up heads 7,000 times then either the coin or the coin tosser is crooked. The theoretical frequency of that occurrence is so infinitesimally small that it is a mathematical impossibility.

I keep stats on everything I play, put them on a spread sheet and use running totals. I always back up the theoretical with empirical results. I have one new progressive play that I've only found 53 playable numbers on. The theoretical for achieving my objective is 800 games. You can call 800 games the short term. You can call the 41,340 games total that I've played on the 53 plays the long term. I've averaged taking the jackpot off every 780 games. My shortest play was 6 games. My longest play was 5564 games. I took a beating on the play that went 5564 games. Out of the 53 plays I've had only 4 losing plays.

Should I pay attention to the one play where I got beat up? Or pay attention to the healthy profit I've averaged over the 53 plays. The short term beating is insignificant to me. It's the long term stats that I pay attention to.

#9

Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.

Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.

I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:

Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.

I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL

Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .

However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.

Bob
                 
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10

I'm sure we'll all hear about it after it's long gone. Which is, of course, what any of us would also do.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@...> wrote:

Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.

I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL

Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .

However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.

Bob
                 
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

Riviera would be my guess as the good play this weekend. Enjoy!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "djatcbbq" <djatcbbq@...> wrote:

Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.

Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.

I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
>
> Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
>
>
> I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
>
> Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
>
>
> However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
>
>
> Bob
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

#12

Maybe an Ultimate X somewhere with a good paytable and slot club benefits? I don’t want to learn the complicated strategy so we don’t play it but I see some knowledgeable pros playing this game. I have heard tell of some extremely severe losing streaks. You have to have a humongous bankroll and nerves of steel!!!!

···

------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

From: Lucy
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2013 11:03 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

Riviera would be my guess as the good play this weekend. Enjoy!

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "djatcbbq" <djatcbbq@...> wrote:

Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.

Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.

I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
>
> Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
>
>
> I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
>
> Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
>
>
> However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
>
>
> Bob
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

It's harder than most games. But the multiplier-independent strategy (99.82% for 9/6 DDB) isn't that much more difficult than Triple Double Bonus, imo. To squeeze out the last 0.05% of the return given the current multiplier state, now that's a challenge! And yes, variance on this is very rough, so I wouldn't want to touch it either.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/ultimate-x/double-double-bonus/

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Queen of Comps" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Maybe an Ultimate X somewhere with a good paytable and slot club benefits? I don’t want to learn the complicated strategy so we don’t play it but I see some knowledgeable pros playing this game. I have heard tell of some extremely severe losing streaks. You have to have a humongous bankroll and nerves of steel!!!!

------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

From: Lucy
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2013 11:03 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

Riviera would be my guess as the good play this weekend. Enjoy!

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "djatcbbq" <djatcbbq@> wrote:
>
> Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.
>
> Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.
>
> I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.
>
> --- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
> >
> > Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
> >
> >
> > I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
> >
> > Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
> >
> >
> > However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
> >
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

When I practice Ultimate X on my laptop, I swing 60,000 units at 10-play (15 royals).
...which is why I don't play 10-credits very often on Ultimate X.

From roughly July 2000 - March 2001 Bally's/Paris/Rio used to have full-pay Ultimate X Deuces .25/.50/1.00 (1.00 only at Rio), and I would play it occasionally. DDB 9/6 10-play is the best Ult game I've seen.

Mitchell

···

On Jun 4, 2013, at 8:30 PM, Queen of Comps wrote:

Maybe an Ultimate X somewhere with a good paytable and slot club benefits? I don’t want to learn the complicated strategy so we don’t play it but I see some knowledgeable pros playing this game. I have heard tell of some extremely severe losing streaks. You have to have a humongous bankroll and nerves of steel!!!!

#15

It's an all you can eat crab legs promotion. Bob is going into competitive eating, lol.
Seriously, there can only be 3-4 places with those clues and some of you likely have mailers from them that would sketch out the plan.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Queen of Comps" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Maybe an Ultimate X somewhere with a good paytable and slot club benefits? I don’t want to learn the complicated strategy so we don’t play it but I see some knowledgeable pros playing this game. I have heard tell of some extremely severe losing streaks. You have to have a humongous bankroll and nerves of steel!!!!

------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

From: Lucy
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2013 11:03 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

Riviera would be my guess as the good play this weekend. Enjoy!

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "djatcbbq" <djatcbbq@> wrote:
>
> Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.
>
> Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.
>
> I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.
>
> --- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
> >
> > Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
> >
> >
> > I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
> >
> > Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
> >
> >
> > However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
> >
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#16

I figured it out. It's a 7 Stars Norwegian Cruise with a 6/5 JOB game in the ship's high limit area, lol.

···

________________________________
From: richard d <cdgnpc@aol.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 4:48 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play
  

It's an all you can eat crab legs promotion. Bob is going into competitive eating, lol.
Seriously, there can only be 3-4 places with those clues and some of you likely have mailers from them that would sketch out the plan.

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "Queen of Comps" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

Maybe an Ultimate X somewhere with a good paytable and slot club benefits? I don’t want to learn the complicated strategy so we don’t play it but I see some knowledgeable pros playing this game. I have heard tell of some extremely severe losing streaks. You have to have a humongous bankroll and nerves of steel!!!!

------------------------------------------
Jean $¢ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

From: Lucy
Sent: Monday, June 03, 2013 11:03 PM
To: mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Bob Dancer's $800 An Hour Play

Riviera would be my guess as the good play this weekend. Enjoy!

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, "djatcbbq" <djatcbbq@> wrote:
>
> Now I understand why you charge a good amount for this information, and rightfully so. Information is the biggest commodity in advantage play. I'm assuming you didn't find this play cruising VPfree2 obsessively like I do lol. The last "good" play I heard of was a Joker Wild machine with a 1.6% edge but I am nowhere near that casino... But it pays to read every bit of information on forums to find great plays.
>
> Not that it matters much for me at the moment since my bankroll only supports FPDW.
>
> I enjoyed your book Million Dollar Video Poker and was wondering if you will ever be writing about your plays from the MGM Grand till the present.
>
> --- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Bob Dancer <bobdancervp@> wrote:
> >
> > Richard wrote: OTOH he did leave us with a nice puzzle.
> >
> >
> > I'll even give you a hint to help solve the puzzle. I promise it's in neither Utah nor Hawaii! LOL
> >
> > Whether I write it up in my blog after the fact or not depends on whether I believe it's repeatable. If I believe the casino may offer this promotion again, you can bet I'll keep quiet about it. It truly can not stand exposure to other big players. Most of the people here have no ability to play this particular game --- but some do and some know some who do and once the genie is out of the bottle . . .
> >
> >
> > However, if midway through the promotion the owner comes in screaming and barring everybody playing it (a la Jerry's Nugget a few years ago), it might make for a nice article afterwards.
> >
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]