vpFREE2 Forums

Final post on this..or any other subject

#1

'Twas ever thus...publish an unpopular opinion and you not only get
disagreed with (naturally), but also get reviled, insulted, and
statements made about your character, ancestry, etc. etc. etc.

My observations on the video poker scene are based on more ACTUAL
EXPERIENCE than all but four or five of the people who post on this
board. I KNOW dozens of people who, after making a profit for
several years, are no longer winning. Just about everyone I have
asked has hit several less royals than their play should generate.
My royal frequency for 2002-2003 is one in 155,000. Should I just
pass all this data off as thirty or forty people all
getting "unlucky" simultaneously? Or should I at least ENTERTAIN
another explanation???

I realize that the very nature of Las Vegas encourages people to
think subjectively and not analytically; no one is unemotional or
dispassionate about Las Vegas, including myself. That's why I think
I get these deeply emotional responses when I "attack" people's
favorite playground.

At any rate, it is obvious I've been talking to a collective brick
wall. No one is interested in the truth. Fine: but why do so many
people have to resort to nastiness and name-calling when they
disagree? Is it the anonymity of the Internet that allows certain
people, who only maintain a mask of civility in social situations,
to drop that mask when safely on one side of a computer screen?

I guess I shouldn't feel any sense of regret about the fact that
people will come roaring into Vegas, WinFrugalMegaStrategy
software/books/cards/inspirational tapes clutched in hand, seeing,
when they enter the casino, not row upon row of video poker
machines, but rather, hundreds of personal ATM machines just WAITING
to be unloaded. Ah, but the reality is so very much less exciting!

The one thing that makes me kind of incredulous is the ongoing
assumption that casinos have been putting up with positive
expectation VP and advantage VP players for years without doing
anything about them. We all KNOW how cheerful the casinos are about
losing their money! Yet, everyone thinks all the casinos are lily-
white in their ethics and practices. WHY do people impute a level of
honesty to CASINOS that they do not also impute to virtually every
other public institution, including (but not limited to) politicians
and government, large corporations, retail businesses, organized
religion, etc. etc. etc.??? It blows my mind that people think this
group of Mafia thugs and swindlers is above suspicion!! Maybe
because they all wear such nice suits, and stylish pinky rings???

Anyway, if anyone wants to discuss this or any other subject, I will
welcome e-mails, but PLEASE, if you have nothing to contribute other
than some kind of personal insult, control yourself, kick the dog or
whatever else you normally do to work off aggression, and hit the
DEL key and go back to the kiddie porn site.

I am leaving this board for the above reasons, but the primary one
is the utter lack of civility. I am betting with myself, and someone
else can let me know if they want (since I won't be able to verify
it), that there will be at least two posts on the board that say
nothing but "Nyahh! Nyahh! Good riddance! I'm glad he's gone!"

I wish everyone good luck trying to "beat Vegas", because reliance
on good luck is the only effective weapon you have left.

---Kevin L

#2
#3

> My royal frequency for 2002-2003 is one in 155,000. Should I just
> pass all this data off as thirty or forty people all
> getting "unlucky" simultaneously?

All of this can be analyzed. There is an area of statistics that
deals with this. In essence, it tests the hypothesis that the
game is honest. When very large numbers of very bad results
take place, this mathematics more or less says that the game is
not honest. I went through this in Kansas City. My former wife
and I had a very strong bad run. She calculated the likelihood
of some of our results. The numbers were UGLY. One method we used
to analyze this was to look at return on all hands ignoring royals.
This gets into the 'long-run' much more quickly. Our results were
about in the 1 in 1000 range for no RF's. They were also in the
1 in 1000 range for hands with RF's. Those numbers are not totally
independent (for example getting dealt KQJT on All American will
increase both results) Nevertheless, multiplying these numbers
cannot be far wrong when analyzing the chances of running this
bad on RF hand AND non RF hands. So, we were roughly running
in the million to 1 unlucky range.

I stopped playing at this casino and contacted the Missouri gaming
commission. These discussions prompted them to test these machines
(or at least they told me that they did so). They said the games were
honest. I then returned to that casino and everything seemed OK.
Maybe they warned the casino, maybe we were just very unlucky.
I tend to believe that someone was given a warning and the games
were fixed. Sorta like telling a resturaunt when the health
inspector is coming.

> It blows my mind that people think this
> group of Mafia thugs and swindlers is above suspicion!! Maybe
> because they all wear such nice suits, and stylish pinky rings???

Actually, I am more worried about the gaming commission. I fear they
may no longer be the vigilant watchdog they are supposed to be. I
really never have trusted the casinos much, but I have tended to
think they have a legitimate reason to behave themselves.

> I wish everyone good luck trying to "beat Vegas", because

reliance

> on good luck is the only effective weapon you have left.
>

I don't know your data or the validity of those you have spoken to.
My experience has not been so negative. Furthermore, it seems many
of the pros and semi pros I know are also continuing to see the sorts
of results one should expect. I do know that it IS getting tougher
out there. The frequency of strong plays is dropping and one really
has to diversify to maximize his return. I still play with a large ER
on quarter games and I don't play high denomination games with a low
ER, even though these may have a higher hourly EV. When you do this,
long losing streaks are much more likely. I am not saying that is a
bad way to play, but it does require a thicker skin.

Your personal RF cycle of appx 150,000 hands is pretty low, but
how many hands does it cover? Over a million hands sounds like
a very bad, but more or less normal run. Over 2 million hands
makes me think that your results do warrant concern. This is
yet another reason why I am a strong proponent of diversification.
If one casino does decide to cheat, your exposure is minimal.

Quadzilla

#4

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "quadzilla_666" <quadzilla666@e...>
wrote:

> > My royal frequency for 2002-2003 is one in 155,000. Should I
> > just pass all this data off as thirty or forty people all
> > getting "unlucky" simultaneously?

><snippage of some very good material, Brevity>

Your personal RF cycle of appx 150,000 hands is pretty low, but
how many hands does it cover? Over a million hands sounds like
a very bad, but more or less normal run. Over 2 million hands
makes me think that your results do warrant concern. This is
yet another reason why I am a strong proponent of diversification.
If one casino does decide to cheat, your exposure is minimal.

Quadzilla

"I hit two royals with in 20 minutes once, perhaps the machines
are rigged. I should call gaming!"

some people just dont realize how big of a reoccuring field they are
dealing with in these games. lets glimps at royal frequency. Say a
person plays a strategy perfectly which gives him a royal frequency
of 1 in 60,000. So he expects to hit a royal once in every 60,000
hands. Simple grade school statistics tells us that it is quite
possible, in fact it is mandatory, that you will go 3 times this
length between royals every 99.7 or so cycles on average. thats
180,000 hands. this is less than a 1 in 100 ocurrance. It becomes
clear how many cycles have to pass befor their numbers become
statistically significant.

Ever seen the same number come up twice in a row on a roulette tote
board? any one who has spent any time in a casino and looked has.
this is a much greater than a 1 in 100 occurance. how about 3 times
in a row? Yes, it happens all the time. 1 in 1000 ocurrances are
every day things in the casino world.

Bottom line: This is where the gamble lies in +ev video poker. If
you arent willing to put up with this kind of battering perhaps you
shouldnt be playing this game.

+ev~(;^D) timmer