vpFREE2 Forums

Feeling Guilty - Trip Report

#1

Rick Bronstein, talking about short pay games and long term/short term wrote .....

I don't believe in long term because I can't sit at a machine and
grind things out for 2000 hours. Each time I sit down is a new short
term session.

I disagree with the first sentence. It doesn't matter if you play the machine for 2000 hours or not. There is a long
term expected value for the game you are playing. I do agree with the second sentence.

Your math is correct IF one believes in long term. I don't believe
that you can add up the sessions and have them become just one long
term ratio. If I have unlimited resources, unlimited time and a
large number of machines, then long term works because it can happen
in just a few days.

Whether you belief it or not doesn't determine whether something is true or not. As far as adding up
sessions, what are really doing is adding up a whole lot of 1 hand 'sessions'. For each 'session' ( in 9/6
JOB) the Expected value of the hand is .9954 times the amount bet. I am using expected value to mean
average value. Maybe the term expected value is what is confusing. Even though the expected value is .9954,
it is impossible to get that value after playing one hand, or ten hands or 100 hands. If we take the value to
be exactly .9954 and we are betting $1.25 per hand, we have to play a whole lot of hands before we can be
at the actual expected value. We can be close to the expected value after 1 hand if we get a high pair. But to
at exactly the expected is very difficult to do. The more hands you play, the more likely you are to be close to
the expected value expressed as a percentage of coin in.

John Zaroff
Delphi Electronics and Safety
313-996-3682 (w)
313-378-2987 ( Cell)
3133782987@vtext.com ( text page)

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#2

Whether you belief it or not doesn't determine whether something is

true or not.

I think many people have difficulty with the long term concept because
of the huge influence that variance has on the specific experience of
each player. This experience can vary so greatly that the same two
people, playing side by side for hours (even days or weeks), can have
far different results, purely by chance. The person playing the "poor"
game may even do better ... be luckier.

A variance of 30 or 40 is huge, compared to an EV of 1. In most
statistical analysis the variance is a tiny fraction of the average,
not 30 or 40 times bigger than the average. So it may take hundreds of
thousands of hands (and possibly a million or more) before the expert
player succeeds in squeezing out the luck factor. Still, it always
makes sense to play games with a high FH, FL, etc. if for no other
reason than it lets you play longer.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Zaroff, John" <John.G.Zaroff@...> wrote:

#3

Please you guys! Stop feeding the troll!!