vpFREE2 Forums

First five years of VP in the books

#1

I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
similar data I know I would be interested in it.

I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of course
some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and Tunica.
Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:

239 "days" of gambling
106 losing days
10 break even days (+/- $10)
133 winning days

Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD

Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd place
($5,000)
Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA

Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
Total win/loss -$5,455
Total cash back $12,499
Total bounce back $22,104
Overal Result $29,148
Percentage 1.63%

Comps based on what I value them at $14,438

Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)

I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals behind.

#2

I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
similar data I know I would be interested in it.

I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of

course

some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and

Tunica.

Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:

239 "days" of gambling
106 losing days
10 break even days (+/- $10)
133 winning days

Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD

Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd

place

($5,000)
Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA

Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
Total win/loss -$5,455
Total cash back $12,499
Total bounce back $22,104
Overal Result $29,148
Percentage 1.63%

Comps based on what I value them at $14,438

Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)

I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals

behind.

----------------------------------------------

gilbert wrote:
...just wondering if your stats are based on PERFECT PLAY or
NEAR-PERFECT PLAY or some other type of PLAY mode?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@...> wrote:

#3

The results are actuals. I base my expected on perfect play
less .1%. I use .2% for Double Jokers and AA.

>
> I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
> some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
> similar data I know I would be interested in it.
>
> I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of
course
> some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
> bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done

almost

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@> wrote:
> exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
> 50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and
Tunica.
> Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:
>
> 239 "days" of gambling
> 106 losing days
> 10 break even days (+/- $10)
> 133 winning days
>
> Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
> Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD
>
> Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd
place
> ($5,000)
> Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA
>
> Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> Total win/loss -$5,455
> Total cash back $12,499
> Total bounce back $22,104
> Overal Result $29,148
> Percentage 1.63%
>
> Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
>
> Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
> Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)
>
> I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
> there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
> playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
> action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals
behind.
>----------------------------------------------

gilbert wrote:
...just wondering if your stats are based on PERFECT PLAY or
NEAR-PERFECT PLAY or some other type of PLAY mode?

#4

I really enjoyed reading your statistics, but what is bounce back?

kiwiboy4921 <waynes@kiwiplan.com> wrote: I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
  some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
  similar data I know I would be interested in it.
  
  I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of course
  some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
  bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
  exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
  50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and Tunica.
   Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:
  
  239 "days" of gambling
  106 losing days
  10 break even days (+/- $10)
  133 winning days
  
  Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
  Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
  Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD
  
  Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd place
  ($5,000)
  Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
  Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA
  
  Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
  Total win/loss -$5,455
  Total cash back $12,499
  Total bounce back $22,104
  Overal Result $29,148
  Percentage 1.63%
  
  Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
  
  Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
  Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)
  
  I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
  there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
  playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
  action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals behind.

···

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#5

when you come back to the casino. Usually only good for a very limited
time. Sometimes only on certain days of the week.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Smith <cacardman@...> wrote:

I really enjoyed reading your statistics, but what is bounce back?

Bounceback usually refers to casino mailings for cash (or free play)

#6

Dead on! I've probably collected less than 50% of my bounce back due
to the fact that the nearest playable casino is over an hour a way.
It's just not worth the drive for the $10 or $25 dollars. I've
collected 100% of my cash back.

I also inlcuded tournament wins and promo cash under bounce back
because I was too lazy to start another column!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "howardwstern" <howard.w.stern@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bob Smith <cacardman@> wrote:
>
> I really enjoyed reading your statistics, but what is bounce back?
>
> Bounceback usually refers to casino mailings for cash (or free play)
when you come back to the casino. Usually only good for a very limited
time. Sometimes only on certain days of the week.

#7

your post was very interesting.

One question:

You say you are 6 to 7 royals behind---however, you have had more
winning days then loosing days. I was always under the assumption
that playing video poker would produce more loosing days( 4 to 1?)---
but the occasional royal flush would make up for the loosing days

I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
similar data I know I would be interested in it.

I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of

course

some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and

Tunica.

Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:

239 "days" of gambling
106 losing days
10 break even days (+/- $10)
133 winning days

Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD

Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd

place

($5,000)
Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA

Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
Total win/loss -$5,455
Total cash back $12,499
Total bounce back $22,104
Overal Result $29,148
Percentage 1.63%

Comps based on what I value them at $14,438

Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)

I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals

behind.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@...> wrote:

#8

kiwiboy4921 wrote:

Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
Total win/loss -$5,455
Total cash back $12,499
Total bounce back $22,104
Overal Result $29,148
Percentage 1.63%

Comps based on what I value them at $14,438

Congrats on the great results and kudos on the fine record keeping.

Having an accurate map of where you've been improves prospects you'll
successfully find your way to your goals. (At minimum you'll repeat
past mistakes less frequently :wink:

Should it be presumed that the $5K tourney win is accounted for as
bounce back (and explains, in part, why this value is so strong)?

Overall, pulling 2% from outside of the machine itself is exceptional
and is the stuff winners are made from!

- H.

#9

Kiwiboy's stats and a recent loosing streak have me thinking...

Since I started playing in May of this year, I've been up as much as $4138.
I got there within two months of playing by getting extremely lucky with a
few RF hits.

Since that time, in just three months, I've had a $7638 swing into the
negative. Right now, I'm down $3500 for the year. I'm actually playing
more than I did when I got $4K+ into the positive, but I've not hit a single
royal since.

Recently, I've noticed that I'll just get hammered by the machines...ten,
fifteen, twenty non-paying hands IN A ROW...not even a "Jacks or Better" or
"Two Pair" even paying win. Nothing. And, a few streaks like that in a
single session (yes...it seems to happen multiple times per session) will
KILL my bankroll that I've given myself for that day's play.

I consider myself a reasonably skilled player. I don't play 100% pristine
perfect, but I do practise and continue to learn, and I play a 90% plus
perfect game. I've also been playing 99% or better pay tables...and mostly
100%+ games since I started my downward spiral at the .25 (mostly) and .50
level.

Now, I've had some good days when I get up $200, $300, $500, $700. But, a
lot of these times, I end up loosing a good chunk or all of my winnings and
initial coin-in by continuing to play. Am I shooting myself in the foot?

It seems to me that if I continue to "play off my winnings" that I should
continue to swing up and down and hover in the vicinity of my initial
overall bankroll. But, I just seem to always end up with $0 and down for
the day. Or, I'll have a $200 positive day, followed by three $300-$500
negative days.

So, when do all of you decide to quit? When you're up by $X amount? When
you've hit X hand? Or, am I the only one who ends up loosing by continuing
to play after hitting good hands? What gives? Tell me what you do, and
what your secret is to bankroll preservation. Or, at least just tell me
that a $7600 downswing is normal for a mostly .25 player. :wink:

As it is, I feel like calling it quits forever...

#10

It's the concept of a "day" that's misleading. When I visit the local
Indiana casino's I only play for a few hours (because ADT doesn't
matter). When I play in Vegas I average over 10 hours per day. My
winning days in Indiana are more a "hit and run" with a few bucks of
profit. But in Vegas it's not uncommon to drop $500 to $1000 in a day
which wipes out all these small "hit and run" days. It shows why the
quit while you are ahead approach doesn't work in the long run. Lots
of small wins erased by some big losses.

So despite a 50% win per day ratio my "trips" to AC/Vegas/Tunica which
last at least 3 days I only average a winning trip every 4th time
(i.e. 3 out of 4 or losing).

VP is very streaky as you suggest. When I first started I dropped $3K
of my $4K bankroll in the first 6 months until I hit my first royal.
If I'd had lost the other thousand I would have stopped and never
played again. Not sure if I was lucky or unlucky on that one :wink:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sheiky2" <sheiky2@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@> wrote:

>your post was very interesting.

One question:

You say you are 6 to 7 royals behind---however, you have had more
winning days then loosing days. I was always under the assumption
that playing video poker would produce more loosing days( 4 to 1?)---
but the occasional royal flush would make up for the loosing days

> I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
> some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
> similar data I know I would be interested in it.
>
> I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of
course
> some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
> bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
> exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
> 50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and
Tunica.
> Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:
>
> 239 "days" of gambling
> 106 losing days
> 10 break even days (+/- $10)
> 133 winning days
>
> Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
> Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD
>
> Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd
place
> ($5,000)
> Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA
>
> Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> Total win/loss -$5,455
> Total cash back $12,499
> Total bounce back $22,104
> Overal Result $29,148
> Percentage 1.63%
>
> Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
>
> Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
> Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)
>
> I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
> there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
> playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
> action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals
behind.
>

#11

Harry

You assume correctly. I should have created another column for Tourney
wins and Promo wins. It's all lumped under Bounce back due to
laziness. I've played in 12 tournaments over the years and always
equate the EV as part of the formula of should I play or not. I've
had one 3rd place for $5,000, one 9th place for $1,000 and a couple of
small $100/$50 wins. These are all included in this column. I guess
I should consider myself "lucky" here as most tournaments I have
entered are in the $100 to $400 ER range (usually $50K/$100K
tournament with 200 to 500 people entered). A lot of my trips
especially to Caesars LV (in the old days) relied on Tournaments and
BBC to make the trip "EV positive".

A lot of oppertunities have presented themselves over the years to
make me "lucky". I'm a big fan of research and paytable checking.
I'm sure Paladin or Mr Dancer have more interesting stories than I do.
But I've "found" some pretty good plays around the country. 50-Play
5c 8/5 Super Aces with 1% cash back and 0.25% bounce back, FPDW Triple
play progressives etc... Almost all are mistakes by casinos and don't
last long. There was a play in Tunica a few months back where on
certain days of the week they were giving out 15% cash back. Hard to
lose on that one :slight_smile: Alas that didnt' last long and I tried to milk it
rather than hammer it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

kiwiboy4921 wrote:
> Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> Total win/loss -$5,455
> Total cash back $12,499
> Total bounce back $22,104
> Overal Result $29,148
> Percentage 1.63%
>
> Comps based on what I value them at $14,438

Congrats on the great results and kudos on the fine record keeping.

Having an accurate map of where you've been improves prospects you'll
successfully find your way to your goals. (At minimum you'll repeat
past mistakes less frequently :wink:

Should it be presumed that the $5K tourney win is accounted for as
bounce back (and explains, in part, why this value is so strong)?

Overall, pulling 2% from outside of the machine itself is exceptional
and is the stuff winners are made from!

- H.

#12

Oh, the bounce back column also inlcudes coupon runs. I do a lot of
these, especially match plays and win cards. During my last trip to
Vegas my Dad and I made $480 on coupon runs. It does add up!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@...> wrote:

Harry

You assume correctly. I should have created another column for Tourney
wins and Promo wins. It's all lumped under Bounce back due to
laziness. I've played in 12 tournaments over the years and always
equate the EV as part of the formula of should I play or not. I've
had one 3rd place for $5,000, one 9th place for $1,000 and a couple of
small $100/$50 wins. These are all included in this column. I guess
I should consider myself "lucky" here as most tournaments I have
entered are in the $100 to $400 ER range (usually $50K/$100K
tournament with 200 to 500 people entered). A lot of my trips
especially to Caesars LV (in the old days) relied on Tournaments and
BBC to make the trip "EV positive".

A lot of oppertunities have presented themselves over the years to
make me "lucky". I'm a big fan of research and paytable checking.
I'm sure Paladin or Mr Dancer have more interesting stories than I do.
But I've "found" some pretty good plays around the country. 50-Play
5c 8/5 Super Aces with 1% cash back and 0.25% bounce back, FPDW Triple
play progressives etc... Almost all are mistakes by casinos and don't
last long. There was a play in Tunica a few months back where on
certain days of the week they were giving out 15% cash back. Hard to
lose on that one :slight_smile: Alas that didnt' last long and I tried to milk it
rather than hammer it.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> kiwiboy4921 wrote:
> > Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> > Total win/loss -$5,455
> > Total cash back $12,499
> > Total bounce back $22,104
> > Overal Result $29,148
> > Percentage 1.63%
> >
> > Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
>
> Congrats on the great results and kudos on the fine record keeping.
>
> Having an accurate map of where you've been improves prospects you'll
> successfully find your way to your goals. (At minimum you'll repeat
> past mistakes less frequently :wink:
>
> Should it be presumed that the $5K tourney win is accounted for as
> bounce back (and explains, in part, why this value is so strong)?
>
> Overall, pulling 2% from outside of the machine itself is exceptional
> and is the stuff winners are made from!
>
> - H.
>

#13

Kiwiboy's stats and a recent loosing streak have me thinking...

Thinking is good. Sounds like it is past due to examine a few
things.

1) What are the games you are playing? Variance and ER?

2) Are you playing them well enough to approach the ER? Your
stated "90%" of perfect is giving up an awful lot of ev. And are
you taking advantage of the things that take you into a positive
expectation when playing a slightly negative game?

3) What is your bank roll, both real and psychological? Take
advantage of the bankroll links in vpFREE and elsewhere to determine
whether your BR is in line with your current playing habits. Maybe
you need to step down a denomination? Maybe you need to switch to a
game with slightly lower EV, but lower BR requirement?

Maybe you're just having a bad run. Bad runs are part of vp, but if
you are serious about you vp play you need to examine your BR and
play and make any relevant adjustments.

Now, I've had some good days when I get up $200, $300, $500, $700.
But, a

lot of these times, I end up loosing a good chunk or all of my

winnings and

initial coin-in by continuing to play. Am I shooting myself in

the foot?

Again you need to take some time to examine. Are you playing in a
negative situation or one that you don't have a realistic BR for?
Maybe you are shooting yourself in the foot.

It seems to me that if I continue to "play off my winnings" that I

should

continue to swing up and down and hover in the vicinity of my

initial

overall bankroll.

No, whether you are playing a negative or positive expectation, your
BR can go through wild swings. A very good reason to examine your
BR.

So, when do all of you decide to quit? When you're up by $X

amount? When

you've hit X hand? Or, am I the only one who ends up loosing by

continuing

to play after hitting good hands? What gives? Tell me what you

do, and

what your secret is to bankroll preservation. Or, at least just

tell me

that a $7600 downswing is normal for a mostly .25 player. :wink:

My personal secret to to "bankroll preservation" is taking advantage
of the resources that are available to me --My own brain (as lacking
as it sometimes seems to my purposes), the brains and works of other
vp players everywhere, and those tasty scraps that the casinos throw
to me.

I quit when I get tired, disgusted, annoyed, stop having fun, I've
hit my psychological roll for the day, I'm hungry, I'm thirsty, I
feel to good to just play vp, I need daylight and air, my butt
hurts... The reasons are infinite and most can be disregarded for a
while if the play is especially juicy.

As it is, I feel like calling it quits forever...

This is an option that for some could make perfect sense.

Chandler

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Nathan O. Roemer" <public@...> wrote:

#14

It seems to me that if I continue to "play off my winnings" that I

should

continue to swing up and down and hover in the vicinity of my initial
overall bankroll.

It's a common misperception that in the long run, the results should
be breakeven for a breakeven gamble. Because the standard deviation
increases the more you play (sd=sqrt(variance x hands)), in the long
term there will be one or the other result, either you will be busted
or the casino will cut you off for winning too much, and the odds are
directly related to the proportion of those two amounts. For example,
if your total stop loss limit is 10 grand and the casino will cut you
off if you win 20 grand, long term odds are 2-to-1 (~66%) that you
will lose 10 grand and 1-to-2 (~33%) that you will win 20 grand. The
long term odds of you breaking even are zero. Note that the casino
gets breakeven results, for every two losers of 10 grand they have to
pay off one "lucky" 20 grand winner.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Nathan O. Roemer" <public@...> wrote:

#15

BTW, you can simulate this effect for yourself using:
http://members.aol.com/lotsie/GamblersRuin.html
Try double bonus, stake=$500, retire=$1000, hit run and watch the
middle shrink before your eyes!

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Nathan O. Roemer" <public@> wrote:
> It seems to me that if I continue to "play off my winnings" that I
should
> continue to swing up and down and hover in the vicinity of my initial
> overall bankroll.

It's a common misperception that in the long run, the results should
be breakeven for a breakeven gamble. Because the standard deviation
increases the more you play (sd=sqrt(variance x hands)), in the long
term there will be one or the other result, either you will be busted
or the casino will cut you off for winning too much, and the odds are
directly related to the proportion of those two amounts. For example,
if your total stop loss limit is 10 grand and the casino will cut you
off if you win 20 grand, long term odds are 2-to-1 (~66%) that you
will lose 10 grand and 1-to-2 (~33%) that you will win 20 grand. The
long term odds of you breaking even are zero. Note that the casino
gets breakeven results, for every two losers of 10 grand they have to
pay off one "lucky" 20 grand winner.

#16

Kiwiboy's stats and a recent loosing streak have me thinking...

Is a loosing streak the opposite of a tighting streak?

#17

We are going ti Horseshoe Indiana....any info?

kiwiboy4921 <waynes@kiwiplan.com> wrote: It's the concept of a "day" that's misleading. When I visit the local
Indiana casino's I only play for a few hours (because ADT doesn't
matter). When I play in Vegas I average over 10 hours per day. My
winning days in Indiana are more a "hit and run" with a few bucks of
profit. But in Vegas it's not uncommon to drop $500 to $1000 in a day
which wipes out all these small "hit and run" days. It shows why the
quit while you are ahead approach doesn't work in the long run. Lots
of small wins erased by some big losses.

So despite a 50% win per day ratio my "trips" to AC/Vegas/Tunica which
last at least 3 days I only average a winning trip every 4th time
(i.e. 3 out of 4 or losing).

VP is very streaky as you suggest. When I first started I dropped $3K
of my $4K bankroll in the first 6 months until I hit my first royal.
If I'd had lost the other thousand I would have stopped and never
played again. Not sure if I was lucky or unlucky on that one :wink:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sheiky2" <sheiky2@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@> wrote:
>
> >your post was very interesting.
>
> One question:
>
> You say you are 6 to 7 royals behind---however, you have had more
> winning days then loosing days. I was always under the assumption
> that playing video poker would produce more loosing days( 4 to 1?)---
> but the occasional royal flush would make up for the loosing days
>
>
> > I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and thought
> > some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else has
> > similar data I know I would be interested in it.
> >
> > I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons. Of
> course
> > some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16 hour
> > bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done almost
> > exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a little
> > 50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and
> Tunica.
> > Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:
> >
> > 239 "days" of gambling
> > 106 losing days
> > 10 break even days (+/- $10)
> > 133 winning days
> >
> > Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
> > Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> > Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD
> >
> > Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for 3rd
> place
> > ($5,000)
> > Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> > Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA
> >
> > Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> > Total win/loss -$5,455
> > Total cash back $12,499
> > Total bounce back $22,104
> > Overal Result $29,148
> > Percentage 1.63%
> >
> > Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
> >
> > Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
> > Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)
> >
> > I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got me
> > there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won" when
> > playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of my
> > action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7 royals
> behind.
> >
>

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#18

Thank You!

I think that it is called a "losing streak".

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

>Kiwiboy's stats and a recent loosing streak have me thinking...

Is a loosing streak the opposite of a tighting streak?

#19

"Then" is increasingly being used where "than" used to be. I suppose
that's how language evolves.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

>Kiwiboy's stats and a recent loosing streak have me thinking...

Is a loosing streak the opposite of a tighting streak?

Thank You!

I think that it is called a "losing streak".

#20

Never played at that Shoe. My local casino's are around Cincy. I
would recommend Grand Vic, rising sun at the moment. There are some
good plays there at the moment. Belterra USED to be a good spot for
VP but the slot manager does not want VP players anymore.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Money Works <worksforthemoney@...>
wrote:

We are going ti Horseshoe Indiana....any info?

kiwiboy4921 <waynes@...> wrote: It's

the concept of a "day" that's misleading. When I visit the local

Indiana casino's I only play for a few hours (because ADT doesn't
matter). When I play in Vegas I average over 10 hours per day. My
winning days in Indiana are more a "hit and run" with a few bucks

of

profit. But in Vegas it's not uncommon to drop $500 to $1000 in a

day

which wipes out all these small "hit and run" days. It shows why

the

quit while you are ahead approach doesn't work in the long run.

Lots

of small wins erased by some big losses.

So despite a 50% win per day ratio my "trips" to AC/Vegas/Tunica

which

last at least 3 days I only average a winning trip every 4th time
(i.e. 3 out of 4 or losing).

VP is very streaky as you suggest. When I first started I dropped

$3K

of my $4K bankroll in the first 6 months until I hit my first

royal.

If I'd had lost the other thousand I would have stopped and never
played again. Not sure if I was lucky or unlucky on that one :wink:

>
>
> >your post was very interesting.
>
> One question:
>
> You say you are 6 to 7 royals behind---however, you have had

more

> winning days then loosing days. I was always under the

assumption

> that playing video poker would produce more loosing days( 4 to

1?)---

> but the occasional royal flush would make up for the loosing

days

>
>
> > I have just reached by 5th year anniversary of VP play and

thought

> > some people might find the stats interesting. If anyone else

has

> > similar data I know I would be interested in it.
> >
> > I keep a journal which lists each days play for tax reasons.

Of

> course
> > some days might be a couple of hours and others might be a 16

hour

> > bender. I started gaming in September of 2002 so I have done

almost

> > exactly 5 years playing 100% VP only, mainly 5c/25c and a

little

> > 50c/$1. I've played 90% of the the time in Indiana, Vegas and
> Tunica.
> > Here are the numbers including cash back and bounce back cash:
> >
> > 239 "days" of gambling
> > 106 losing days
> > 10 break even days (+/- $10)
> > 133 winning days
> >
> > Worst days 06/04/07 -$1,500 Red Rock 50c 10/7 DB
> > Worst days 11/10/04 -$1,420 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> > Worst days 12/29/04 -$1,220 Grand Vic IN $1 NSUD
> >
> > Best days 09/23/07 $4,500 Red Rock 25c FPDW - Tournament for

3rd

> place
> > ($5,000)
> > Best days 10/08/06 $3,875 Caesars 25c Triple Play 9/6 JOB STP
> > Best days 01/01/06 $1,890 LV Hilton 25c AA
> >
> > Total coin in for 5 years $1,789,657
> > Total win/loss -$5,455
> > Total cash back $12,499
> > Total bounce back $22,104
> > Overal Result $29,148
> > Percentage 1.63%
> >
> > Comps based on what I value them at $14,438
> >
> > Worst Year 2005 -$2,143 (no 25c or higher royals all year)
> > Best Year 2006 $12,184 (14 x 25c royals)
> >
> > I was positive 4 out of 5 years but it was CB and BB that got

me

> > there. In fact, I have only had 1 year where I actually "won"

when

> > playing. Every other year was below 100% despite over 50% of

my

> > action being FPDW and 10/7 DB. Statistically I'm 6 to 7

royals

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sheiky2" <sheiky2@> wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@> wrote:
> behind.
> >
>

---------------------------------
Building a website is a piece of cake.
Yahoo! Small Business gives you all the tools to get online.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]