vpFREE2 Forums

Flush Attacks: The Total Package

#41

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@>
>
> --> Micky adds the meter advance rate to determine the player's

theo

> for play. That's only true if the player is on a stand-alone

bank

AND
> sits down determined to play until they hit a RF each and every

time

> they sit down.
>
> Outside of that scenario, only a portion of the meter advance

rate

is
> appropriately added to base ER in determining their theo. That
> portion equals the advance rate x the fraction of a RF cycle that
will
> be played through in the current session. e.g., if the player
intends
> to play through 10,000 hands in the example above, then their

theo

is
> (100.53 + .5/4) = 100.65.
>
> (I leave off greater discussion of the reasoning behind this
assertion.)
>
> - Harry
>
>
The higher a royal meter goes the more action the banks gets.

That's

my experience. I much prefer to play when the bank is full. There
is a reason for it. I don't want to get tied up so long that I'm
using toothpicks to keep my eyes open.

Nine other players and myself sit down on a 10 machine bank. It's
dollar 9/6 Jacks progressive. The royal is at $6000 with a .5%
meter. We all play at 800 games per hour. Sure, there is some
variation, but I'll go with this example.

I can make some calculatons off of the above scenario.

Since we are all playing aggressive strategy, the expected number

of

games on the bank is about 33,000. Since we are all playing at

about

800 games per hour the average amount of time for a royal to hit
somewhere on the bank is about 4 hours.

The meter is rising at the rate of $200 per hour. I'm contributing
only $20 per hour to that meter and my competitors are collectively
contributing $180 per hour.

For one play this scenario doesn't mean much. But by putting your
money into play over and over again, in this kind of spot, you
protect your meter win.

The Club Cal-Neva/Reno used to have several quarter progressives

with

strong royal meters, 1%, 1.5%, and 2%, for the games involved.

Plays

developed frequently. I knew the numbers "the team" would come in
on. They were smart enough not to try and monopolize the whole
bank. We would jokingly "get mad" if they were late. They would
take about half the machines and us independent agents would take

the

rest. And the race was on.

Sure, I didn't get the royal most of the time. But I got my

share.

I protected my meter win in the process.

And it was only once in a blue moon when this old cat would miss

out

on some beauty sleep.

I am a newbie to this forum. While I have been playing vp for seeral
years, I never learned to understand the complexities. I have won 3
progressives.I thought bac & I believe each time, I was at banks that
either I was alone or only 2 - 3 others were at those banks. In
particular at the Silverton >>> I waited until the amounts were where
I felt the bank was ready to hit. I am retired & now wanting to learn
how to play the best way for serious money.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

#42

If each time they play until they hit or play through 10,000 hands,
whichever comes first, they realize only about 1/4% ER on the meter
advance. There's ultimately no meter benefit from earlier sessions in
which you didn't hit.

There's no marginal benefit. But the value of hands in previous
sessions includes the chance that one will hit the jackpot in future
sessions.

At the extreme, a player who sits down for only
100 hands of play each session will recognize only a negligible added
ER from the meter advance (when the base ER is measured against the
meter at the time they first sit down).

This could be taken to a further extreme by saying that there's only
negligible value from the meter movement of each hand. Still, as long
as one is playing one's "share," one will, on average, get the entire
value of the meter movement.

That math comes down to the addition from the meter advance being
equal to the meter rate x the probability that you'll hit during a
given session.

- Harry

It's not that simple if one might play for the same progressive in
future sessions.

#43

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
but I don't know how to evaluate it using the normal
tools. I will lay it out if anyone wants to give it a
shot.

Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins

RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

Regards

A.P.

#44

Albert Pearson wrote:

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
but I don't know how to evaluate it using the normal
tools. I will lay it out if anyone wants to give it a
shot.

Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins

RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

If I understand, these are the payouts from a 6 coin wager.

In that case, if you analyze it as if it were a 5 coin wager (using a
BP template), you merely multiply the resulting ER by 5/6 to determine
the true 6-coin ER.

No matter the wager, the max-ER strategy for this paytable will be the
same.

- H.

#45

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
but I don't know how to evaluate it using the normal
tools. I will lay it out if anyone wants to give it a
shot.

Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins

RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

Regards

A.P.

Normal analyzing programs do this just fine by first assuming it takes
5 coins to play, then subtracting 20% from the payback, and then
dividing the difference from 100% by 1.2. I come up with 97.42%.

#46

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins
RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

Look's close to STBP (Super Triple Bonus Poker), but the FP version has the
SF at 750 and the FH at 50. Return is 99.3453%. You can find all of the
Super Triple game payoffs here:
http://www.vpgenius.com/video-poker/games-4/
        Nudge

···

From: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Interesting pay table

#47

I come up with 97.43.
They have these type of games in Reno, but with much better pay tables. The downward spiral till you hit quads
is quite scary.

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "Albert Pearson" <ehpee@rogers.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 11:27 PM
Subject: [Norton AntiSpam] [vpFREE] Interesting pay table

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
but I don't know how to evaluate it using the normal
tools. I will lay it out if anyone wants to give it a
shot.

Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins

RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

Regards

A.P.

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#48

Sounds like Super Triple BP, and that's a lousy paytable. 10-5 with
750 coin SF is 99.345

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Albert Pearson <ehpee@...> wrote:

I found the following paytable in my latest travels,
but I don't know how to evaluate it using the normal
tools. I will lay it out if anyone wants to give it a
shot.

Pays are for max coin of 6(six) coins

RF - 4000
SF - 250 - may have been 300 can't remember
Quad A's - 1200
Quad 2,3,4's - 600
Other quads - 400
FH - 45
FL - 25
ST - 20
3K - 15
2PR - 10
JOB - 5

#49

* Theoretical is 100.6513% plus .5% meter, where does the .5% meter
number come from? Your explanation is terrific I read all of your inputs
kep it up

* john

···

_____

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
mickeycrimm
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 2:54 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 9/6 Jacks Progressive: Which Strategy Whould You Use?

--- In HYPERLINK "mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com"vpFREE@yahoogroups.-com,
"john" <schatsa@...-> wrote:
Could someone explain or show me where you get all these numbers to
do the calculations. Thank you.

> Both players only play when the Royal is at $6000. But they use
> different strategies. I used perfect cycles to come up with the
> numbers. Which strategy would you use?
>
> Player A uses the 6000 coin Royal strategy--and never changes.
> It produces a royal every 33,202 hands.

I use Winpoker for stuff like this. You can do the same on all
programs. I use Win because I've been using it the longest and it's
easy to go in and get a number.

Open up Win.
Click on Games.
Click on Jacks or Better.
Click on Options
Click on Change Paytables
Click on Default to make sure the payscale is right
Change the royal to 6000 coins then click on OK
Click on Analyze
Click on Game
You will now be on the Winpoker Game Analysis screen.
Click on Run Analysis

When the analysis is through go up to the Royal Flush line and scan
across to the "occurs every" column. It should say 33,201.94.

> The Variance is 47.

The variance is shown on the same screen. However, if I'm not
mistaken, variance is calculated at 600 games per hour. It it is
then the variance at 800 HPH would be higher.

> Theoretical is 100.6513% plus .5% meter.

This number is also on the Game Analysis screen.

> The royal represents 3.61% of the payback.

On the same screen, go back up to the Royal Flush line, and just to
the right of "occurs every" is the "% of Return" column. You will
see that the royal contributes 3.61% of the payback of the game.

> Loss rate between royals is 2.9587%.

Take the overall payback, 100.6513% and subtract 3.61%. It should
show 97.0413%. Subtacting 97.0413% from 100% shows a loss rate
between royals of 2.9587%.

> He plays at a constant 800 hands per hour.

Self explanatory.

> Loss rate between royals in hard currency: $118.35 per hour.

The total wager per hour is 800 HPH multiplied by the the $5 bet, or
$4000 per hour. 2.9587% of $4000 is $118.35.

> He will make a royal every 41.5 hours (33,202 divided by 800)

The math is already up here. A royal every 33,202 games divided by
800 HPH is 41.5 hours.

> Cost to produce royal: $4912 (33,202 X 5 X 2.9587%)

33,202 games multiplied by the $5 bet is a total wager per royal of
$166,010. 2.9587% of this number is $4912.

> He will put $830 in meter per royal. (33,202 X 5 X .5%)

0.5% of the total wager per royal ($166,010) is $830. Per the long
run you will accrue this money.

> Average royal will be: $6830

You start at $6000 everytime and average putting $830 in the meter
per royal. Hence, average royal is $6830.

> Average profit: $1918

Average royal is $6830, average cost is $4912. Subtracting $4912
from $6830 shows average profit at $1918.

> Hourly Rate: $46.22 per hour.

Average profit is $1918. You average a royal every 41.5 hours.
$1918 divided by 41.5 is an expectation of $46.22 per hour.

The math for player B works the same as above. EXCEPT, I must show
you how I calculated the 100.5342% theoretical. Player B uses
strategy based on a 4000 coin royal. However, the royal is at 6000
coins. So we take the extra $2000 and convert it into "units"
or "bets." $2000 divided by the $5 wager is 400. 400 divided by the
royal odds (40,391) shows an add-on of 0.99031%. Adding this number
to the base game (99.5439%) shows a theoretical of 100.5342%.

Practice on your programs to see if you can come up with the same
numbers I put up.

>
>
> PLAYER B uses the 4000 coin Royal Strategy--and never changes.
> It produces a royal every 40,391 hands.
> The Variance is 19.
> Theoretical is 100.5342 plus .5% meter.
> The royal represents 2.97% of the payback.
> Loss rate between royals is 2.4361%.
> He plays a constant 800 hands per hour.
> Loss rate between royals in hard currency: $97.44 per hour
> He will make a royal every 50.5 hours (40,391 divided by 800)
> Cost to produce royal: $4920
> He will put $1010 in the meter per royal. (40,391 X 5 X .5%)
> Average royal will be: $7010
> Average profit: $2090
> Hourly Rate: $41.39 per hour.
>
> Player A makes about $5 an hour more than Player B. But Player

A's

> loss rate between royals is about $21 an hour higher than Player
B.
>
> Which strategy should YOU use? That's up to you.
>
Could some one explain or show me where you get all these numbers

to

do the calculations thank you

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#50

I used a 9/6 Jacks progressive where the meter travels at one-half
percent for the example. When a meter travels at .5% on a dollar
progressive that means every hand you play is putting 2.5 cents into
the meter. This money is always returned to the public.

Imagine you play this progressive and you are the only one allowed to
play it. Your strategy produces a royal, per the average, every
33,202 games. That means there will be an average of $830 extra in
the meter per every time you make a royal. Consequently, it becomes
part of the equation when you are trying to figure out the
theoretical and the hourly rate of the game.

One of the problems with progressives is playing when the number is
low and the bank is not getting much action. It is your action that
is driving the number up. Then more people jump into he game and you
have more competition for the royal. I know there is an equation in
there somewhere but it is above me. It would just seem to me that
this cuts into your meter win.

I protect myself from this by waiting until the number is high enough
that the bank is getting lots of action. That way, while I am
driving the number up, so is everyone else.

* Theoretical is 100.6513% plus .5% meter, where does the .5%

meter

number come from? Your explanation is terrific I read all of your

inputs

kep it up

* john

On Behalf Of

mickeycrimm
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 2:54 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: 9/6 Jacks Progressive: Which Strategy Whould

you use

>
> > Both players only play when the Royal is at $6000. But they use
> > different strategies. I used perfect cycles to come up with the
> > numbers. Which strategy would you use?
> >
> > Player A uses the 6000 coin Royal strategy--and never changes.
> > It produces a royal every 33,202 hands.
>
>
I use Winpoker for stuff like this. You can do the same on all
programs. I use Win because I've been using it the longest and it's
easy to go in and get a number.

Open up Win.
Click on Games.
Click on Jacks or Better.
Click on Options
Click on Change Paytables
Click on Default to make sure the payscale is right
Change the royal to 6000 coins then click on OK
Click on Analyze
Click on Game
You will now be on the Winpoker Game Analysis screen.
Click on Run Analysis

When the analysis is through go up to the Royal Flush line and scan
across to the "occurs every" column. It should say 33,201.94.
>
>
> > The Variance is 47.
>
>
The variance is shown on the same screen. However, if I'm not
mistaken, variance is calculated at 600 games per hour. It it is
then the variance at 800 HPH would be higher.
>
>
> > Theoretical is 100.6513% plus .5% meter.
>
>
This number is also on the Game Analysis screen.
>
>
> > The royal represents 3.61% of the payback.
>
>
On the same screen, go back up to the Royal Flush line, and just to
the right of "occurs every" is the "% of Return" column. You will
see that the royal contributes 3.61% of the payback of the game.
>
>
> > Loss rate between royals is 2.9587%.
>
>
Take the overall payback, 100.6513% and subtract 3.61%. It should
show 97.0413%. Subtacting 97.0413% from 100% shows a loss rate
between royals of 2.9587%.
>
>
> > He plays at a constant 800 hands per hour.
>
>
Self explanatory.
>
>
> > Loss rate between royals in hard currency: $118.35 per hour.
>
>
The total wager per hour is 800 HPH multiplied by the the $5 bet,

or

$4000 per hour. 2.9587% of $4000 is $118.35.
>
>
> > He will make a royal every 41.5 hours (33,202 divided by 800)
>
>
The math is already up here. A royal every 33,202 games divided by
800 HPH is 41.5 hours.
>
>
> > Cost to produce royal: $4912 (33,202 X 5 X 2.9587%)
>
>
33,202 games multiplied by the $5 bet is a total wager per royal of
$166,010. 2.9587% of this number is $4912.
>
>
> > He will put $830 in meter per royal. (33,202 X 5 X .5%)
>
>
0.5% of the total wager per royal ($166,010) is $830. Per the long
run you will accrue this money.
>
>
> > Average royal will be: $6830
>
>
You start at $6000 everytime and average putting $830 in the meter
per royal. Hence, average royal is $6830.
>
>
> > Average profit: $1918
>
>
Average royal is $6830, average cost is $4912. Subtracting $4912
from $6830 shows average profit at $1918.
>
>
> > Hourly Rate: $46.22 per hour.
>
>
Average profit is $1918. You average a royal every 41.5 hours.
$1918 divided by 41.5 is an expectation of $46.22 per hour.

The math for player B works the same as above. EXCEPT, I must show
you how I calculated the 100.5342% theoretical. Player B uses
strategy based on a 4000 coin royal. However, the royal is at 6000
coins. So we take the extra $2000 and convert it into "units"
or "bets." $2000 divided by the $5 wager is 400. 400 divided by the
royal odds (40,391) shows an add-on of 0.99031%. Adding this number
to the base game (99.5439%) shows a theoretical of 100.5342%.

Practice on your programs to see if you can come up with the same
numbers I put up.

> >
> >
> > PLAYER B uses the 4000 coin Royal Strategy--and never changes.
> > It produces a royal every 40,391 hands.
> > The Variance is 19.
> > Theoretical is 100.5342 plus .5% meter.
> > The royal represents 2.97% of the payback.
> > Loss rate between royals is 2.4361%.
> > He plays a constant 800 hands per hour.
> > Loss rate between royals in hard currency: $97.44 per hour
> > He will make a royal every 50.5 hours (40,391 divided by 800)
> > Cost to produce royal: $4920
> > He will put $1010 in the meter per royal. (40,391 X 5 X .5%)
> > Average royal will be: $7010
> > Average profit: $2090
> > Hourly Rate: $41.39 per hour.
> >
> > Player A makes about $5 an hour more than Player B. But Player
A's
> > loss rate between royals is about $21 an hour higher than

Player

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "john" <schatsa@...> wrote:

> B.
> >
> > Which strategy should YOU use? That's up to you.
>

#51

Flush50 is the strategy used for playing straight through or sweeping
flush attacks. It is predicated on the average flush paying 50 coins.
Using the 101.8% version this is what you would punch into a program to
analyze and get the strategy: RF 800, SF 50, 4 Aces 160, Small Quads,
80, Generic Quads 50, FH 8, FL 10, ST 4, 3K 3, 2P 1, HP 1.

On the linked-bank game Flush125 is the strategy used when the bank is
in Flush Attack Mode. It is predicated on the flush paying 125 coins.
Using the 101.8% version this is what you would punch into a program to
analyze and get the strategy: RF 800, SF 50, 4 Aces 160, Small Quads,
80, Generic Quads 50, FH 8, FL 25, ST 4, 3K 3, 2P 1, HP 1.

Flush 125 is ALSO the strategy you would use on a STAND ALONE if you
found a Motel 6. OR IS IT? Remember, a Motel 6 is where someone
triggered the machine into flush attack mode then walked off. So it
would seem that on these plays you would use the Flush125 strategy,
wouldn't it. Well, this is what the math looks like:

Using Flush125 you are at 134.9% and will play an average of 42 games
to produce a flush.

Using Flush50 you are at 129% and will play an average of 55 games to
produce a flush.

34.9% of 42 is a yield of 14.658 bets.

29% of 55 is a yield of 15.95 bets.

So it appears that, in the case of Motel 6's, max EV in not the best
way to go.

I was fooling around with the calculator one day and discovered this
little conundrum. From then on I used flush 50 on the Motel 6's. It
made it a lot easier on the brain just using one strategy for the sweep
and for Motel 6's.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

#52

READING THE MACHINES TO GET A SHORT TERM PLAY

This is a linked bank trick, not alot of flush attackers know about it, and it takes some explaining. Imagine you are playing on a linked bank. All the other machines are vacant. No one else is playing. You trigger flush attack mode. If you look at all the other machines you will see that in the upper half of the screens they all say "FLUSH ATTACK, next flush gets 125 coin

bonus." The same as your machine.

Then you make a flush. You get payed 125 coins. Now you look at the
upper half of the screens on all the other machines. You will see that they are totally blank. Just clear blue background.

You pull a quarter out of your pocket and insert it into the machine
beside you. You play one hand and stop. You will now notice that the upper half of that screen is flashing "Play 5 Coins." The rest of the machines on the bank will not start flashing "Play 5 Coins" until they get action. And that's the trick. You can tell if a machine has had action since the last time the bonus flush got hit.

So you walk into a casino and up to a bank of 14 linked flush attacks who just happen to all be vacant. You walk up and down the row checking to see how many machines got played since the last light. You look in the bottom left corner to see how many coins the last player was playing on each machine. Half of them show 5-ooin action. The rest show 1, 2, and 3 coin action.

Conclusion? The next flush is going to turn the light on. That is, if you are betting 5 coins. But the bank is also giving every indication that there is 13 or 14 points worth of flush in it. Making one or two 1-coin flushes will probably turn the light on. Which way should you go? That's up to you.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
_________________

You walk by the same 14 machine bank a little later. There are 4

players. Two appear to be hustler types and two appear to be ploppie types. Not a very good game to exploit. But how about a short term play. Read the other machines to see how much action the bank has had since the last time the light was on. If most or all are flashig "Play 5 Coins." The light will probably be on in a minute or two. Grab a seat and play one light.

For just one light it doesn't mean that much. But 20 or 25 shots a
week like this and the money adds up. Good luck.

#53

PROMOTIONS

Even if there is just one stand alone flush attack in a house if there
is a promotion going on you have to analyze itto see if the flush
attack fits the situation. For instance, say you get a drawing ticket for every 100 coin or 125 coin or better hit. You make a quad every 429 games and a bonus flush every 220 games. So you will get a drawing ticket every 145 games.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

#54

AVOIDING FILLS

I never saw a flush attack that was TITO. If you are just feeding in

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

bills as you play, cashing out and taking the coins to the change
booth, you are creating alot of fill situations. Because you are
always cashing out something. The least you would cash out is 125
coins. But you are cashing out much, much more alot of times. You
hit quads every 429 hands.

If you are sweeping a couple of times a day you are gonna keep the
hired help real busy. And they can get annoyed at someone who is
creating so many fills.

So you have to do some handfeeding. But how much? When you feed
coins into the machine you need to listen to what is happening
below. If you hear a clanging sound, that is the sound of the coins bouncing off the side of the hopper---the hopper is very low. If you hear a sound like coins swishing around in your pocket the hopper is full and you don't have to do so much handfeeding.

You don't attract so much attention this way.