The current opportunity was a 3-play $0.25 Super-Aces with 75 basis points (0.75%) in cash back. I was prepared to bang away at 1,600 base hands per hour for 8 hours and I guesstimate it was about $40 an hour in positive expectations.
Three things caused to me cancel my trip:
(a) the variance for super-aces is very high
(b) about 9.5% of the return was tied up in quad aces (not counting about 2% for the RF)
(c) I had to drive over 2 hours, camp out at the machine until the promo started, and then drive 2 hours back.
On the plus side, it was 1,600 base hands an hour so I would hit 4,800 hands per hour and at 8 hours I would almost play a royal cycle meaning I would have a good shot at nailing my quad aces. Plus I would get a lot of comps.
One hour before my trip, I bailed because I was tired of constantly chasing these opportunities from the wear and tear on my body. There's more to life than about $40 an hour from hitting 1,600 base hands per hour. A part of me was still uncomfortable with Super Aces' variance -- it's about a 11.5% drain without RF or quad aces!!!!
I decided to take a break and rest up for a single-line $1 9/6-90 JOB at 800 hph promo next week. While the cash back is only 20 basis points (0.20%), the variance was much, much lower. Time for me to smell the roses!