vpFREE2 Forums

Feeling Guilty - Trip Report

#1

I spent a few nights over Presidents' Weekend at the Rio with the
intention of playing some video poker. I've read a lot of material
about playing only on "good" machines because that's the only way to
win.

In the past, I have spent HOURS at FPDW and rarely had a winning
trip. I kept telling myself that if I just spend enough time, I must
win.

Anyway, I was at the Rio and found myself at a multigame machine with
a 7/5 BP schedule and a similar low schedule for DDB. Clearly
something an advantage player would steer clear of. I started out
with $1 bets at BP, then the same for DDB. After losing a few
hundred I increased to bets of $2.

Wouldn't you know it, after losing two sessions of $700, I found
myself once again increasing to $2 due to bad "luck" at $1. Perhaps
all the stories are true...you can't win at bad machines.

Well, lo and behold, I held the ace of clubs and the "bad" machine
filled in 4 cards for an $8,000 royal! Being of reasonable
intelligence (I thought), I quit playing for the night.

I had about 20 minutes to kill before taking my friends to a very
expensive dinner the next evening. I had not played all day. So I
went to another "bad" machine. I lost at $1 and progressed my bet to
$2. This time I held 3 to a royal and found myself yet another
$8,000 richer! It was even better as my friends got to watch the
payout.

Here's the guilty part. Since I was playing machines that I couldn't
win with, I feel I should give back the money and spend the rest of
my gambling life losing on better machines. Since it's only the non-
existent long term that matters, this money is not deserved.

I would have been much better off playing for hours and hours at the
Palms so that maybe, if I was lucky, a $1,000 royal on 25 cent FPDW
would allow me to break even for the trip.

Gotta go to church now and pray for forgiveness.

Rick

#2

Worst post ever. And I've only been here two weeks.

Brian J. Haagbrian_haag@yahoo.com

···

----- Original Message ----
From: Rick Bronstein <rick@greensky.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2006 9:26:30 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Feeling Guilty - Trip Report

I spent a few nights over Presidents' Weekend at the Rio with the
intention of playing some video poker. I've read a lot of material
about playing only on "good" machines because that's the only way to
win.

In the past, I have spent HOURS at FPDW and rarely had a winning
trip. I kept telling myself that if I just spend enough time, I must
win.

Anyway, I was at the Rio and found myself at a multigame machine with
a 7/5 BP schedule and a similar low schedule for DDB. Clearly
something an advantage player would steer clear of. I started out
with $1 bets at BP, then the same for DDB. After losing a few
hundred I increased to bets of $2.

Wouldn't you know it, after losing two sessions of $700, I found
myself once again increasing to $2 due to bad "luck" at $1. Perhaps
all the stories are true...you can't win at bad machines.

Well, lo and behold, I held the ace of clubs and the "bad" machine
filled in 4 cards for an $8,000 royal! Being of reasonable
intelligence (I thought), I quit playing for the night.

I had about 20 minutes to kill before taking my friends to a very
expensive dinner the next evening. I had not played all day. So I
went to another "bad" machine. I lost at $1 and progressed my bet to
$2. This time I held 3 to a royal and found myself yet another
$8,000 richer! It was even better as my friends got to watch the
payout.

Here's the guilty part. Since I was playing machines that I couldn't
win with, I feel I should give back the money and spend the rest of
my gambling life losing on better machines. Since it's only the non-
existent long term that matters, this money is not deserved.

I would have been much better off playing for hours and hours at the
Palms so that maybe, if I was lucky, a $1,000 royal on 25 cent FPDW
would allow me to break even for the trip.

Gotta go to church now and pray for forgiveness.

Rick

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#3

you are wasting your time with VP, video keno is where the real money is made.

You might check out the Big Wheel also, for advanced players only.

···

On 3/17/06, Rick Bronstein <rick@greensky.com> wrote:

I spent a few nights over Presidents' Weekend at the Rio with the
intention of playing some video poker. I've read a lot of material
about playing only on "good" machines because that's the only way to
win.

In the past, I have spent HOURS at FPDW and rarely had a winning
trip. I kept telling myself that if I just spend enough time, I must
win.

Anyway, I was at the Rio and found myself at a multigame machine with
a 7/5 BP schedule and a similar low schedule for DDB. Clearly
something an advantage player would steer clear of. I started out
with $1 bets at BP, then the same for DDB. After losing a few
hundred I increased to bets of $2.

Wouldn't you know it, after losing two sessions of $700, I found
myself once again increasing to $2 due to bad "luck" at $1. Perhaps
all the stories are true...you can't win at bad machines.

Well, lo and behold, I held the ace of clubs and the "bad" machine
filled in 4 cards for an $8,000 royal! Being of reasonable
intelligence (I thought), I quit playing for the night.

I had about 20 minutes to kill before taking my friends to a very
expensive dinner the next evening. I had not played all day. So I
went to another "bad" machine. I lost at $1 and progressed my bet to
$2. This time I held 3 to a royal and found myself yet another
$8,000 richer! It was even better as my friends got to watch the
payout.

Here's the guilty part. Since I was playing machines that I couldn't
win with, I feel I should give back the money and spend the rest of
my gambling life losing on better machines. Since it's only the non-
existent long term that matters, this money is not deserved.

I would have been much better off playing for hours and hours at the
Palms so that maybe, if I was lucky, a $1,000 royal on 25 cent FPDW
would allow me to break even for the trip.

Gotta go to church now and pray for forgiveness.

Rick

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#4

Keep playing 7/5 Bonus Poker and your guilty conscience will be
relieved in short order.

I spent a few nights over Presidents' Weekend at the Rio with the
intention of playing some video poker. I've read a lot of

material

about playing only on "good" machines because that's the only way

to

win.

In the past, I have spent HOURS at FPDW and rarely had a winning
trip. I kept telling myself that if I just spend enough time, I

must

win.

Anyway, I was at the Rio and found myself at a multigame machine

with

a 7/5 BP schedule and a similar low schedule for DDB. Clearly
something an advantage player would steer clear of. I started out
with $1 bets at BP, then the same for DDB. After losing a few
hundred I increased to bets of $2.

Wouldn't you know it, after losing two sessions of $700, I found
myself once again increasing to $2 due to bad "luck" at $1.

Perhaps

all the stories are true...you can't win at bad machines.

Well, lo and behold, I held the ace of clubs and the "bad" machine
filled in 4 cards for an $8,000 royal! Being of reasonable
intelligence (I thought), I quit playing for the night.

I had about 20 minutes to kill before taking my friends to a very
expensive dinner the next evening. I had not played all day. So

I

went to another "bad" machine. I lost at $1 and progressed my bet

to

$2. This time I held 3 to a royal and found myself yet another
$8,000 richer! It was even better as my friends got to watch the
payout.

Here's the guilty part. Since I was playing machines that I

couldn't

win with, I feel I should give back the money and spend the rest

of

my gambling life losing on better machines. Since it's only the

non-

existent long term that matters, this money is not deserved.

I would have been much better off playing for hours and hours at

the

Palms so that maybe, if I was lucky, a $1,000 royal on 25 cent

FPDW

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Bronstein" <rick@...> wrote:

would allow me to break even for the trip.

Gotta go to church now and pray for forgiveness.

Rick

#5

Very funny, Eric. Rick, you'll probably be needing my new
book "Advanced Strategy For Playing the ATM's"

you are wasting your time with VP, video keno is where the real

money is made.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Eric <fieldcommand@...> wrote:

You might check out the Big Wheel also, for advanced players only.

On 3/17/06, Rick Bronstein <rick@...> wrote:

#6

Eric <fieldcommand@gmail.com> wrote: you are wasting your time with VP, video keno is where the real money is made.

You might check out the Big Wheel also, for advanced players only.

···

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  Damn, you guys are a bit scarcasm challenged, no? I thin Rick has his tougue pretty firmly in his cheek on this one. If 7-5 bonus is all that is available and you hit a couple of royals for $16,000 it should allow for some pretty extended .25 DW play down the road.
   
  Wouldn't we all kill for some of that lightning?!
   
  FWIW, I have found a new game as well. Last weekend I spent 3 days being pounded pretty hard - to the tune of a couple thousand - so before bed on my last night I stumbled over to the Megabucks machine and slipped in a hundred. First pull - $600, 5th pull $300, off to bed.
   
  I'd rather be lucky that good - and even a blind pig finds an acorn now and then. Try it - you might get lucky too!
   
  SK

---------------------------------
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Bring photos to life! New PhotoMail makes sharing a breeze.

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#7

Lots of tongue firmly in-cheek in the TR, and many of you don't get
it. It's really too obvious to have to explain. I say BRAVO -- I was
LMAO at the trip report.

Dave

Eric <fieldcommand@...> wrote: you are wasting your time with

VP, video keno is where the real money is made.

You might check out the Big Wheel also, for advanced players only.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  Damn, you guys are a bit scarcasm challenged, no? I thin Rick

has his tougue pretty firmly in his cheek on this one. If 7-5 bonus
is all that is available and you hit a couple of royals for $16,000
it should allow for some pretty extended .25 DW play down the road.

   
  Wouldn't we all kill for some of that lightning?!
   
  FWIW, I have found a new game as well. Last weekend I spent 3

days being pounded pretty hard - to the tune of a couple thousand -
so before bed on my last night I stumbled over to the Megabucks
machine and slipped in a hundred. First pull - $600, 5th pull $300,
off to bed.

   
  I'd rather be lucky that good - and even a blind pig finds an

acorn now and then. Try it - you might get lucky too!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Kent <bayfieldkent@...> wrote:

   
  SK

---------------------------------
Yahoo! Mail
Bring photos to life! New PhotoMail makes sharing a breeze.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Just having a little fun Steve. I've had my share of luck too. 3
Royals in less than four hours twice on single line. 9 Royals in
one month on single line up at the lake. Once, when walking through
the Edgewater/Laughlin I ran into a friend who told me there was a
progressive at $3500. It was a bank I didn't know about. I walked
over, stuck in a twenty, popped the Royal on the third hand. How
lucky is that? If I don't run into my friend I don't even know it's
there. Same thing happened when I was down on the riverwalk in
Laughlin. Ran into a friend who told me there was a $3100 Royal at
River Palms. I walked up and hit it in less than half an hour. All
of the above were in positive ER situations.

A friend and I found FPJW quarter spinpoker in Atlantis/Reno. 4
machines, two in one spot, 2 in another spot. We played for two
weeks, me in one spot, him in the other. No team play. He did his
thing and I did my thing. They literally changed the payscales
right out from under me. They changed the other three while I was
playing the one. They didn't say anything to me. They were just
waiting until I was through playing to change that one. I decided
to just drag up. I finished $1600 stuck. My friend finished
$20,000 winner. His royal rush killed the play, the lucky....

Eric <fieldcommand@...> wrote: you are wasting your time with

VP, video keno is where the real money is made.

You might check out the Big Wheel also, for advanced players only.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  Damn, you guys are a bit scarcasm challenged, no? I thin Rick

has his tougue pretty firmly in his cheek on this one. If 7-5 bonus
is all that is available and you hit a couple of royals for $16,000
it should allow for some pretty extended .25 DW play down the road.

   
  Wouldn't we all kill for some of that lightning?!
   
  FWIW, I have found a new game as well. Last weekend I spent 3

days being pounded pretty hard - to the tune of a couple thousand -
so before bed on my last night I stumbled over to the Megabucks
machine and slipped in a hundred. First pull - $600, 5th pull $300,
off to bed.

   
  I'd rather be lucky that good - and even a blind pig finds an

acorn now and then. Try it - you might get lucky too!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Kent <bayfieldkent@...> wrote:

#9

I tried to reply to this earlier and want to thank you for the book
offer. Guess people write about things they know.

Let me point out that I make about 6-8 trips to casinos per year and my
ONLY goal is to win. I don't want to try for a .1% advantage because
it would take me about 3 lifetimes to put in the time necessary. Also,
I don't believe in long-term. We all play numerous short-term sessions.

My real point I wanted to make is that it's not the machine you play.
A couple of percentage points over a million hands is meaningless to
me. Show me the money NOW!

That being said, I would rather play full pay machines (not necessarily
100% EV) than short ones due to the short term fluctuations. But I'll
play what is available. 4 aces on a 9/6 DDB pays the same as on a
9/7. And I don't play for a full house.

I played 100% EV machines for years. I almost always played at the
quarter level and spent hours hoping for a win. Now I play short term
at higher denominations and stop with a profit most of the time. In my
last 5 trips I have 4 wins, 1 loss.

I hope everyone wins every time and trust that you all wish the same
for me.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

Very funny, Eric. Rick, you'll probably be needing my new
book "Advanced Strategy For Playing the ATM's"

#10

Rick,
   
  I'm not a math person, but I found your statement (snipped below) so intruiging that I set up a spreadsheet and did the math. I know that a percentage point seems like a small number, but they really do add up.
   
  Here's what I found:
   
  If you play 1,000,000 hands of quarter VP ($1.25 bet per hand), if you have a 0.1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $1,250. If you have a 1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $12,500. If you have a 3% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $37,500. If you have a 5% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $62,500.
   
  Now, let's say you play dollars. Here's how the same numbers play out. If you have a 0.1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $5,000. If you have a 1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $50,000. If you have a 3% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $150,000. If you have a 5% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $250,000.
   
  I also did the math assuming that you played $5 (= $25 per hand). The numbers are just too depressing to post.
   
  Seriously, I wish you all the luck in the world because statistically, if you keep playing high denom VP on short pay machines AND if you don't try to play using at least at the optimal level, you're really going to need it.
   
  Best,
  Lainie

···

Rick Bronstein <rick@greensky.com> wrote:
    A couple of percentage points over a million hands is meaningless to me.

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#11

  If you play 1,000,000 hands of quarter VP ($1.25 bet per hand),

if you have a 0.1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $1,250. If
you have a 1% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $12,500. If you
have a 3% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $37,500. If you have
a 5% disadvantage, you can expect to lose $62,500.

I understand the long term implications. My point was that by not
worrying about it, I won $16,000. It would not have been any more or
less if the machines were 100% or 98%.

I don't believe in long term because I can't sit at a machine and
grind things out for 2000 hours. Each time I sit down is a new short
term session.

Your math is correct IF one believes in long term. I don't believe
that you can add up the sessions and have them become just one long
term ratio. If I have unlimited resources, unlimited time and a
large number of machines, then long term works because it can happen
in just a few days.

But...casinos have gone broke even if the "odds" are in their favor.

My original tongue in cheek post was to point out that you can win
even on short pay machines. You don't need to be a slave to EV and
slot clubs. When I started playing smart instead of by the "book", I
started to win.

Thank you for a serious post and I appreciate the discussion.

#12

  Wouldn't we all kill for some of that lightning?!
   

Obviously, serious vp players will seek out and play machines with the best pay tables
available. But what interests me most about Rick's post is the idea that plugging away at the
quarter level, even with positive expectation games, is generally a losing proposition.

I realize that Rick's approach is not original, but is the notion of a "lightning" strategy (move
up to a higher denomination machine, wait for luck to strike, and cash out with a profit) not
the best way to approach a high volatility game such as video poker? The player would have
to observe a strict loss limit to mitigate the downside of losing a great deal of money waiting
for a major win. And that is, of course, the real issue here. Would losses swamp the "lightning
player" most of the time before he or she gets a chance for a lucky hit?

That being said, it seems to me that the only real advantage a player has over the casino is
the decision about when to stop playing, and this strategy directly addresses that advantage.

#13

Hi Rick,

for what it is worth, i tend to agree with your philosophy. my "long
term" is however long i happen to be at any particular machine. and
i feel that the minute i leave said machine i am beginning anew each
time.

of course not everyone looks at it this way. but i think it is up to
the individual to ascribe to whatever philosophy makes them feel
better at the end of the day.

just like with religion, there are many different ways to worship at
the altar of the video poker Gods! :wink:

Paul

I don't believe in long term because I can't sit at a machine and
grind things out for 2000 hours. Each time I sit down is a new

short

term session.

Your math is correct IF one believes in long term. I don't

believe

that you can add up the sessions and have them become just one

long

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Bronstein" <rick@...> wrote:

term ratio.

#14

When I started playing smart instead of by the "book", I

started to win.

Thank you for a serious post and I appreciate the discussion.

If by "smart", you mean setting a loss limit and a win goal and
sticking to them, I agree. OTOH, not caring about paytables (if
better ones are available, that is) is just throwing money away.

That said, most of the time I combine loss limit, win goal, and best
paytables I can find as my "optimal" strategy. Of course, I also
play slots and keno at the Bell'agio.

I say play how you want -- loved the "TR" by the way.

Dave

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Bronstein" <rick@...> wrote:

#15

<<I understand the long term implications. My point was that by not
worrying about it, I won $16,000. It would not have been any more or less
if the machines were 100% or 98%.>>

You would have won exactly 5 coins less for every full house and flush.

<<Your math is correct IF one believes in long term. I don't believe that
you can add up the sessions and have them become just one long term ratio.>>

There are many areas of life where people can differ in their beliefs and
still have a great chance of success. Mathematics is not one of them.

<<But...casinos have gone broke even if the "odds" are in their favor.>>

I'm not aware of any. Which casinos have gone broke?

Cogno

#16

From the Las Vegas Review Journal: $50 million in debt, the Castaways
declared bankruptcy. When it closed in January 2004 seven months after
the bankruptcy filing, some 800 people were left unemployed.

I seem to recall the Alladin also bit the dust.

However, I don't think either of these were due to advantage VP players.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

I'm not aware of any. Which casinos have gone broke?

#17

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@...>
wrote:

<<But...casinos have gone broke even if the "odds" are in their

favor.>>

I'm not aware of any. Which casinos have gone broke?

Cogno

The Silver Legacy was supposed to bring more people to Reno. At least
that's what the experts said. It actually had the effect of
cannibalizing several smaller casinos that had to shut down for lack
of business. Duke's in Sparks shut it's doors a few times. It's been
shuttered this time for about two years. Fitz in Reno went into
receivership. There are a few other small casinos in Reno sitting
shuttered.

They didn't close because they lost money gambling. The recurring sum
of net edge times volume equals the earn. Lack of volume did them
in. The best year for Reno (Washoe County) was 2000 with a
$650,000,000 gaming win. It's probably under $500,000,000 now.
That's the effect the new Indian casinos in California had on Reno.

#18

>
> Very funny, Eric. Rick, you'll probably be needing my new
> book "Advanced Strategy For Playing the ATM's"
>
I tried to reply to this earlier and want to thank you for the

book

offer. Guess people write about things they know.

Okay, you got me back on that one, Rick. Touche!

Let me point out that I make about 6-8 trips to casinos per year

and my

ONLY goal is to win. I don't want to try for a .1% advantage

because

it would take me about 3 lifetimes to put in the time necessary.

Also,

I don't believe in long-term. We all play numerous short-term

sessions.

I'm a ful-time gambler since 92. Combination poker/video poker.
I've never had a losing year playing video poker.

My real point I wanted to make is that it's not the machine you

play.

A couple of percentage points over a million hands is meaningless

to

me. Show me the money NOW!

That being said, I would rather play full pay machines (not

necessarily

100% EV) than short ones due to the short term fluctuations. But

I'll

play what is available. 4 aces on a 9/6 DDB pays the same as on a
9/7. And I don't play for a full house.

I played 100% EV machines for years. I almost always played at

the

quarter level and spent hours hoping for a win. Now I play short

term

at higher denominations and stop with a profit most of the time.

In my

last 5 trips I have 4 wins, 1 loss.

I hope everyone wins every time and trust that you all wish the

same

for me.

Sure, good luck. But I think the headcount for Las Vegas visitors
is approaching 40,000,000 per year now. All employing similar
tactics. We're still building casinos for all those winnners.

    "Luck is for suckers" - Minnesota Fats

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Bronstein" <rick@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:

#19

For January, Clark County win was 988 million, up 25%, Washoe County
was 78 million, up 15%, South Lake Tahoe was 29 million, up 92%.

http://gaming.nv.gov/documents/pdf/mrrjan06.pdf

That's the win they report for tax purposes, who knows how much is
under the table.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@>
wrote:

> <<But...casinos have gone broke even if the "odds" are in their
favor.>>
>
> I'm not aware of any. Which casinos have gone broke?
>
> Cogno
>

The Silver Legacy was supposed to bring more people to Reno. At least
that's what the experts said. It actually had the effect of
cannibalizing several smaller casinos that had to shut down for lack
of business. Duke's in Sparks shut it's doors a few times. It's been
shuttered this time for about two years. Fitz in Reno went into
receivership. There are a few other small casinos in Reno sitting
shuttered.

They didn't close because they lost money gambling. The recurring sum
of net edge times volume equals the earn. Lack of volume did them
in. The best year for Reno (Washoe County) was 2000 with a
$650,000,000 gaming win. It's probably under $500,000,000 now.
That's the effect the new Indian casinos in California had on Reno.

#20

Let me point out that I make about 6-8 trips to casinos per year

and my

ONLY goal is to win. I don't want to try for a .1% advantage

because

it would take me about 3 lifetimes to put in the time necessary.

Also,

I don't believe in long-term. We all play numerous short-term

sessions.

Maybe I don't understand you here. Are you saying that VP games are
not random and hence standard statistics does not apply?

My real point I wanted to make is that it's not the machine you

play.

A couple of percentage points over a million hands is meaningless

to

me. Show me the money NOW!

I also don't understand this point. Does this mean you're willing to
lose more money over time for an increased chance of winning today?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Bronstein" <rick@...> wrote: